SPAC: OLA - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

99P INVEST 150127 1200 15.4S 156.3E SHEM 15 1010

[euro6208]

99P INVEST 150128 0000 15.2S 156.7E SHEM 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 28 January 2015
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 31 January 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low in the central Coral Sea is currently moving to the east away from
the Queensland coast. The low is expected to slightly strengthen during the
next few days, but poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Very low

[euro6208]

99P INVEST 150128 0600 16.8S 157.7E SHEM 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.8S 159.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 516 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION BROADLY WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 290300Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. AN OLDER 282228Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOT) CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1355 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 160.0E
AT 291200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND OVERALL ORGANINSATION HAS IMPROVED
PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.


GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 17.3S 161.2E MOV E AT 06 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 17.5S 161.5E MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC 17.6S 161.7E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 17.8S 161.8E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ONTROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 292000 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1947 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 160.4E
AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN LAST
12 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER PRIMARY BANDS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTEND TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 16.4S 161.2E MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 17.5S 161.5E MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 17.6S 161.7E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 17.8S 161.8E MOV SE AT 02 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ONTROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 300200 UTC.

99P INVEST 150129 1800 16.2S 160.5E SHEM 25 999

Since this is located east of 160E, RSMC Nadi may name this Odile.

[jaguarjace]

Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PORT VILA

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map Number 3 issued at 5:58 pm VUT Friday 30 January 2015



Remarks:
Based of the current forecast track, the system is expected to remain west of Vanautu, and does not
pose any direct threat to any island of Vanuatu. Heavy rainfall is expected over Northern and
Central Vanuatu group. A severe weather warning remains current.

[jaguarjace]

10P TEN 150130 1800 17.2S 161.5E SHEM 35 996


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1936 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 161.4E
AT 301800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 24 HOURS WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTEND TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, PT AND MET AGREE.
THUS, YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 18.4S 161.7E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 19.3S 162.0E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 20.1S 162.3E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 20.8S 162.4E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ONTROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 310200 UTC.

[euro6208]

When was the last time New Caledonia got a direct hit from a cyclone?

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone OLA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 37 issued 2310 UTC Friday 30 January 2015



10P OLA 150131 0000 17.5S 161.5E SHEM 40 993

[euro6208]

10P OLA 150131 1200 18.1S 161.9E SHEM 50 985

[euro6208]

TPPS10 PGTW 312118

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (OLA)

B. 31/2032Z

C. 19.47S

D. 162.18E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, ADDED .5 FOR WHITE TO YIELD A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone OLA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 43 issued 0721 UTC Sunday 1 February 2015



10P OLA 150201 0600 20.5S 162.3E SHEM 80 963


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0751 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA 09F CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 162.1E AT 010600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE
47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES
ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG GIVING DT=4.5, PT AND MT
AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 21.7S 162.1E MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 22.8S 161.9E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 23.7S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 24.5S 160.9E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
0114000 UTC.

[Iune]

Hmm... the next name on the list was supposed to be "Odile" instead of "Ola"; this is the second storm in a row that RSMC Nadi has named with a name not on the list. I wonder if the next storm will indeed be named "Pam" now.