SIO: FUNDI - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

Edit: Re-using this thread by changing title to 92S.

[jaguarjace]

92S INVEST 150205 0600 20.4S 37.5E SHEM 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 857
WTIO30 FMEE 060634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2015/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/06 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/07 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/07 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 37.2 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
SINCE LAST NIGHT, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM NR09, ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 05/1840Z SHOW A VERY DYSSIMETRIC LOW LEVEL WINDS
FIELD PATTERN, WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
MONSOON FLOW, AND MODERATE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
(10/15 KT AT THE MET STATION OF EUROPA).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 30AOC SST. UP TO 25S, THE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION (WEAK UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE
EASTWARD). TOMORROW, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AND ON SUNDAY, THE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BUILT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
AN IRREGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO FORECAST UP TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SLOW DOWN TODAY AND TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD, AND
THEN POLEWARD SATURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY, BUT IS LESS AND LESS FORECASTED.
ANOTHER SPELL OF HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO HIT THE WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THIS WEEK, OVER WATER SATURATED SOILS.=
NNNN



92S INVEST 150206 0600 21.4S 41.6E SHEM 25 1004

[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7S 41.2E TO 24.9S 43.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.4S 41.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
38.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE DEVELOPED
CIRCULATION AND BETTER CONVECTION, AS WELL AS SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT
BANDING, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONCEALED BY THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE 060429Z SSMIS, MID-LEVEL
TURNING IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE MSI. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER
060228Z ISS RSCAT SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF INTENSE (25 TO 30 KTS) WINDS
ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW (10
TO 15 KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THERE IS MODERATE (20 KTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND GOOD SSTS, LEADING TO AN OVERALL CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070900Z.//
NNNN

[wyq614]

Upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi

WTIO30 FMEE 061304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/07 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/07 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/08 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/09 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/02/11 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED FUNSI AT 12Z BY THE MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.
THE SYSTEM CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION STRENGTHENING AND WRAPPING CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THE MET STATION AT MOROMBE RECORDED 995.5HPA (CORRECTED FROM THE
BAROMETRIC TIDE) AT 11Z.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 30AOC SST. UP TO 25S, THE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION (WEAK UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE
EASTWARD). TOMORROW, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AND ON SUNDAY, THE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BUILT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
AN INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO FORECAST UP TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD, AND
THEN POLEWARD SATURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.=

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 932
WTIO30 FMEE 070644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 42.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/07 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 34.0 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/09 18 UTC: 33.9 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 38.6 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/02/12 06 UTC: 41.3 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5+
0417Z F18 MICROWAVE SWATH SHOWS A TILD EXISTING BETWEEN LLCC AND MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTR
E AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
WITHIN THE SAME TIME, HUMID MONSOON INFLOW IS NOW LIMITED BY A TERRESTRIAL PATH AND MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR AIR IS ADVECTED BY THE WEST (REFER TO METEOSAT7 IRWV)
AT 0600Z METEOSAT7 VISIBLE IMAGERY, VORTEX IS PARTIALLY EXPEOSED AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS M
AINLY REJECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY KEEPS HOWEVER VERY ACTIVE FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR IN THE
CONVERGENCE AREA BETWEEN MONSOON FLOW AND FUNSI CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS. UP TO 26S, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS GOOD
ENOUGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY UP TO 30S.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX ENOUGH AS IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY ...
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND, OVER COOLER SST AND AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FUNDI SHOULD ST
ART TO LOOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
UP TO MONDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SAME TRACK OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND TOWARDS A WEAKNESS LOCATED NEAR 45E. FUNDI SHOULD ACCELERATE GRADUALLY MAINLY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY, THE WEAKNESS IS REMOVED AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
BEND THE TRACK TEMPORARILY WESTWARDS.
TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A NEW POLEWARDS TURN IS EXPECTED. D
URING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FUNDI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.
FUNDI BRINGS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. THIS HE
AVY RAINFALLS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UP TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT SPREADS SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TULE
AR / CAP SAINTE-MARIE AREA.
NNNN