WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

eyewall nearly complete

[euro6208]

WOAH

TPPN10 PGTW 100030 COR

A. TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS)

B. 09/2332Z

C. 13.78N

D. 154.60E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. AFTER WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING
FAIRLY QUICKLY. BLK PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED FIX CODE
DESCRIPTION IN REMARKS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1835Z 13.12N 155.20E MMHS
09/1955Z 13.18N 155.03E SSMS
09/2017Z 13.18N 155.02E WIND
09/2025Z 13.17N 155.05E SSMS


UEHARA

[euro6208]

Raw T up to 6.4.

[euro6208]

Cloud tops continue to cool and eye continues to warm. It is 6.0 worthy. A solid spiral band has just developed. It is small but quite intense. Rapid intensification is ongoing but dry air to it's west should prevent higher strengthening.

[euro6208]

Goodness gracious. RAW T is 7.3!

Dark grey convection trying to close off around its pinhole 7 nm eye

[mrbagyo]

nice looking midget typhoon. GFS nailed it

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150210 0600 14.2N 154.2E WPAC 105 944

Very impressive category 3 105 knots typhoon in February!

[euro6208]

Higos is the strongest February typhoon since Typhoon Nancy in 1970 which peaked at 120 knots Category 4. Category 5 Mitag in 2002 also was a February storm but peaked in March.

Can it become the strongest February typhoon?

[euro6208]

Looking like a category 4 soon

TPPN10 PGTW 100620

A. TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS)

B. 10/0532Z

C. 14.19N

D. 154.19E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT WERE
6.0. DBO PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND A RECENTLY
DEVELOPED 10NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105
KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE OF SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES HAVE RISEN. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
B. TY HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A BREAK IN THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AFTER CRESTING THE
RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS, TY 02W COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY. AFTER WHICH, DECREASING
OCEAN HEAT PARAMETERS, INCREASING VWS, AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE A STRONG WEAKENING PROCESS AS DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THEY DO DEPICT SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE
RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT VARIATION, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Thanks to Higos, the 2015 WPAC season is off to an incredible start, 459% of normal year to date...

[euro6208]

TY 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 10 February 2015

<Analyses at 10/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E154°05'(154.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E153°00'(153.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E152°50'(152.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°25'(22.4°)
E156°30'(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades.

STS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 21:50 UTC, 10 February 2015
<Analyses at 10/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°00'(16.0°)
E154°55'(154.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E155°20'(155.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E155°35'(155.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 102129
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
800 AM CHST WED FEB 11 2015

...HIGOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 154.3E

ABOUT 610 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 680 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HIGOS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3 EAST. HIGOS WAS MOVING
NORTH AT 12 MPH. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS
TYPHOON HIGOS WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 MPH. HIGOS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO

[dexterlabio]

I must say...GFS nailed this one..the track and especially the intensity... I for once downplayed the major system in February scenario of GFS, but then it did happen.


I'm quite surprised though JTWC didn't raise the strength to at least 115 knots. It resembled more of a Cat4 while at its peak.

[euro6208]

Higos sounds to be our next monster!!

Could happen since all models sayin no development until the first week of february and that would allow the ocean to get even warmer...

February and March... the end of the NE Monsoon and the start of the EASTERLIES. Not good for TC development.

Never say never when it comes to the wpac. This area is the craziest of all basins anything can happen...

Never say never when it comes to the wpac. This area is the craziest of all basins anything can happen...

As Clark said, conditions are not conducive. It doesn't matter if "never say never" comes to place in the WPAC, the craziest of all basins.... I was just giving a guess, that's all. That was my point in the post...

I had to requote this...

[euro6208]

Second strongest typhoon within February and only the 3rd major typhoon in February since records began...

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150211 0000 15.8N 153.6E WPAC 75 967

[euro6208]

Relocated.

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW TY 02W IS WEAKENING, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE NORTH EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
101800Z BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH DATA SHOWING THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, SOMETHING PREVIOUSLY
NOT SEEN IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED LOOP. A 102337Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORIENTED ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS ASSESSED USING THE
ABOVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN FIX
LOCATIONS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS COMBATING
THE 25-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. TY 02W IS TRACKING TO
THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECURVE AROUND THE STR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE CURRENTLY EXPOSED
LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK IN UNDER THE CONVECTION AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE. AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE LLCC MAY
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED TO THE NORTH EAST, AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. REGARDLESS, WITH THE DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND INCREASE IN VWS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED RAPID DECAY OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 24 WITH
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE
LLCC AND WITH RESPECT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN