SPAC: LAM - Tropical Cyclone

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
145.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. RADAR
ANIMATION FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC IS VERY
DISORGANIZED AND HARD TO DISCERN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. BASED ON THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Well it looks to finally be getting its act together...

GFS brings this westward toward Darwin and the northwestern coast of Australia while ECMWF moves it eastward towards Queensland...

[euro6208]

[jaguarjace]

95P INVEST 150216 0000 12.4S 140.0E SHEM 20 1007

[RL3AO]

Probably the most interesting area of the four invests. Not looking the greatest at the moment though.

[jaguarjace]

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 11:12 am CST on Monday 16 February 2015
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 18 February 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1003 hPa, has formed in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria near 11.5S, 140.5E,
about 200km northwest of Weipa. The low is expected to be slow moving during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.
Wednesday: Moderate.

Significant uncertainty remains in the likely track and development of the Tropical Low.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 2:32 pm CST Monday 16 February 2015.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 4:54 pm CST Monday 16 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South, 140.1 degrees East , 265 kilometres northwest of Weipa and 385 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: northwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

95P INVEST 150216 0600 10.8S 139.8E SHEM 30 1000

[euro6208]

Ramping up quickly...Equivalent to a depression on the SSHS but JTWC doesn't start warnings until it reaches 35 knots, tropical storm...

WTPS21 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.7S 139.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S
142.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS STARTED TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME MORE DEFINED. A 160038Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS ALSO
REVEALED THE CONSOLIDATING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION WHILE BANDING HAS IMPROVED. A 160036Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED INCREASED WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170600Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[jaguarjace]

We have Lam.

Change title to 'SPAC: LAM - Tropical Cyclone'

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 5:05 am CST Tuesday 17 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 3:30 am CST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 139.8 degrees East , 335 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 450 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue moving in a general west or southwest direction and continue to strengthen.

12P LAM 150216 1800 11.3S 139.6E SHEM 35 996

[jaguarjace]

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160551FEB2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.3S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.3S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.3S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.4S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.4S 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0S 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 139.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
THE VWS IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE
TC 12P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR GOVE AIRPORT
BEFORE DRAGGING INTO THE AUSTRALIAN NORTHERN TERRITORY. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY LANDFALL. TC LAM WILL
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 72 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, ALL FAVOR A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THE VERY SLOW INITIAL
STORM MOTION AND THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A
(WTPS21 PGTW 160600).//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 11:21 am CST Tuesday 17 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 9:30 am CST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 139.4 degrees East , 290 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 415 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour .

12P LAM 150217 0000 11.6S 138.9E SHEM 45 989

[HurricaneBill]

What was the last Category 5 in the Gulf of Carpentaria? Kathy?

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Lam
Issued at 5:04 pm CST Tuesday 17 February 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Lam at 3:30 pm CST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.6 degrees South, 138.8 degrees East , 230 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 365 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west at 11 kilometres per hour .

12P LAM 150217 0600 11.4S 138.7E SHEM 55 982

[euro6208]

12P LAM 150217 0600 11.4S 138.7E SHEM 55 982

[euro6208]

Tracking westward should keep it over water much longer...

REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 138.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (LAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 170519Z SSMI IMAGE PROVIDES
EVIDENCE OF THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC LAM IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RE-ALIGN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC
12P TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 12P SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR TAU 48 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Eye becoming better defined on radar