SIO: GLENDA - Post-Tropical

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90S INVEST 150215 0600 6.2S 82.3E SHEM 15 1010

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1S 80.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO WRAP IN TOWARDS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151310Z
SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THIS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED
BANDING, MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD BROAD DIVERGENCE AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK, HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN INTENSITY
OR LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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90S INVEST 150216 0600 7.4S 79.2E SHEM 20 1007

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:04 pm WST on Monday 16 February 2015
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 19 February 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
Another low may enter the region near 10S 90E late on Wednesday. Conditions are
moderately favourable for development of this system during Thursday, before
becoming less favourable on Friday as it begins to move south westwards towards
90E again.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate

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90S INVEST 150219 0600 8.0S 90.7E SHEM 20 1007


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:49 pm WST on Thursday 19 February 2015
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 22 February 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 9S 93E. This system is expected to take a generally
southeastwards track before recurving to the southwest and moving out of the
forecast area on Saturday. Conditions are currently unfavourable for
development with strong winds blowing across the top of the low (high wind
shear). Models indicate that conditions will remain unfavourable until after
the system has moved west of 90E.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low



ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
81.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
VERY WEAK ORGANIZATION WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION. A 181229Z SSMIS
IMAGE REVELS VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40 TO 50
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
HAS SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE SYSTEM NOT ORGANIZING UNTIL
IT TRACKS BACK TO THE WEST BEYOND TAU 96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
NNNN

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In about 5 days time.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 84.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 79.1E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 220334Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
ELSEWHERE. A 220333Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEARTE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

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ZCZC 603
WTIO30 FMEE 221238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/10/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 10
2.A POSITION 2015/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 77.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/02/23 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/02/24 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/02/24 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/25 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/25 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/26 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/27 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
ASCAT DATA OF 0335Z SHOW A CIRCULATION YET ELONGATED, STRONGER WINDS
ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE TRADES FLOW, AND ARE FEEDING
THE DEEP CONVECTION ONLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
BENEFITE OF THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, WITH THE WEAKENING
OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE IMPROVING EQUATORIAL
DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOMORROW MORE WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS,
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKEN IN THE SOUTH.
UNTIL THURSDAY AND ON TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY,
LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A
BUILDING OUTFLOW CHANNEL EQUATORIAL. ON WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BE UNDER THE RIDGE, THEN THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MORE FRANK,
THE SYSTEM MAY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS, UNDER THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF A ARRIVING TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, AND A
BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
THEN UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND REACHING
SST OF LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL.
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
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WTXS21 PGTW 221400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 78.3E TO 15.8S 71.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
79.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 220841Z
NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 220333Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231400Z.//
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ZCZC 630
WTIO30 FMEE 230657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/10/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2015/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 74.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: SW: NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/23 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/02/24 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/02/24 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/25 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON EXPERIENCING AN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
WINDS HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO 0454Z ASCAT SWAT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS. SYSTEM IS THEREFORE SLOWING
DOWN AND TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THIS DIRECTION UP TO THURSDAY.
IT IS AFTER-THAT EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE
DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED AT THIS RANGE ON THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
ON THIS FORECAST PATH, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND TO KEEP ON
EXPERIENCING AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT , WEAKENING
HOWEVER.
IT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE.
FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND TAKING
BENEFIT OF A BUILDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY.
ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS AND
EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC NWP MODELS (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO,
NAVGEM, HWRF) PURPOSE A LEFT-HAND PARABOLIC TURN EAST OF 65E WITH
DANGEROUS WINDS AVOIDING RODRIGUES ISLAND.
SOME FEW MEMBRES OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS SYSTEMS EPS(ECMWF) AND
GEFS(NCEP) KEEPS ON THREATENING RODRIGUES ISLAND.
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=
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ZCZC 673
WTIO30 FMEE 240639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2015/02/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 71.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 460 SW: NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/24 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/25 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5-.
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED NEAR THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDS HAV
E BEGUN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN RELASTIONSHIP WITH THE DECREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE MINIMAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED THANKS TO THE BUOY NB 53523.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS. SYSTEM IS THEREFORE TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT I
S EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS BEARING UNTIL THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LE
VEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS RANGE TO THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE SOU
TH.
ON THIS FORESCAST TRACK, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME WEAK AND THE SYSTEME SHOULD TAKE BE
NEFIT OF A GOOD DIVERGENCE. THEREFORE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY.
ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN RELATIO
NSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS EFFECT BEING OFFSET BY A BOOSTED POLEWARD OUTFL
OW.
ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS AND EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERL
Y VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURE TR
OPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
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ZCZC 609
WTIO30 FMEE 241828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 70.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 300 SW: 190 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/25 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.0
GLENDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE AND 1709Z AMSU MICROWAVE
89GHZ AND 157GHZ CHANNELS SHOW A CURVED BAND WRAPPING OVER 7 TO 8
TENS.
MENTIONED CENTRE IS ESTIMATED THANKS TO 1402Z SSMIS AND 1709Z METOP
SWATHS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE
TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS
BEARING UNTIL THURSDAY LATE.
THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE
DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (5KT THANKS TO 12Z CIMSS ESTIMATION).
EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY GOOD AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD POLEWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
FROM FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING WESTWARD AND
NORTHWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IN THE SAME TIME , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY.
THEN, ON FRIDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MORE RAPIDLY
FROM SATURDAY EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=
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ZCZC 751
WTIO30 FMEE 250646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 68.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 460 SW: 480 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 190 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-
ASCAT-A DATA OF 0501Z WAS HELPFUL TO ASSESS STORM POSITION, INTENSITY AND WIND STRUCTURE. THE WIND
S STRUCTURE APPEAR FAIRLY BROAD ON THE ASCAT DATA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (READ AT 39 KT) RATHER
FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT LIES IN-BETWEEN THE ASCAT WINDS AND THE VARIOUS OBJECTIV
E AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. (SATCON AT 50 KT - 10 MIN WINDS)
SINCE LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARDS BUT SHOULD RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS A POL
EWARDS TRACK ACCORDING ALL NWP GUIDANCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LE
VEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNES
S TO THE SOUTH.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (
2 KT ACCORDING TO 00Z CIMSS ESTIMATION).
EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY GOOD AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD POLEW
ARD WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND STRUCTURE AND LACK OF INNER-CORE, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.
FROM FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE A
RRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IN THE SAME TIME , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY AND THE SY
STEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
FROM SATURDAY, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
MORE RAPIDLY.
INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PUREL
Y TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 715
WTIO30 FMEE 260657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :148 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 36.2 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/03 06 UTC: 41.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0
DESPITE GOOD UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS (FAVOURABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERY LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR),
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLAYS GREAT DIFFICULTY TO DEVELOP WITH EVEN SIGNS OF DISORGANIZATION AND WEAKE
NING.
IT SEEMS THAT DRY AIR IN MID-LAYER HAS WRAPPED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THEREBY I
SOLATING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFFECTING THE CONVERGENCE OF HUMIDITY THEREUPON INHIBITI
NG THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. (SCENARIO GUESSED BY NUMERICAL MODELS AND CONFIRMED BY TPW ANIMATION).
GLENDA HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
ON FRIDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST
AHEAD A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT U
NTIL FRIDAY MORNING. GLENDA SHOULD TAKE BENEFIT OF A VERY GOOD POLAR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS GO ON SUGGESTING UNFAVOURABLE MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE OF
THE CIRCULATION, AND SHOULD LIMITATED SIGNIFICANTLY THE EXPECTED IINTENSIFICATION.
ON FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WATERS, AND BEGIN TO
BE UNDER A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINTE .THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATURDAY AN
D BEYOND, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN M
ORE RAPIDLY.
INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE P
ROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOU
THERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.8S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.1S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.4S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.2S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 38.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 67.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THINNING CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE MARGINAL, FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36, TC GLENDA WILL
ROUND THE STR AND RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TC 14S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND
270900Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be weakening.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 638
WTIO30 FMEE 270640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 66.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 690 SW: 470 NW: 310
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 32.6 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 38.0 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/03 06 UTC: 44.6 S / 84.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/03/04 06 UTC: 55.1 S / 103.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
WINDS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO 0421Z ASCAT SWATH.
MSLP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THIS BROAD EXTENSION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE IS NOT REALLY CONSISTENT ANYMORE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATION.
THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED T
O CONTINUE.
GLENDA IS TURNING SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUE
NCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD OF A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATI
TUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE P
ROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOU
THERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BY THAT TIME BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATI
ON PROCESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED SUNDAY LATE.
MONDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAINT-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLAND
S. IN THIS CASE, THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS REACHING STRONG GALE FORCE (TE
MPORARILY STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE).
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 66.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 66.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.4S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.5S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.0S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.9S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 66.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION
AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 976
WTIO30 FMEE 281245 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20142015
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-GLENDA)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6 S / 68.1 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :185 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 570 SW: 460 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 330 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 130 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/01 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/03/01 12 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/02 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2015/03/02 12 UTC: 40.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2015/03/03 00 UTC: 43.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2015/03/03 12 UTC: 45.5 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. EX-GLENDA
HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PROCESS. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLED EXP
OSED CENTER AND A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
EX-GLENDA IS GOING TO TURN PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEA
D OF A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24H OWING TO THE BAROCLINIC INT
ERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIC ANOMALY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND THE WARM LOW LEVEL ANOM
ALY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY, THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP PASSING THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAINT
-PAUL AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE HIGHT SEAS WEATHER AD
VISORY ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE LA REUNION (FQIO20).
NNNN