SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

jaguarjace · #1 Postby **jaguarjace** » Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:45 pm

93P INVEST 150305 0000 7.0S 173.0E SHEM 15 1010

GFS 3 days time:

#2 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:07 am

0z GFs still running, up to 970mbar so far.

#3 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:27 am

18z GFS ensembles.

NOGAPS also brings this to 958mbar by Day 5.

euro6208 · #4 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:09 am

Startling 00Z run from GFS...870's cyclone... :double:

Although the core of this monster will pass between the main islands of Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia sparing them the highest winds, I can't imagine the height of the seas...Kraken anyone? :lol:

Iune · #5 Postby **Iune** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:30 am

Next name on the SPac list is Pam.

#6 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:54 am

0z GFS brought this to 877.
6z GFS brought this to 880.

euro6208 · #7 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:55 am

Looks like we have to be extremely wary of GFS this season :lol:

#8 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:57 am

0z Euro

#9 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:59 am

euro6208 wrote:Looks like we have to be extremely wary of GFS this season

Other models show it to. I think they ALL could be suffering from convection feedback though since they agree on a vbery strong MJO pulse. GFS shows the strongest, and is a bit on drugs.

Given the other model support, I would not rule it out. Also worth noting that the higher res on this new version of the GFS leads to lower pressures than the old version.

#10 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:54 pm

869mb on the last run

#11 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:00 pm

6z GFS brought it to 869. 12z brought it to 870.

euro6208 · #12 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:05 pm

Direct hit for New Caledonia...

Ptarmigan · #13 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:00 am

Whoa! The forecast models have 93P with central pressure as low as 869 millibars! That is the most intense on record! :double:

I have never seen any forecast model predict such low pressure.

euro6208 · #14 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:38 am

Latest run a slight weaker 882 mb and tracking east of Vanuatu now.

euro6208 · #15 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:50 am

Ptarmigan wrote:Whoa! The forecast models have 93P with central pressure as low as 869 millibars! That is the most intense on record! I have never seen any forecast model predict such low pressure.

What record?

Are we align to think that Super Typhoon Tip's 870 mb record in 1979 still stands?

Remember that since 1987, many typhoons stronger than Tip have surpassed in the absence of recon...Including Megi and Haiyan which peaked at 175 knots and for haiyan? maybe 185 knots?

Some people think that comparing atlantic hurricanes and pacific typhoons is modern...

jaguarjace · #16 Postby **jaguarjace** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:45 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 06/0912 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE[999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 07.1S
166.2E AT 060600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR MTSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.

SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

#17 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:33 am

Megi had recon and the pressure was nowhere near that of Tip

euro6208 · #18 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:47 am

Alyono wrote:Megi had recon and the pressure was nowhere near that of Tip

Wind wise, Megi had higher winds. Recon found 175 knots sustained which puts it in a league of typhoons of 200 mph sustained...

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #19 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:08 pm

The GFS's depiction of a sub-880 millibar tropical cyclone is very unlikely to materialize, and the GFS is likely having issues with intensity given large-scale upward motion. Still, there's a good chance we will be dealing with an exceptionally powerful system in the Southwest Pacific next week.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:16 pm

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061733Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A POINT
SOURCE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING BEYOND TAUS
48 TO 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

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