SIO: HALIBA - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

94S INVEST 150305 1200 15.5S 52.2E SHEM 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 518
WTIO24 FMEE 071245
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2015 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/03/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: DISTURBANCE 12 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 49.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP TO THE MASCARENES IS
LANDS WITHIN PERIPHERAL BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2015/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
20.6 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

94S INVEST 150307 1200 18.9S 49.4E SHEM 25 1004

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 462
WTIO30 FMEE 080622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12
2.A POSITION 2015/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 50.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/08 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/03/09 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/09 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/10 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/03/10 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/03/11 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/12 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
DEEP CONVECTION ALWAYS VERY FLUCTUATING, HAS REMAINED OVER THE CENTRE
SINCE A FEW HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL
HIGHS.
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTS AND OVER WARM
ENOUGH WATERS, SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER THE
WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE
TOMORROW AND SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. A TEMPORARY
RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UP TO THE NEXT NIGHT, SHOULD
GIVE A LITTLE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OF 24HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM
MAY REACH MODERATE STORM STAGE ON MONDAY.
UP TO TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO A NORTH-WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY, AND SO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCARENES ISLANDS WITH A HEAVY RAIN
EVENTS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.=
NNNN

94S INVEST 150308 0600 19.3S 50.6E SHEM 30 1000

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 640
WTIO30 FMEE 081328 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2015/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 51.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 40 SW: 70 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/09 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/03/09 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/03/10 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/03/10 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/03/11 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/12 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5.
DEEP CONVECTION ALWAYS VERY FLUCTUATING, REMAINS OVER THE CENTRE, OF THIS SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE.
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVIEWED THANKS TO ASCAT DATA OF 0615Z.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN A WEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL HIGHS.
AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTS AND OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS, SOME SLIGHT DE
VELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY.
THE IMPACT OF THE WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINTE (SAME DIRECTION THEN DEPLACEMENT OF THE S
YSTEM) SHOULD BE LIMITATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS, DUE TO THE INCREASING SPEED OF THE DEPLACEMEN
T, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH MODERATE STORM STAGE ON MONDAY.
THE STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT, AND THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE
RADPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE ONGOING AND EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR AND THE M
ASCARENES ISLANDS WITH A HEAVY RAIN EVENTS, INHABITANT OF THIS AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS O
F THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

94S INVEST 150308 1200 19.7S 51.6E SHEM 30 1000

[cycloneye]

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALIBA (12-20142015)
22:00 PM RET March 8 2015
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba (996 hPa) located at 20.3S 52.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
Extending up to 20 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 25 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 21.2S 54.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 22.1S 56.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 24.1S 59.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 23.8S 59.1E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The system has obviously continued to intensify during the last 6 hours given the microwave imagery (cf windsat of 1434z) and ASCAT-B data of 1757z. The center, now seen on the Colorado radar, has show a fairly well defined presentation until just after 1800z. Given all this elements, the National Weather Service of Madagascar has named the system "Haliba".

Haliba is a midget storm (small winds radii given by the ASCAT) with a center overcast by a small but very cold cloud cluster with an average diameter of 75 NM.

The system is expected to track east southeastwards within a west to westerly steering flow driven by the low to mid-level near equatorial highs.

As the system moves away from the coasts and over warm enough waters, some slight development should continue. The impact of the westerly to southwesterly constraint (same direction than the forward motion) should be off-set during the next two days, due to the increasing speed of the displacement. The strengthening northwesterly constraint, and the slowing down of the system, should cause the rapid weakening of the system on Wednesday before extratropicalization.

Given the ongoing and expected impact of this system over portions of the Mascarenes islands (mainly Réunion island tomorrow), inhabitant of this area should monitor the progress of this system.

[jaguarjace]

16S HALIBA 150308 1800 20.4S 52.6E SHEM 35 996

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HALIBA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 20.4S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.4S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.8S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.2S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HALIBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 081844Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS INCREASED FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 081754Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 30 TO 35 KNOTS
CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC HALIBA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TC
16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TC
16S TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Tracks seems fairly uneventful.

[Yellow Evan]

09/1730 UTC 22.2S 55.5E T2.5/3.0 HALIBA

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 617
WTIO30 FMEE 100626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/12/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (HALIBA)
2.A POSITION 2015/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8 S / 55.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE
DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/10 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/03/11 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2015/03/11 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2015/03/12 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2015/03/12 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2015/03/13 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THIS MORNING, THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW A CENTRE
FULLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
SYSTEM.
HALIBA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS NIGHT INFLUENCED BY THE
RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM NR11 WHICH HAS CROSSED
MADAGASCAR AND MOVES NOW OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.
NEXT NIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A TRANSITING
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.
ON THIS TRACK, HALIBA SHOULD MOVE CLOSER THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND
UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTEARLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
ON WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GO THROUGH A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.=
NNNN

16S HALIBA 150310 0600 23.7S 55.3E SHEM 30 1000