WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
FPMY70 PGUM 150754
NOWMY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

GUZ003-004-151100-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
545 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

.NOW...THROUGH 900 PM...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
THIS EVENING ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...ROADWAYS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. ALL RESIDENTS OF TINIAN AND
SAIPAN SHOULD SEEK SHELTER AND CERTAINLY AVOID AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING.

DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL CONTINUE FOR
TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS EVENING. THE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
START IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
WESTWARD AWAY FROM TINIAN AND SAIPAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

Sustained tropical force winds now occurring...

Sustained winds of 40 knots G 53 mph occurring in Saipan...Tinian 41 G 55 mph, 66 mph recorded about an hour earlier...Andersen Guam NW 38 G 54

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
140616Z SSMIS 37 GHZ WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN TINIAN, ROTA AND
SAIPAN. TS BAVI IS TRACKING AT 20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO OVERALL MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. DUE TO INCREASED VWS, WATER TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, AND UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, EXPECT TO SEE SOME WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR
THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 MAR 2015 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 14:18:01 N Lon : 145:59:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1001.1mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : -9.1C Cloud Region Temp : -37.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.8 degrees

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150832
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI APPROACHING ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 145.5E

ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING WEST AT 23 MPH. BAVI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. THIS MAKES THE CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO GUAM THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER ADVANCES TO A
POINT NEAR ROTA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 60 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 AM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Pressure at Rota is 999mb and northeast winds of 21 mph...

Winds have decreased significantly over here...still drizzling...

Well i think that was it...Not a major problem...It was out of here in no time due to it's fast forward speed...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 151236
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
1100 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI WEST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE
OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 144.6E

ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHWEST...235 DEGREES AT 24 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.6 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 24 MPH. BAVI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM MONDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[wxman57]

Bavi looks terrible on satellite. Hard to identify a circulation. Looks like a sheared mess.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 152139
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
800 AM CHST MON MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI STARTING TO WEAKEN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 141.9E

ABOUT 280 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 190 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.9 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 22 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND 85 MILES ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 2 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 152115 AAA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
715 AM CHST MON MAR 16 2015

UPDATED TO ADD VALID TIME EVENT CODE

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS WEAKENING...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NONE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.6N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.6E DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
180 MILES WEST OF ROTA
145 MILES WEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 45 MPH. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST AT 22 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1
PENDING ANY CHANGES FROM THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUAM AND THE CNMI.
TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ENDED...BUT HIGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAIN. REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
AS IT PERTAINS TO THIS EVENT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARDS UPON THE AREA.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-152215-
/O.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
715 AM CHST MON MAR 16 2015

...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY. COMBINED
SEAS OF 13 TO 15 FEET TODAY SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
TONIGHT...AND AROUND 9 FEET ON TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR COASTAL INUNDATION IS EXPECTED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY...BUT LESS THAN AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Oh what lovely weather today. Breezy, windy, and rainy as the tail end of Bavi moves through...

[euro6208]

Can someone tell stubborn Bavi to just give up? It's still going strong but models have this dissipating in the Philippine sea...which is something we don't usually see as we all know the Philippine sea likes to spin up Cat 5's...

[euro6208]

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 16 March 2015

<Analyses at 16/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E139°30'(139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW440km(240NM)
SE220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E137°10'(137.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)


WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON MSI IMAGERY AND A 160500Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A
160328Z RSCAT PASS. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 IN NORTHERN QUEENSLAND. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

It aint gonna die man... as JTWC says it will dissipate over Northern Queensland!

C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 IN NORTHERN QUEENSLAND. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[euro6208]

It aint gonna die man... as JTWC says it will dissipate over Northern Queensland!

C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 IN NORTHERN QUEENSLAND. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//

When will it recurve to the southern hemisphere?

[ManilaTC]

Perhaps it will get a direct flight to Brisbane once Bavi gets to Manila.

[euro6208]

Again, if this were the summer months with no shear and dry air, we would be seeing reds and pinks not blue...We were really lucky...Thankfully it is still early in the season...

[ManilaTC]

Heavy convective blowup over the last few hours and shear seems to be relaxing... the convection is moving over the center...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER ASCAT
DATA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED IN
THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

It's a convection-free expanding swirl of low clouds now...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If Bavi was located over a more favorable environment... It would have looked like this