WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Poor Bavi struggling with shear now look at this, there is dry air located nearby...This maybe might weaken it somemore...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140940
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
745 PM CHST SAT MAR 14 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 152.2E

ABOUT 380 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 465 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BAVI WILL TURN WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. THE CENTER OF BAVI IS FORECAST
TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO ROTA SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED BACK TO 60 MPH. SATELLITE-
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 160
MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2015 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 13:03:18 N Lon : 152:01:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.6mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 2.9

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 61km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees

[euro6208]

We welcome the rains hopefully not much flooding and winds shouldn't be a major problem...

[euro6208]

Right in the Rota Channel...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 141254 CCA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1030 PM CHST SAT MAR 14 2015

CORRECTED TO ADD COR 2 INFORMATION

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
AS OF 745 PM THIS EVENING...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AS OF 800 PM THIS EVENING...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN HAVE BEEN PLACED
UNDER CONDITION OF READINESS 2.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS OF 745 PM THIS EVENING.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 500
MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. BAVI IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS TROPICAL STORM BAVI APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF WILL ALSO RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND BUILD FURTHER TO DANGEROUS LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON GUAM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
NOW IT IS TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION
OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. HEAD FOR STRONGER SHELTER IF DIRECTED TO DO SO
BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR
FLOODING. OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MID SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE ONSET OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BEGIN
WHICH CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.

FOR BOATERS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR GUAM AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
CONTINUE WITH YOU PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
REVIEW YOUR TYPHOON/TROPICAL STORM DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO ACT
IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT
AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. CONTINUE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL STORMS AND TYPHOONS. CLOSELY MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN EAST WINDS AT 55 TO 65 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 80 MPH BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH AND HIGHER ARE STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING IF BAVI BECOME
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.

COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET SUNDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN
11 AND 14 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL RISE FURTHER TO
BETWEEN 13 TO 17 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY MORNING AS BAVI MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL AND OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL TUESDAY
AT THE EARLIEST.

FOR GUAM AND ADJACENT WATERS...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN WEST WINDS AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH AND HIGHER ARE STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING IF BAVI BECOME STRONGER AND
TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM.

COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET SUNDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN
11 AND 14 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL RISE FURTHER TO
BETWEEN 12 TO 15 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY MORNING AS BAVI MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL AND OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL TUESDAY
AT THE EARLIEST.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
SUNDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY RISE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14 FEET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS AT 15 TO 18 FEET
ALONG ALL REEFS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDES.

FOR GUAM AND ADJACENT WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF 10 TO 12 FEET
SUNDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY RISE TO BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURF WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS AT 13 TO 15 FEET
ALONG ALL FACING FACING REEFS SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST...
NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
FOR GUAM THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS BAVI MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AROUND 300 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

JMA track now dead center through Guam...

Just recorded a wind gust of 40 mph just now...Pressure should start falling as Bavi nears...

Third straight hour of gale force winds...

[euro6208]

Back down to southern Guam...

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
NORTH OF
CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CONCEALED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 140943Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND IMPLIES A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (VWS) WHEN COMPARING THE 91
AND 37GHZ IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AGREEMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VWS
IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS BAVI IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MODELS HAVE INCREASED
THE STRENGTH AND DECREASED THE LATITUDE OF THE STR, FORCING THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE FLAT AND WESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS BAVI WILL ONLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WHILE MODELS ARE IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
THE JTWC INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE INTENSITY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR
THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS VWS INCREASES, TS 03W WILL
WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE BUILDING RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST,
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Although it is forecast to pass over Guam, the most intense convection and winds are located further north due to moderate wind shear. We are in the weaker south side and right now barely any rain and winds is much weaker than yesterday.

The islands to the north experiencing worsening conditions in Saipan they just recorded a wind gust of 40 mph...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:32:50 N Lon : 148:58:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1004.9mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.2

Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -41.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.5 degrees

[euro6208]

Gusting close to 50 mph in Rota and Saipan with pressures of 1008mb and 1007mb...

This is coming our way...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150123
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
1100 AM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 148.7E

ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. BAVI IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST
TODAY ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE CENTER NEAR GUAM LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
200 MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 20 MILES
ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 2 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150247
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 0100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 147.7E

ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 0100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.7
EAST. BAVI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. BAVI IS FORECAST TO
TURN WEST TODAY ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE CENTER NEAR GUAM LATE
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
200 MILES NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

000
WGMY80 PGUM 150403
FLSMY

- PGUM 000000
FLSGUM

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
149 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

GUC110-120-150945-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0001.150315T0403Z-150315T0945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TINIAN GU-SAIPAN GU-
149 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN...

* UNTIL 745 PM CHST

* AT 149 PM CHST...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HEAVY RAIN FROM
TROPICAL STORM BAVI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THIS AREA
WILL MOVE OVER THESE LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CAUSE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

* 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS...STREETS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS SUCH AS AREAS BELOW LAKE SUSUPE IN SAIPAN.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1516 14580 1516 14574 1511 14576 1503 14566
1495 14567 1492 14563 1494 14561 1484 14554
1496 14562 1501 14558 1506 14560 1510 14570
1521 14572 1529 14581

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 150523
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
323 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
AS OF 3 PM CHST...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUAM HAS DECLARED GUAM IN
CONDITION OF READINESS 1. ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN CONTINUE IN
CONDITION OF READINESS 1.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9N...LONGITUDE 147.7E...OR ABOUT 155
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF
GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS TROPICAL STORM BAVI MOVES ACROSS THE MARIANAS...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 FEET OR MORE WILL PERSIST UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR
IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-151200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
323 PM CHST SUN MAR 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

FOR GUAM AND ROTA

...WINDS AND SEAS...
DAMAGING WINDS NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY MORNING.

COMBINED SEAS OF 13 AND 15 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 TO 17 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING AS BAVI MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL AND OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL
TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF 14 AND 16 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FLASH FLOODING.

&&

FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN

...WINDS AND SEAS...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 MPH
WITH GUST TO 70 THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS DECREASING TO
40 TO 50 MPH WITH A FURTHER DECREASE AND MONDAY MORNING.

COMBINED SEAS OF BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 16 AND 18 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING AS BAVI MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. POSTPONE INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AND OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY
UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF 15 AND 18 FEET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF
2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLOODING.

$$

ZIOBRO/GUARD

[euro6208]

Latest 3 hour position update...It's tracking more west northwest...

[euro6208]

Latest obs from Saipan north winds of 32 G 54 mph and 999mb

Tinian northeast winds of N 37 G 55 mph and 1002 mb

Andersen Guam north winds of 26 G 43 mph 1003 mb

AB Won Pat Guam north winds 25 G 37 1004 mb

Rota north winds 20 1003 mb

[euro6208]

Looks like convection is weakening overall although there is a big convective blowup right over Saipan and Tinian...

[euro6208]

Highest gust by far near typhoon strength 72 mph in Saipan about an hour ago but has decreased now in the 50's...Tinian had a gust of 66 mph within the hour...Rota northwest of 32 mph...For us, winds are holding steady in the 40's...

This was taken around 15Mar00Z (10AM CHST) of ASCAT Scatterometer over TS Bavi which shows what the wind distribution...Not surprising they are getting much stronger winds up north...

[euro6208]

997 mb reading...