WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 130951 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
800 PM CHST FRI MAR 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI PASSING NORTH OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 73 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 159.4E

ABOUT 185 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1005 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 1015 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4 EAST. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL STORM
BAVI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 130816
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST FRI MAR 13 2013

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI CONTINUING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK IN
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR...GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT
WINDS OF 73 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ENEWETAK IN
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 160.3E

ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 215 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
AND ABOUT 1095 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
MOVEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL STORM
BAVI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TYPHOON/TROPICAL STORM DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO
ACT IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST
FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-170500-
/O.NEW.PGUM.TY.A.0001.150313T0718Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
600 PM CHST FRI MAR 13 2013

...TYPHOON WATCH NOW IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR GUAM AND ROTA...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

CHOPPY SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 16
AND 19 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS WILL BUILD FROM BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET THIS
EVENING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET ON SATURDAY. SURF COULD BECOME
DANGEROUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL
BUILD FROM BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14
FEET ON SATURDAY. SURF WILL BECOME DANGEROUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG EAST FACING COASTS...ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND 2
TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON GUAM AND ROTA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

Models except GFS indicates Bavi will slowly weaken on approach...Track is dead center for Guam...If that's the case, then most likely we will just get beneficial rains for the sun baked marianas...

Shear is literally preventing this from intensifying...30 knots...due to it's location southwest of an anticyclone with it's LLC on the eastern side of the convection but despite that it is maintaining it's shape and is more organized than it's ever been...

SST's is conducive for some slight strengthening but falls off closer to the marianas...Category 4 Higos just passed through this area last month so it's a saving grace...

Of course it's only March...If this occurred during the summer months and with el nino booming, the islands would be dealing with a monster category 5...




Of course it's still early and anything can happen...

[euro6208]

03W BAVI 150313 1200 9.7N 158.8E WPAC 50 985

Up to 50 knots!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC doesn't show weakening for Bavi at all, just retaining its intensity

IMO it could be stronger

[euro6208]

Warning #9 for the first time showing a blown typhoon...

Map hasn't updated...

[euro6208]

JMA only forecasting a peak of 50 knots 10 min and is slightly more south...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 131139 CCA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST FRI MAR 13 2013

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE COR3 INFORMATION

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI PASSING NORTH OF POHNPEI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
AS OF 500 PM CHST...GOVERNOR CALVO AND REAR ADMIRAL BOLIVAR DECLARED
GUAM UNDER THE CONDITION OF READINESS 3.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE ISLANDS OF GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT
WINDS OF 73 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 159.4E

ABOUT 185 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 1005 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 1015 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4 EAST. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. BAVI IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL STORM
BAVI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR TYPHOON/TROPICAL STORM DISASTER PLAN AND BE READY TO
ACT IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS.
MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND
LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR GUAM AND ROTA...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST 40 TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY.

FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY.

CHOPPY SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 16
AND 19 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AND
OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL TUESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET ON
SATURDAY. SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 14
FEET ON SATURDAY. SURF WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS ON BOTH REEFS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS
POSSIBLE ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND 2
TO 4 INCHES ON GUAM AND ROTA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

CHAN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Because when the JMA last analysed the storm, the LLC was partially exposed. They may have to change their forecast after doing another analysis before releasing their next warning..

[euro6208]

Despite high shear, it is intensifying with a huge burst of convection northwest of the estimated center...It even has that look of an upside down comma with an *eye*...

[euro6208]

Here is my favorite NWS meteorologist Chip Guard talking about Bavi's impact for the Marianas...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PnVZeMxKU[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bli5hJAIB5s&t=76[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Here it is...

[euro6208]

Interesting...

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 851 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED EVEN AS IT
REMAINED SLIGHTLY SHEARED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131022Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH BROKEN CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES TO
REFLECT THE DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION REDUCING THE
OVERALL NEGATIVE IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
TS 03W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION TO SUSTAIN THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS BAVI ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS NAVI IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA EVEN AS STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A
NEW STR LEAF BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VWS WILL FAVOR A MORE
MODEST INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PHASE. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 131446
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
1245 AM CHST SAT MAR 14 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 73 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 158.0E

ABOUT 220 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 895 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 905 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 925 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WILL BE NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.0 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL STORM
BAVI IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE ISSUED
AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

Ouch...a strong TS/low end TY passing south of us, that'll put us in the right front quadrant, where the most devastating winds are at...Not to mention the increased pressure gradient to it's north? 3X

[euro6208]

It's expected to slow down just a little bit as it nears Guam bringing the closest point of approach just before 1 pm monday or 11 am sunday new york city time...

[euro6208]

Looks to have weakened a bit but still expected to see a borderline typhoon...

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 131737Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE DEFINED LLCC. A 131024Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND THE RECENT PGTW FIX WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
LLCC, HOWEVER, THE WESTWARD STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE OFFSETING THE
VWS SOMEWHAT. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWN IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS BAVI ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS,
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS BAVI IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA EVEN AS STEERING TRANSITIONS TO A
NEW STR LEAF BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASED VWS WILL FAVOR A
WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140305
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST SAT MAR 14 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 154.5E

ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 630 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 665 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.5 EAST. BAVI IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THE CENTER OF BAVI IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR GUAM LATE SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 160 MILES
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE.
BAVI IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
RESUME SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

Up to 50 knots...

03W BAVI 150314 0600 12.9N 152.7E WPAC 50 985

[euro6208]

It's getting more windier now...Winds are coming out from the north 24 mph gusting to 33 mph 1010.5 at Andersen while at the airport winds are also from the north at 22 mph gusting to 28 mph 1010.84...