WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Large area of 35 knots winds

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 120954
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
750 PM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI PASSING SOUTHWEST OF UJAE IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE AND ENEWETAK IN
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 165.3E

ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF UJAE
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AILINGLAPLAP
ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 410 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF POHNPEI AND
ABOUT 1440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.3 EAST. BAVI WAS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. BAVI WILL
APPROACH THE MARIANA ISLANDS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. SATELLITE-DEDUCED WINDS
INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE ISSUED
AT 1100 PM LATER THIS EVENING THEN FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

Eastern edge of that big burst of convection...

03W BAVI 150312 1200 8.4N 164.6E WPAC 35 996

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 121242
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1040 PM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

PMZ172-173-174-181-130600-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
1040 PM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI DRIFTING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) IS CENTERED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF UJAE AND 175 MILES WEST OF KWAJALEIN NEAR 8N165E. BAVI IS
FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS...HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
POHNPEI STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ARRIVE AT CHUUK STATE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF BOTH STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION IN THE
FORECAST TRACK OF BAVI COULD BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THEM.

IN POHNPEI STATE INCLUDING PINGELAP...MOKIL AND POHNPEI ISLAND...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

IN CHUUK STATE INCLUDING LOSAP...WENO ISLAND...FANANU AND ULUL...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN AT THESE INTENSITIES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SEAS ACROSS POHNPEI STATE WILL REMAIN AT 9 TO 12 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN DROP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET SATURDAY. SEAS ACROSS CHUUK
STATE WILL RISE THROUGH FRIDAY...REACH 9 TO 11 FEET BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND STAY AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL AND OTHER MARINE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE POSTPONED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM FOR HAZARDOUS SURF INFORMATION ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS...KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM BAVI. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION...AND LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

CHAN/SIMPSON

[euro6208]

One model has Bavi intensifying to a category 3...

[euro6208]

Interesting difference between JMA and JTWC...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121751Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE
STORM MOTION. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION,
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TS BAVI IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 TAKING TS 03W OVER GUAM. SEE
PARAGRAPH 3.B FOR DETAILS.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING STR. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED, ALLOWING TS BAVI TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK INDICATING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF REBUILDING AFOREMENTIONED STR.
C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND FORECAST
INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 122129
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
800 AM CHST FRI MAR 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI MOVING AWAY FROM UJAE IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR UJAE IN THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK IN THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF 0700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.7N 162.4E

ABOUT 215 WEST OF UJAE
ABOUT 370 MILES WEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 1240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 1210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 0700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 EAST. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST AT 16 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. BAVI WILL APPROACH THE
MARIANA ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. SATELLITE-DEDUCED
WINDS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 60 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE ISSUED
AT 1100 AM LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 PM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Bavi has a large area of near gale to gale force winds to the north because of pressure gradient...Even if it misses the marianas and passes south, we could have some serious damaging winds...

[euro6208]

The majority of the models have shifted south except EURO which continues to take it to Guam...GFS also south now a direct hit...

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 122112
TCSWNP

A. 03W (BAVI)

B. 12/2032Z

C. 8.7N

D. 162.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CENTER ON
EDGE OF OVERCAST. PT=3.0. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2018Z 8.7N 162.2E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 122252
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
850 AM CHST FRI MAR 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI SOUTH OF ENEWETAK IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON UJAE AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR UJAE IN THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK IN
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 162.4
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 215 MILES WEST OF UJAE
ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 370 MILES WEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 1210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS PASSING SOUTH OF ENEWETAK ATOLL AT THIS TIME.
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR BAVI THROUGH SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...UJAE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING. THEN WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AND
DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS
OF 11 TO 14 FEET THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 8 AND
10 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 12 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO FEET
OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ON BOTH NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORE
EXPOSURES THIS MORNING. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED THROUGH
TONIGHT. RESIDENTS ON UJAE SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ALSO...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...ENEWETAK...
EAST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SLOWLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE FURTHER TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET BY
LATE THIS EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 17 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DECREASE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 14 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING.
TWO TO THREE FEET OF INUNDATION IS LIKELY ON NORTHERN AND EASTERN
EXPOSURES UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS
DISCOURAGED THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
WATER. ALSO...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

..NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM
BAVI WILL BE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

Up to 45 knots!

03W BAVI 150313 0000 8.6N 161.0E WPAC 45 989

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 130013

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI)

B. 12/2332Z

C. 8.28N

D. 161.07E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/1920Z 8.62N 162.45E WIND
12/1921Z 8.35N 162.42E WIND
12/1952Z 9.30N 161.28E SSMS
12/2018Z 9.40N 161.18E SSMS
12/2104Z 8.82N 161.55E SSMS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

Ujelang reporting winds of 51 kph from the SSE with a pressure of 995mb...

[euro6208]

Now both JMA and JTWC has this passing south of us but barely...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TC) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH
OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SHEARED WESTWARD OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 122232Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM PGTW, KNES
AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE STORM MOTION. TS
BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING TS BAVI TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36
AND SHOWS A BIFURCATION AT TAU 48. NORTHERN GROUP INCLUDING GFS, GFS
ENSEMBLES, ECMWF, EGRR, AND HWRF INDICATES TC 03W TRACKS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF GUAM WHILE THE SOUTHERN GROUP INCLUDING NAVGEM AND JENS
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. JTWC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND FAVORS THE NORTHERN GROUP POSITIONING THE
FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF GUAM.
C. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND FORECAST
INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 130324
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK IN THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.7N 160.3E

ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 1080 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 1105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST. BAVI IS MOVING
WEST AT 20 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WHILE MAINTAINING CURRENT FORWARD SPEED. BAVI WILL APPROACH
THE MARIANA ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO 90 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
BAVI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE ISSUED AT
500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

Typhoon Watch issued!

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 73 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE CENTER. A
130405Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH BROKEN CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE
AND THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS IN-
PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION REDUCING THE OVERALL IMPACT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF TS 03W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TS BAVI TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS 03W IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48
WHEN IT WILL GAIN AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LEVEL STR. BEYOND TAU 48, THE INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
C. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS STEERING
TRANSITIONS TO A STR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST; HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A 175NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A TRACK PASSING JUST
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF GUAM. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN