SIO: NATHAN - Post-Tropical

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#21 Postby talkon » Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:19 am

18P NATHAN 150311 1200 13.8S 145.9E SHEM 45 989

Still 45 knots
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby euro6208 » Sun Mar 15, 2015 7:55 am

Looks like an intense cyclone making landfall near you spiral...are you going to chase this?
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:55 am

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan

Issued at 4:54 pm EST Wednesday 18 March 2015.

Image

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South, 149.0 degrees East , 405 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 405 kilometres east of Cooktown .
Movement: west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is now beginning to adopt more of a westwards track and should continue to intensify as it approaches the north Queensland coast.
At this stage, severe tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to cross the north Queensland coast between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during Friday morning.

18P NATHAN 150318 0600 14.9S 149.1E SHEM 65 974
Image
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#24 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:35 am

could it be as strong as Pam?
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:34 am

That looks like at least 115 knots now although convection has warmed some in latest...
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#26 Postby Alyono » Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:09 am

looks about 90 kts to me
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#27 Postby talkon » Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:47 am

18P NATHAN 150318 1200 14.8S 148.8E SHEM 75 967
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:05 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 14:47:03 S Lon : 148:40:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 998.5mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 4.2 4.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -13.3C Cloud Region Temp : -51.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
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#29 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:06 am

Reminds me of Tracy. Look at that tiny core!

Image
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#30 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:47 am

Nathan is indeed very small, a true midget cyclone.

Image

Image

Image

Nathan's convection does also seem somewhat warm, especially considering being located pretty deep in the tropics still, near 15*S. Coldest CDO tops are just barely crossing -70*C.
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#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:32 pm

WTPS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.6S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.5S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.3S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.1S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.0S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.8S 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NATHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER, DESPITE THE PINHOLE
EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. FURTHERMORE, THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT
DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE EXPANDING CENTRAL CORE,
INDICATING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. AN 181820Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE INCREASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE CORE AND MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY AGENCY
FIXES AS WELL AS THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ABOVE TC 18P
PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 28C WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC NATHAN IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, ALLOWING TC 18P TO FURTHER INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TC NATHAN
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS
ABOVE 30C IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WILL ALLOW TC NATHAN TO RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER CAPE ARNHEM AND WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:29 pm

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #43
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY THREE (17U)
11:06 AM EST March 19 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Three (972 hPa) located at 14.6S 147.6E or 245 kilometers east of Cape Flattery and 270 kilometers east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the north Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometers from the center of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas late this afternoon or tonight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometers from the center of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation late tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Tides may just exceed the highest tide of the year on the coast south of Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas on the high tide on Friday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation tonight, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan on Friday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning for abnormally high tides is current for the coast from Port Douglas to Innisfail.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 14.7S 146.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4) northwest of Cape Flattery
24 HRS 14.7S 144.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2) Overland Queensland
48 HRS 14.0S 140.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.7S 136.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
===========================
Severe tropical cyclone Nathan has continued to hold a steady intensity into this morning after a period of rapid intensification during Wednesday. The eye has become less evident on satellite imagery and the central dense overcast has become asymmetric over the last 6 to 12 hours. Vertical wind shear continues to remain low with the CIMMS wind shear product indicating only 5 to 10 knots of shear over the system and along the forecast track.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded center pattern with a MG surround and a banding feature, giving a DT of 4.5. MET and PAT were both 4.5. FT based on a 3-hour averaged DT. CI maintained at 4.5. Confidence in the location of the system is rated as good based on Willis Island radar.

Confidence in the forecast track in the short to medium term is high, with a clear steering influence and numerical weather prediction model tracks being reasonable well clustered. Given the very favorable environment, will continue to forecast further intensification at just over the standard rate for the remaining period until landfall. Taking into account the small size of the system and the very favorable environment, periods of more rapid intensification are possible. The recent slowing of intensification makes category 5 before landfall less likely, but it still cannot be ruled out.

In the longer term the remains of the system will emerge into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning and track rapidly west-northwest towards the eastern Top End of the Northern Territory. Numerical guidance generally intensify the system to tropical cyclone again quite rapidly, with some guidance reaching at least a category 3 system again in the Gulf. Although this is consistent with the current environment of very low shear across the Gulf, the intensity forecast is tempered by the possibility of an upper trough introducing some deep layer westerly shear to the system during this period. Will forecast the system peaking at 55 knots in the Gulf at this time.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for areas from Lockhart River to Port Douglas, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:52 pm

Lots of low PW air surrounding Nathan, which can be seen on the MW image below using the greens outside the storm circulation as a proxy. It's not hard to imagine with it lurking about on nearly all sides that some ended up getting ingested.

Image
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#34 Postby talkon » Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:57 am

Fun fact:
Nathan is in the box of 13S-15S, 144E-150E for 9 days and counting. (from 10 Mar 06Z)
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#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:09 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 14:43:35 S Lon : 145:58:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 971.2mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -37.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees
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#36 Postby talkon » Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:40 am

Winds at Cape Flattery is now 48kts sustained/66kts gusts

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4188.shtml

Judging by radar, the eyewall should be over Cape Flattery in like 30 mins or so.
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:33 am

Lizard Island is in the eye. The resort on that island is scheduled to be reopening on April 1st. Will be interesting to see how they weathered the cyclone.
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#38 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:57 am

Nathan is closing in on landfall and should be at the coast within a few hours. A weather station in Cape Flattery has documented 53kt sustained and 79kt gusts so far. Its location has been marked below as a red star.

Image
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby weatherwindow » Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:07 am

Good afternoon, has anyone seen an updated RMW?, the only figure I have seen is 15nm however that was associated with the 5nm pinhole eye...the post ERC diameter is 15nm which should affect the RMW...also what is the distance of Lizard Reef from the mainland?...Thanks, Rich and grtz from KW
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Re: SPAC: NATHAN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:17 am

weatherwindow wrote:Good afternoon, has anyone seen an updated RMW?, the only figure I have seen is 15nm however that was associated with the 5nm pinhole eye...the post ERC diameter is 15nm which should affect the RMW...also what is the distance of Lizard Reef from the mainland?...Thanks, Rich and grtz from KW


If I am reading it right, CIMSS' advanced dvorak technique lists 23 nautical mile RMW for Nathan, though I may be wrong.
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