WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

JMA downgrades into a TD

TD
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 5 April 2015
<Analyses at 05/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°00'(18.0°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON. DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED NATURE AND LACK OF OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY (35 KNOTS) AND POSITION IS HELD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS TS MAYSAK TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL LUZON, IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. UPON EMERGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA PRIOR TO TAU 12 AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THIS TIME. BEYOND
TAU 36, A NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE EVENT THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT
WILL AID IN THE DISSIPATION OF TS MAYSAK AND FORCE IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[talkon]

I don't know why JTWC still says it's a TS.

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.6N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.2N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 120.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAISHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

What a run for Maysak

04W MAYSAK 150405 1800 18.3N 119.1E WPAC 25 1004

[euro6208]

Final Warning

REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 118.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
WARMED AND SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
HAS UNRAVELED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES STILL
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING, BUT THERE IS NO DEFINED
SYSTEM CENTER SINCE TD 04W REEMERGED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND
POOR STRUCTURE ILLUSTRATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS IS MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

I believe that we had not seen this photo with a spectacular view very close from the International Space Station of supertyphoon Maysak on March 31 2015.

[euro6208]

Truly sad...

Not only is Maysak one of Micronesia's most expensive natural disasters in history but also the second deadliest storm in history...

Nine dead...

Deadliest you ask? Back in 2002 also an el nino year when Typhoon Chataan killed 54 people with 47 in chuuk alone in the island's deadliest storm...

[1900hurricane]

JMA revised Maysak's peak down a bit from 115 kt/905 mb to 105 kt/910 mb.