WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[ejeraldmc]

Sam Cristoforetti @AstroSamantha

Commands respect even from #space: we just flew over typhoon #Maysak.



SOURCE: https://twitter.com/astrosamantha

[ejeraldmc]

Sam Cristoforetti ‏@AstroSamantha

A closer look... #Maysak









SOURCE: https://twitter.com/astrosamantha

[Yellow Evan]

WOW!!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Houses blown away after Maysak hits FSM atolls

[1900hurricane]

Good example of eyewall concentricity.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Maysak is moving due west now and is still intensifying. Conditions will be worsening for Yap island. People in the path of this should pay close attention. The forecast may change slightly due to more west track.



Analysis for Super Typhoon Maysak: http://goo.gl/QP1cCZ


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

clear WNW motion. Likely means good news for the Philippines as it will encounter the strong shear sooner

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 312109
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 31/2032Z

C. 10.4N

D. 138.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON W RING WITH WMG EYE. PT=7.0. MET=7.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 20-NM AXIS-SYMMETRIC EYE THAT IS UNDERGOING
AN ANNULAR CYCLE: THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE RING. THIS IS
READILY APPARENT ON A 312213Z 91 GHZ SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM SUSTAINS ITS OWN
DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE ALOFT THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM, STY 04W
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT
150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS VWS INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. HOWEVER, WHEN THE CYCLONE MAKES
LANDFALL SHORTLY NEAR TAU 96 OVER NORTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES, NEAR
PALANAN, ISABELA, IT WILL BE AN INTENSE 90-KNOT TYPHOON. MAYSAK WILL
THEN EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEAKENED BY THE ROUGH TERRAIN BUT
STILL AT A STRONG TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Starting to gain even greater confidence that Maysak will really be torn up by shear around 15*N or so. Conditions are and will continue to be really rough up there. Wouldn't be totally surprised with an eventual complete decoupling like what happened with Higos.

[Yellow Evan]

20150401 0232 10.9 -137.2 T6.0/7.0 04W MAYSAK

[dexterlabio]

is this "annular cycle" as stated in the JTWC prognostic the other term for EWRC? Or are they just saying that it's becoming an annular system? Will be very reminiscent of STY Isa if that happens...

[dexterlabio]

Regarding the landfall intensity, I think that will be based on which part of PI it will hit. If it moves further north then I expect it to be around 30-40 knots. If it moves closer to Bicol and south Luzon it could still be a minimal typhoon or STS. I'm inclined not to believe that Maysak picking up annular characteristics will do any help... I've seen annular typhoons decaying quickly because of hostile environment...

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops quite warm, but eye intact. Outflow looks terrible though.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 010507
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST WED APR 1 2015

...SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK HEADING INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP AND ULITHI ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR ULITHI WAS CANCELED AT 1100 AM. DAMAGING
WINDS HAVE ENDED.

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR YAP ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 137.2E

ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 240 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 540 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK HAS PASSED ALL THE ISLANDS OF YAP STATE...AND
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ENDED.

...ULITHI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THE
REST OF THE DAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TODAY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND
DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET BY THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 13 FEET
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 FEET TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

...YAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED ACROSS YAP...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH
AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS 12 TO 15 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF OF
15 TO 18 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15 FEET THIS EVENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/STANKO

[dexterlabio]

down to 130 knots (JTWC).



edit: JMA down to 100 knots.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS 17-NM EYE THAT IS COOLING IN THE
DVORAK HURRICANE CURVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE CLASSIFICATION. THE
MICROWAVE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAKENING, AS
SEEN IN THE 010548Z SSMI IMAGE. AS SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM
PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, STY 04W WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BETWEEN TAU
24 AND 48, EXPECT A SLIGHT POLEWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
A SMALL BREAK IN THE STR. FINALLY, THERE WILL INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SYSTEM,
FURTHER DECREASING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY MAYSAK WILL TRACK INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE ALONG THE NORTHERN SPINE OF LUZON AS A
SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE IN OVERALL
INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL LUZON, EXPECT STY MAYSAK TO
RE-EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM.
DYNAMIC NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

I cannot see this having winds of more than 50 kts when it moves through the Philippines given the expected shear. EC and MU are in excellent agreement that this will rapidly weaken on approach. It's already showing signs of weakening now.

[dexterlabio]

JMA forecast might be closer to reality...showing 50-55 knots tropical storm before landfall in Luzon.. JTWC does this stuff.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Do not be too confident JUST YET. The amount and magnitude of weakening greatly depends on where it would landfall. Farther south the VWS is much lower and decreasing. Maybe if it hits Northern Luzon, it would be a weak TS at most. If it hits Central Luzon, maybe a strong TS. Lastly if it hits Bicol or Southern Luzon it may be a minimal TY. So still many changes this would encounter.