WPAC: HAISHEN - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 040730
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
520 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.9N 152.1E

ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF FANANU
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.1 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 8 MPH. HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND NORTH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HAISHEN VERY CLOSE TO FANANU AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF WENO ISLAND IN CHUUK LAGOON BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN. HOWEVER SOME ERRATIC MOVEMENT
OF 05W IS STILL POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE HAISHEN TURNS NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SOME CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND THE NOTCH FEATURES IN THE 040426Z N-19 AND 040329Z NPP
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO
REVEAL THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. TS 05W WILL BE ALLOWED TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST.
BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO VWS
INCREASING AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH THE
SYSTEM COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STEERING PATTERN BEYOND TAU 12, WHICH IS PORTRAYED AS EXTREME
VARIATIONS IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 040940
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
740 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN JUST NORTH OF FANANU...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.9N 151.9E

ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.9 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 8 MPH. HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN NORTHWESTWARD LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAISHEN WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WITHIN
30 MILES OF FANANU AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF WENO ISLAND IN CHUUK
LAGOON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAISHEN SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM BOTH LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER SOME ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF HAISHEN IS STILL POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN
COULD STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE HAISHEN
TURNS NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 041100
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN JUST NORTH OF FANANU...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FANANU ISLAND AND THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA IN CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.9N 151.9E

ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN IS CENTERED ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH OF FANANU
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH...BUT
MOTION MAY BECOME ERRATIC AT TIMES.

...FANANU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATER
ON SUNDAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WEST WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY LAST LONGER INTO SUNDAY IF HAISHEN
SLOWS DOWN OR MOVES ERRATICALLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AT 12 TO
14 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF ABOUT ONE
FOOT IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...CHUUK LAGOON AREA...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON BUT
ANY SOUTHWARD DEVIATION ON ITS TRACK COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA. REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL STORM EMERGENCY PLAN AND
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF CHUUK LAGOON SHOULD
NOT BE ATTEMPTED UNTIL MONDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO
12 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INSIDE THE LAGOON...CHOPPY WIND WAVES OF
3 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 300 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 041304
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
1100 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 151.7E

ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.7 EAST...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN
MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE HAISHEN
TURNS NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A 041109Z METOP-A
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SOME RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
RETREATING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 12. AT THIS TIME THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. TS 05W MAY BE ALLOWED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A STEADY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS WITH THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE WEAKNESS
OF THE SYSTEM, LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Haishen is getting a little stronger and is jogging a little to the NE now. Two global models, the CMC and NAVGEM, take this system more westward and keep it intact.

NAVGEM


Our analysis for Haishen and Maysak: http://goo.gl/6NAcHU

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[1900hurricane]

Shortwave IR shows an exposed center.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC FEATURE IN THE
041605Z NPP BT88 MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENED BY A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE TS 05W TO SLOW
DOWN TO NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 042135
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
800 AM CHST SUN APR 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WEAKENING NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 151.1E

ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.1 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 7 MPH. HAISHEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS

[jaguarjace]

05W HAISHEN 150405 0000 9.0N 151.2E WPAC 40 993

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAISHEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED LIMITED CONVECTIVE WRAPPING
INTO THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TS HAISHEN IS VERY COMPLEX. THE
STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PREVENT THE SYSTEM
FROM MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRY TO FORCE THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. FINALLY, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST FURTHER COMPLICATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH,
TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION, TRACKING A MAXIMUM OF 100 NM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, INCREASING VWS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
VARIATION IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Down to TD...

05W HAISHEN 150405 1800 9.1N 150.8E WPAC 30 1000

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 060852
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAISHEN (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
800 PM CHST MON APR 6 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAISHEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.0N 150.6E

ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAISHEN WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.6
EAST. HAISHEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. HAISHEN COULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAISHEN
IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON TUESDAY MORNING AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COMPLETELY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 05W IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TD HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMPLEX THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING
A QUASI STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. AS VWS INCREASES, EXPECT TD
05W TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
LEADING TO A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Nothing left of it now.