WPAC: HAISHEN - Post Tropical

[cycloneye]

99W INVEST 150329 1800 4.0N 174.0E WPAC 15 1010

[dexterlabio]

So this is what the models are showing to develop after Maysak, isn't it? Could be a threat to Guam and Marianas...

[euro6208]

Indeed haven't look at the models as am very busy here maybe someone can post them here?

[euro6208]

This will be a close call for us...GFS has consistently forecast a recurving TS/TY coming from the south and affecting the whole Marianas...

[cycloneye]

Looking better.Saved image.

[euro6208]

CMC takes this into Yap where Maysak is at...

NAVGEM and GFS safely recurves this east of the Marianas...

EURO has nothing...

[euro6208]

LOW chance!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.1N 164.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. A 310328Z AMSU-B
IMAGE SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNORGANIZED. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE TOUGHING IN THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BUFFER CELL.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS FAVOR THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IT BEYOND TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS:

SATELLITE SHOWS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
BROAD...ELONGATED CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. GFS AND NAVGEM
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AGGRESSIVELY AND BRING THE CIRCULATION
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TOWARDS POHNPEI ON THURSDAY. ECMWF IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE AND BRING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD REACHING SOUTH OF CHUUK
BY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE QUIET FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

[euro6208]

Still alot of uncertainty with Haishen as EURO and CMC doesn't show a recurve...

[cycloneye]

So models have backed off the bullish scenarios?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.1N
164.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. THE CONVECTION REMAINS VERY BROAD IN THE
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND ITS DISORGANIZED NATURE IS
FURTHER SHOWN IN THE 010317Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WANED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH ONLY SOME
DEVELOPMENT PAST TAU 96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Looking better.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6N
162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 160.7E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT HAS IMPROVED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. A 012021Z SSMIS 37GHZ PARTIAL PASS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 012220Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[1900hurricane]

2211 GPM shows plenty of low level convergence but still not much organization at the surface.

[talkon]

TCFA!



WTPN21 PGTW 020530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.6N 161.2E TO 8.8N 156.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020500Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N
160.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
020306Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB. A 012220Z
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED WITH
10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030530Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 020315
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 5.8N

D. 159.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...STRONG WIND BURST CAN BE SEEN MOVING NNE LEAVING THE LLC
TO THE WEST BUT NOT FULLY CONVINCED OF A CLOSED LLC ATTM OR MORE OF AN
ELONGATED SW-NE INTERFACE/SHEAR LINE. MI SUITE DOES NOT PROVIDE MUCH
SUPPORT EITHER WAY ATTM. STILL CONVECTION IS BROADLY BANDED AT LEAST .25
ON LOG10 TO WARRANT DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

TPPN11 PGTW 020628

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 02/0532Z

C. 6.08N

D. 160.43E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0225Z 5.40N 160.50E ATMS


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 020631
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
430 PM CHST THU APR 2 2015

PMZ172-173-174-030200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
430 PM CHST THU APR 2 2015

...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN POHNPEI STATE IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR 5N160E IS ABOUT 95
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PINGELAP...ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
POHNPEI AND ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KOSRAE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE DISTURBANCE WITH A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.

THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT CLOSE TO POHNPEI
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR MANY ISLANDS OF POHNPEI
STATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ON POHNPEI. SOME FLOODING COULD ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT ON
KOSRAE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE RANGE
OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.

AT THIS TIME ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 MPH. SHOWERS COULD BE NUMEROUS AT TIMES. ISLANDS
IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE THE
ISLANDS OF PINGELAP...MOKIL...POHNPEI AND PAKIN. SEAS COULD BUILD
AND GRADUALLY BECOME HAZARDOUS IN THE COMING DAYS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT CHUUK STATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED AND PEOPLE ACROSS ISLANDS OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD KEEP ADVISED ON FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

$$

GUARD/SIMPSON

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 020919
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 6.3N

D. 159.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MI SUITE DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR A CLOSED LLC BUT THERE IS A
WEAK HOOK NOTED JUST ESE OF POHNPEI... THIS MATCHES WITH WEAK TURNING OR
SHEAR LINE ROTATION SEEN IN SWIR AT ESTIMATED POSITION. CONVECTION HAS
WANED AND IS ABOUT .2 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0.
FT IS HELD AT 1.5 BASED ON CONSTRAINTS OF NOT LOWERING THE FT OVERNIGHT
IN THE FIRST 24HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

[euro6208]

NWS

MODELS
INDICATE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEMS IN EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE GFS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM
GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN WE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY BIAS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR EQ150E
THROUGH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED WEST OF KOSRAE NEAR
5N160E...THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD TO END AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR
3N180. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS NOW ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ON IT. THE GFS40
TAKES IT A BIT NORTHWESTWARD THEN RECURVES IT AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM. AFTER MOVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST A WAYS...THE MODEL OPENS
IT UP INTO A TROUGH AND STARTS ADVECTING IT WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. THE NAVGEM STARTS SIMILARLY BUT REALLY WINDS THIS ONE
UP INTO A TYPHOON. THEN...INSTEAD OF OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND
HEADING FOR THE MARIANAS...IT JUST STALLS OFF TO THE EAST AND
GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN. THE MOST SIMILAR ARE THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF-
HIRES. THESE KEEP IT SOUTH OF 10N AS A TD OR MINIMAL TS. THE LAST
BIT OF WEIRDNESS IS THAT THE ECMWF-HIRES OPENS IT UP INTO A TROUGH
THEN MORPHS THIS INTO A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MICRONESIAN AREA. IT SEEMS THE ONLY CONSISTENT THING IS THAT IT IS
EITHER WEEK OR HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE...A BIT OF GOOD
NEWS FOLLOWING THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY MAYSAK. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO POHNPEI...KOSRAE
AND MAJURO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY WORRY HERE IS IF
TOO MUCH COMES TOO QUICKLY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LAND SLIDES.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BRING IN MORE SHOWERS FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

[euro6208]

Not worth posting the model runs as all models except NAVGEM barely makes it a TD...Majority recurves this east of the Marianas and some dissipates it south of Guam...

Looks like Haishen might have to wait as Maysak took all of it's available energy...

[cycloneye]

Is now TD 05W but no threat to land.



WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM 022238Z AND 022245Z SHOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LLCC WITH 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TD 05W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING NER. IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL
REDUCE SPEED AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TAU 36 DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NER REORIENTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP LAYERED SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BETWEEN THE
RIDGES WILL PROVIDE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE NER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. AS TD
05W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INCREASES THE VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER VWS, LEADING
TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO THESE FACTORS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN