TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Solo
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 4 issued 0731 UTC Friday 10 April 2015.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 10/0802 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOLO CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 160.3E AT
100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE INNER MOST BAND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS DECREASED
IN AERIAL EXTEND IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SOLO LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND WITH A 0.6
WRAP, THUS YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 16.6S 160.4E MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.1S 161.0E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 162.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.7S 164.5E MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 101400 UTC.
