WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

100knts looks overcooked atm.

Nothing supports over 90. CI values are T5.5 yet the storm never got higher than a 5.0.

Edit: JTWC is at 5.5 but seems a bit high. I'd go 95 at most, maybe 90 due to lower ADT.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Moving more N of W than WNW. Close to west at 280° true

Bicol landfall?

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 666 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 071132Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. STRONG WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED TY 06W
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN SURROUNDING A PINHOLE
EYE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEED FOR THE TAU 96 TO TAU 120 PERIOD HAS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST
TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL ON THE ISLAND OF LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 48.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM WATER SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
WITH ONLY THE EASTERN-OUTLYING ECMWF SOLUTION TRACKING THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FROM NORTHEASTERN LUZON WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL.
BASED ON LOW MODEL FORECAST SPREAD AND INCREASING CERTAINTY IN THE
ANTICIPATED ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE, CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TY 06W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER CROSSING LUZON, ALTHOUGH
THE INTENSITY INCREASE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IMPACT THE SYSTEM. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. HOWEVER, NEARLY
ALL DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN. GIVEN HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[ejeraldmc]

It's getting uglier by the hour.

[cycloneye]

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 7 May 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°40'(11.7°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N29°00'(29.0°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM)

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning by JTWC at 100kts.

[cycloneye]

NOUL is not looking healthy right now. Let's see if this trend continues as PI needs rain but without strong winds.

[euro6208]

Latest warning has this passing just to the east of Isabela with eventual landfall in Cayagan...

[euro6208]

What is causing Noul's weakening?

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072048
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
700 AM CHST FRI MAY 8 2015

...TYPHOON NOUL CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 130.5E

ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 435 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NOUL WILL BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.5
DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...TAKING
NOUL TO LANDFALL ON NORTHERN LUZON SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 115 MPH. NOUL IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 130 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON NOUL.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

What is causing Noul's weakening?

Dry air.

[dexterlabio]

i don't know why JTWC still kept it at 100knots...unless they are expecting reintensification real quick...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND COMPACT FEEDER BANDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 072301Z 37 GHZ
F18 PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 06W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR ISABELA JUST AROUND TAU 48.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM WATER
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY NOUL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT BECOMES A COLD CORE
LOW BY END OF FORECAST. THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

Fix discrepancy as JMA is half degree lower in latitude compared to JTWC's.

[mrbagyo]

Convection is now blowing up unlike yestreday

[dexterlabio]

^i also notice there is another high steering west of Luzon...could be the reason why Noul slowed down and sort of blocking it...

It seems to me though that the high to the east will only steer it westwards if remains the dominant steering factor, however the upper level trough should be the one causing Noul to lift northwards. I'm not good at analyzing satellite pictures but the water vapor imagery hints that trough developing...will just be on time when Noul will track to track more NW..

[ManilaTC]

Looks like its coming back, hints of an eye starting to show on Visible imagery on Himawari.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

They will adjust their forecast back to Central Luzon.

06W NOUL 150508 0600 12.7N 129.1E WPAC 100 948

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Bending to the west

[euro6208]

big burst of convection southeast of the eye...