WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Repeat of Utor 13/Cimaron 06 happening now, but except that this will recurve NE-wards

For me the projected track is more like Typhoon Nida in 2004, also a May typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

The eye is more evident and defined now.

[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or is this re-intensifying?

[ohno]

EYE! The thing is not yet done!

[dexterlabio]

It is a small and compact system after all. Typhoons this size can surprise us at a very quick pace...not to mention the history of various typhoons doing RI east of Luzon...

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 090610

A. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL)

B. 09/0532Z

C. 14.97N

D. 125.21E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(NO ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT WERE
5.5. DBO PT AS EYE HAS REAPPEARED VERY RECENTLY (IN THE LAST
3HRS) AND REMAINS CLOUD-FILLED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0226Z 14.47N 125.78E GPMI


LONG

[dexterlabio]

back to 105 knots per JTWC...

[euro6208]

RAW skyrockets



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:15 N Lon : 124:57:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -3.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.0 degrees

[dexterlabio]

Rogue thunderstorms from the feeder band reached us. Heavy rainfall with wind gusts now affecting Manila.

[ohno]

Similar storm to this was Ruby 1988. Caused significant flooding over Luzon particularly the capital Manila

It simply defied logic this forecast track.

LOL spiral. Couldn't agree more. The guy or gal is a notorius wishcaster. The good thing I notice is that he tends to minimize his posts once CEBU is safe from coming storms.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A 12-NM EYE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 090118Z MHS
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
SURROUNDED BY TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND
STRENGTHENING THE TYPHOON. IN ADDITION, TY 06W IS TRACKING OVER VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TY NOUL IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS, UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN LUZON COASTLINE NEAR TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STR,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. AS TY 06W TRACKS POLEWARD AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST WILL ERODE
THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE AND BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BEYOND TAU
48, TY NOUL WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AND SST WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY, ENHANCING THE WEAKENING TREND. THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY
GFS AS AN EASTERN AND SLOWER OUTLIER. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Category 4 next warning?

TPPN10 PGTW 090907

A. TYPHOON 06W (NOUL)

B. 09/0832Z

C. 15.15N

D. 124.83E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
BLACK (+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0550Z 14.98N 125.15E SSMI
09/0746Z 14.80N 125.15E SSMS


LONG

TXPQ28 KNES 090912
TCSWNP

A. 06W (NOUL)

B. 09/0832Z

C. 15.1N

D. 124.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.5 BASED ON WH RING WITHOW EYE. PT=6.5. MET=6.5 FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE OF 1.0/06 HRS. CONSTRAINTS FOLLOWED
AS MANUAL AVERAGE OF PAST 6 HRS IS 5.9.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

WOW!

[euro6208]

Category 4!

06W NOUL 150509 1200 15.4N 124.5E WPAC 115 937

[ejeraldmc]

Behold the waters of the Philippine Sea!!

[cycloneye]

115kts.



WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING SYMMETRIC CORE STRUCTURE THAT HAS
MAINTAINED A SHARP WELL-DEFINED 13-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT IMAGERY IN THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
CIRCULATION, WEAKENING THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 091000Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A
SYMMETRIC EYE WALL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH, COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ABOVE 30 CELSIUS, IS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TY NOUL IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, TY NOUL WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN LUZON COASTLINE.
BEYOND TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
STEERING STR, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. AS TY 06W TRACKS
POLEWARD AND ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VWS AND DECREASING SST WILL ERODE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND BEGIN
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BEYOND TAU 48, TY NOUL WILL TRANSITION TO
A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). VWS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 40 KNOTS AND SST
WILL DROP OFF BELOW 26 CELSIUS, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY MODERATE SEPARATION
IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN
THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Noul is losing her spiral bands... but she still "peacocks" an impressive radial outflow

[Yellow Evan]

Continuing to see spiky outflow. I don't think this has peaked.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAY 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:44:55 N Lon : 124:16:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.5mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +8.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 131km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees

[znel52]

Wow looks like this thing is trying to make a run to Cat 5. Don't think it will but it should come close.