WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 080532Z PGTW
SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 080340Z AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH A PRONOUNCED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY AND A 12 NM EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND
UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIMEFRAME DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERIC MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERIC MODEL ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION BUT TRACK SPEEDS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONSIDERING MODEL SPREAD AND
GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW, THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Accelerating..

[euro6208]

CMC makes landfall over extreme northeastern Luzon, into batanes, misses taiwan and slams Okinawa



EURO misses luzon, passes east of Batanes, misses taiwan but agrees on Okinawa



GFS is the most southerly bringing it to central Luzon, rakes Batanes, passes east of Taiwan, and slightly misses Okinawa

[euro6208]

Up to 105 knots!

06W NOUL 150508 1200 13.3N 128.0E WPAC 105 944

[cycloneye]

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 8 May 2015
<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E121°25'(121.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°30'(22.5°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N29°05'(29.1°)
E131°25'(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45km/h(24kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N34°40'(34.7°)
E142°05'(142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 50km/h(27kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 081132Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX
AND A 081012Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A NEARLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN SURROUNDING A 14 NM
EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN LUZON AROUND TAU
36. THEREAFTER, TY 06W WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER
THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIMEFRAME DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERIC MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERIC MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION BUT TRACK SPEEDS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF VERY STRONG STEERING FLOW. GIVEN NOTED
MODEL SPREAD, EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE TYPHOON HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE. A 081728Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL
IN NORTHEASTERN LUZON AROUND TAU 36. THEREAFTER, TY NOUL WILL ROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL UNDER THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
TIMEFRAME DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION BUT TRACK SPEEDS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD,
EXTENDED RANGE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows if James Reynolds arrived in Luzon to chase NOUL?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyone knows if James Reynolds arrived in Luzon to chase NOUL?

He will have a flight to Manila then chase Noul in Isabela

[dexterlabio]

it's surprising no one else is throwing in the A word...it looks perfectly round though it still lacks a round eye to be called such...

[dexterlabio]

a very compact system

[dexterlabio]

^Agreed. It's a bummer though the typhoon does not seem to have a large cover of convection for all the farmers' benefit up north...instead it is getting more compact and stronger wind-wise...

[cycloneye]

Down to 95kts.

[dexterlabio]

Zipped away

[dexterlabio]

From PAGASA Virac radar

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Unlikely. It is accelerating WNW-ward which means landfall over Isabela or Aurora. Unevitable landfall now.... It may recurve after reaching Batanes. Your track is merely a possibility, a small possibility. It simply defies the logic of the steering conditions right now..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Repeat of Utor 13/Cimaron 06 happening now, but except that this will recurve NE-wards

[mrbagyo]

it's surprising no one else is throwing in the A word...it looks perfectly round though it still lacks a round eye to be called such...

Yeah , it's round.
It's just that it lacks that big hole in its center for it to appear like a trucktire.

Can you recall the appearance of cat 5 typhoon Elsie (1989) before landfall in isabela? That storm looks bloody "A"

[dexterlabio]

I think that projected track is a real possibility dexterlabio.

I thought it was just a satellite glitch and it's funny because it also got me many times before. Regarding your thoughts I am not undermining it but it is hard to go against the GFS and Euro solutions and given the other models consensus. I thought the digging trough has developed a little too late, and I also read somewhere in this forum that smaller cyclones respond slower to a ploughing trough up north... But if you were right all along you deserve the credit for that.

[dexterlabio]

it's surprising no one else is throwing in the A word...it looks perfectly round though it still lacks a round eye to be called such...

Yeah , it's round.
It's just that it lacks that big hole in its center for it to appear like a trucktire.

Can you recall the appearance of cat 5 typhoon Elsie (1989) before landfall in isabela? That storm looks bloody "A"

Yeah that's one interesting annular howler...and also a dreadful one...