WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 51//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190454Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY
DOLPHIN CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
CONCURRENTLY, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
