ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/05/10/an ... d-finally/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We'll try again in 2021.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA HAS
CLEARED THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...POSITIONED NEAR CLINTON NC AT
945 PM EDT. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF HEAVY RAINFALL BANDS WAS
SWEEPING ACROSS PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...HAVING SLOWED
DOWN THE FLOW OF TRAFFIC ON I-40 BRIEFLY. FOLLOWING THIS PASSAGE
AND THE MONITORING OF RADAR TRENDS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED LATER TONIGHT. 30-35 MPH SOUTH WINDS GUSTS
LINGERED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MID-EVE BUT DIMINISHING
SPEEDS WILL TREND LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SW AS
ANA PULLS NNE OF THE AREA. LIGHTER SHOWERS AND FRACTURED WEAK RAIN
BANDS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT BUT RAIN INTENSITY/RATES WILL SHARPLY
TAIL OFF INTO LATE EVENING. A FEW COASTAL SITES ACROSS SE NC AND
NE SC TALLIED UP 3.0-5.0 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
FROM ANA AND HER SLUGGISH FORWARD MOTION.

ANA IS THE ONLY NAME THAT HAS BEEN USED FOR 7 STORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC WITHOUT ANY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OTHER
BEING BERYL WITH 6 STORMS.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN WAKE OF ANA WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO SETTLE GENERALLY INTO A 66-70 DEGREE RANGE INTO EARLY MONDAY
AND MILDEST NEAR THE COAST IN LINGERING BREEZES. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER INLAND SC OWING TO WET GROUND...LIGHTER
WIND...AND PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

[beoumont]

The 5 am advisory for Ana has the lowest "sustained" winds (15 mph) for a tropical cyclone advisory I can recall ever seeing. I guess records are made to be broken.

Could be a typo at the source, I suppose: but the advisory as posted on the NHC site contained this line:

<<<MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...24 KM/H>>>

[tolakram]

That's not the final advisory by the NHC. I'm wondering why my bolded line below is missing from your advisory?

000
WTNT31 KWNH 110850
TCPAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL012015
500 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...ANA MOVING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 78.4W
ABOUT 28 MILES...45 KM...NW OF SEYMOUR-JOHNSON AFB NORTH CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[supercane]

1.

That's not the final advisory by the NHC.

Actually, the last NHC advisory on Ana was the 10 May 2015 21 UTC package. They explicity wrote, "This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ana. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
PM EDT under AWIPS header TCPAT1 AND WMO header WTNT31 KWNH." The last 3 advisories have been issued by the WPC, as you noted in the header.

2. The thread title is (not yet) correct, as Ana is still noted to be a Tropical Depression as of the latest WPC advisory from 15 UTC, although it will likely be declared post-tropical soon.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL012015
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...ANA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NC WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 13 MILES...25 KM...WSW OF EDENTON NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL
AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...25 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 11/1500Z 36.0N 76.8W
12HR VT 12/0000Z 37.9N 75.0W...POST-TROPICAL
24HR VT 12/1200Z 40.8N 70.1W...POST-TROPICAL
36HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

3.

This final advisory for Ana has the lowest "sustained" winds (15 mph) for a tropical cyclone advisory I can recall ever seeing.

The 15-mph sustained winds seen in the 09 UTC package may have been in error, as it is back up to 30 mph in the latest package.

4. Peak rain and wind reports from the Willmington, NC WFO available at http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=ILM

[Hammy]

Ana appears that it will be moving over water soon, will NHC re-initiate advisories or will HPC continue in that event?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ana appears that it will be moving over water soon, will NHC re-initiate advisories or will HPC continue in that event?

If the system were to re-acquire deep convection, the NHC would begin advisories again. The 'advisory stick' was passed on to the Weather Prediction Center due to the rainfall aspect of the system, which is their expertise.

[TheStormExpert]

Ana continues to exceed my expectations and is one cool looking storm...the type I would happily "wishcast" to my backyard. Hold on to your hats on the Johnnie Mercer pier tonight.

I would've taken Ana for the rainfall since here in eastern Palm Beach County their has been VERY LITTLE rainfall so far this month. IMO I'm expecting this month to end with Below Normal rainfall for most of the East Coast of FL, and Above Normal rainfall for most of the West Coast of FL due to stronger Western Atlantic Ridging we haven't seen in years for the month of May.

Wonder what this means for the rest of the season? I always heard that if you receive below normal rainfall in the month of May along the East Coast of FL that there is a better than average chance of Tropical Trouble later in the season.