ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Definitely deepening. Pressure down to 998 mb. Center under deep convection. Could Ana surprise and become a CAT 1 hurricane?

Can't rule it out now, can we? It has time, and we can't be sure (within 1 or 2 degrees Celsius) of just how warm that water is beneath it.

Not to mention it may be close already. The VDM listed maximum surface winds of 62kt. Whether NHC uses that value or not remains to be seen.

The name Ana has been used 7 times (including this year's instance) in the past within the Atlantic basin. None of them have ever reached hurricane intensity. Will we break that streak? We'll find out tomorrow!

[OuterBanker]

Local weather stations couple days ago said it was of no concern. My concern now is that it stays out long enough to strengthen before it makes its way to the coast. Also, the longer it waits the more east it will track. It also could wait until the front shows up which means that it would parellel the coast and never make landfall. I think tht would be the worse scenario.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the wind data, I would go with 55 kt for the intensity. The SFMR seems a bit too high.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

At my home tonight in Southport, NC, it is 70 and breezy with a starlit sky. Just a few wispy clouds passing through.

[WPBWeather]

She surprised many and is now (almost) a TS.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Ana is slowly moving near the NC/SC as she is stregthening quite nicely. With the warm waters in its favor and its slow movement, it can be a possiblity that Ana may become a Category 1 Hurricane but that all depends on the rate of stregthening. Regardless, tropical storm conditions will be felt across North Carolina and South Carolina. We will see..



Synopsis on Ana and other storms: http://goo.gl/pbwBXS


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

You would think greater intensification now would translate to a faster rate of degradation once the storm departs the hospitable gulf stream waters. the shelf waters aren't fit to fall in yet...nevertheless a very cool system underway in early May.

[northjaxpro]

Ana has impressed indeed and the storm has a window of opportunity for today to attain Cat 1 hurricane status. It is close to being one now. I think another convective burst near the center while over the Gulf Stream will probably get Ana to hurricane status briefly during the next 24 hours. Also, I agree with Outerbanker earlier in that Ana may meander offshore long enough in which it is possible it may not make landfall along the NC coast. The storm will get close, but it is just barely drifting north, with a slight northwest bend. Ana may stay off the coast long enough to have the trough catch up to Ana and finally grab it and accelerate it parallel to the coast and keep Ana out to sea by Monday.

[vbhoutex]

Definitely deepening. Pressure down to 998 mb. Center under deep convection. Could Ana surprise and become a CAT 1 hurricane?

Can't rule it out now, can we? It has time, and we can't be sure (within 1 or 2 degrees Celsius) of just how warm that water is beneath it.

Will upwelling come into effect woth Ana? The waters closer to shore are not warm enough imo to help sustain or intensify her even though she is close now.

[NDG]

Definitely deepening. Pressure down to 998 mb. Center under deep convection. Could Ana surprise and become a CAT 1 hurricane?

Can't rule it out now, can we? It has time, and we can't be sure (within 1 or 2 degrees Celsius) of just how warm that water is beneath it.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sat%20rgb%202015-05-09%200045_zpscwymh7dz.gif

Will upwelling come into effect woth Ana? The waters closer to shore are not warm enough imo to help sustain or intensify her even though she is close now.

Ana is right over the heart of the gulf stream and at this current strength upwelling does not come to play that much. As I mentioned before the immediate shallow coastal waters were well below 70 degrees before the storm move into the picture so as soon as Ana tracks away from the gulf stream she will start weakening.

[TheStormExpert]

Not looking too good this morning with convection not nearly as organized around Ana.

I think Ana's best chance at becoming a hurricane was overnight.

[NDG]

Looks like Ana has not strengthen overnight this morning, this is the lowest pressure the recon finds, NW quadrant winds have barely been above TS strength.

113430 3242N 07757W 8436 01480 0011 +155 +140 041018 019 026 000 00

[TheStormExpert]

Ana is right over the heart of the gulf stream and at this current strength upwelling does not come to play that much. As I mentioned before the immediate shallow coastal waters were well below 70 degrees before the storm move into the picture so as soon as Ana tracks away from the gulf stream she will start weakening.

Do you think Ana may still strengthen some?

[NDG]

Ana is right over the heart of the gulf stream and at this current strength upwelling does not come to play that much. As I mentioned before the immediate shallow coastal waters were well below 70 degrees before the storm move into the picture so as soon as Ana tracks away from the gulf stream she will start weakening.

Do you think Ana may still strengthen some?

I really doubt it, IMO.
In fact, all of the latest 06z intensity models show a steady slow weakening over the next 36 hrs.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

My guess is it has maxed out due to limited pre-season tropical potential.



Floater is back.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Live web cam from the Frying Pan Tower off of the NC coast, nice size waves according to a near by buoy reporting 12-15 foot waves.

http://explore.org/live-cams/player/frying-pan-cam

[TheStormExpert]

My guess is that the sudden burst in strengthening was due to the transition from Subtropical to Tropical. In fact it is already weakening in terms of pressure. It was 998mb @ 5am, now it's back up to 1001mb @ 8am.

[NDG]

The recon is finding plenty of TS force winds in the SE quadrant, here is some of the highest but may be rain contaminated. But finds plenty of 40-45 knots.

115130 3207N 07711W 8437 01516 0087 +126 +126 207048 049 053 024 00
115200 3206N 07710W 8432 01525 0091 +126 +126 206049 049 052 019 00

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6&mapcolor=gray

[NDG]

:uarrow: My guess is that the sudden burst in strengthening was due to the transition from Subtropical to Tropical. In fact it is already weakening in terms of pressure. It was 998mb @ 5am, now it's back up to 1001mb @ 8am.

Yes, I think that had to do a lot with it. I also just looked and it is now starting to move away from the warmest area of the loop current moving now into SSTs in the 75-77 deg range when it was over close to 80 deg SSTs yesterday.