ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Winds are definitely down from last evening. Possibly still some 45-50kts but generally lower. I think it peaked last evening.

[NDG]

To my surprise recon just found these winds as it approaches Ana's LLC on its NE quadrant which is fairly much deep convection free.

125100 3300N 07730W 8437 01519 0073 +130 +120 132050 051 045 001 00

[cycloneye]

Stays at 50kts.

AL, 01, 2015050912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 778W, 50, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of recon so far. Plane is flying toward the center on its way to the SW quadrant.

[gatorcane]

Nice looking system considering it is only early May. Saved vis loop:

[wxman57]

SW quadrant winds are about as light as the NW (30kts). NE quadrant is about 40kts and SE about 50kts in that heavier squall.

[NDG]

On radar you can clearly see that the LLC is separated from the mid level circulation.

[TheAustinMan]

Ana appears to be coalescing as the low level-circulation has once again tucked under the convection; this is probably the best Ana has looked so far, in my opinion.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

74 here in Southport NC today. We had a pretty strong rain band move through earlier this morning, but it has been sunny since. They have now upped projected rainfall totals to 6+ inches from the 3 they were predicting yesterday.

Just to give a little geography lesson. In case you didn't know. Southport sits at the mouth of the Cape Fear River, so I thought you guys might like a little reference for conditions.

[znel52]

I don't know if it is strengthening any but the satellite presentation has been improving over the last couple of hours and it looks better than it has it's entire life.

[seahawkjd]

Here is Morehead we are already getting some gusts close to tropical storm strength (33 mph according to NWS). Nothing bad but definitely noticeable. We've also had a few feeder bands come through with pretty heavy showers but they are moving quite fast.

[znel52]

Here is Morehead we are already getting some gusts close to tropical storm strength (33 mph according to NWS). Nothing bad but definitely noticeable. We've also had a few feeder bands come through with pretty heavy showers but they are moving quite fast.

Hey what's up seahawkjd? I'm from Carteret County as well. Grew up down east in Atlantic and now I stay in Newport. Small world. Same here on and off showers and a little bit of wind. Looks like we have a decent rain band trying to work it's way up to us but I'm not sure if it will make it.

[NDG]

The mid level circulation is kicking butt!!!! And as many have noticed the LLC has tugged closer to it.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes Ana does look fairly impressive at the moment, the best looking so far in fact. You can also see the trough that is expected to pick it up moving in on the upper left of the above saved loops.

[TheAustinMan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

Ana's mid-level circulation appears to be developing some sort of eye-like feature, and has been doing so for the past hour or two. Definitely not a true developing eye, though, given lackluster radar appearance and the fact that the low-level circulation center is still displaced form most of the thunderstorm activity.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The radar here out of Wilmington is indicating winds of 60-70kt at ~5kft. I wouldn't be surprised if Ana has intensified slightly this evening.

[galaxy401]

When does the next recon plane fly in?

[TheAustinMan]

When does the next recon plane fly in?

I believe the next flight will take off at 21:15 UTC (5:15 p.m. ET) and will reach the center at 23:00 UTC (7:00 p.m. ET).

[Nimbus]

Just goes to show how tropical storms are powered by heat differential between sea surface and the upper atmosphere. SST's only range from 21 to 26 degrees so there must be a seasonably cold Tropopause Layer. Of course the area off north Carolina is known for bombing the central pressure of coastal storms in the winter and those are not warm core.

After a couple puffs overnight the convection does seem to be more persistent. The front may undercut the system with shear from the SW soon, and the colder SST's and dry air close to shore may cause Ana to poof again as she approaches land. NHC still not wavering on track.

[NDG]

It will be interesting to see what the recon finds with Ana before she starts weakening later tonight, interesting that the buoy near the Frying Pan shows that the SSTs in that area have actually risen in the past 24 hrs by a couple of degrees.