ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Andrew92]

I do see what looks like a break in the convection going east of the eye though, so it looks to me like either it isn't wrapped around all the way, or dry air did indeed cut in on that side of the circulation.

Interesting storm to say the least.

-Andrew92

[JtSmarts]

I guess Ana is trying to troll us because that picture sure does look like a cane lol.

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to support 55 kt based on a 52 kt SFMR in calm conditions (59 kt in heavy rain).

[NDG]

Per vortex pressure is still 1001mb, but 66 knots flight level winds.


000
URNT12 KBIX 100047
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012015
A. 09/23:51:10Z
B. 33 deg 01 min N
078 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 47 kt
E. 218 deg 32 nm
F. 314 deg 46 kt
G. 219 deg 33 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 12 C / 1524 m
J. 16 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0601A ANA OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 66 KT 044 / 42 NM 00:05:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 39 C 212 / 22 NM FROM FL CNTR
SPIRAL BANDING
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 330 / 06 KT

[NDG]

68 knots flight level winds, maybe wind gusts in the mid 60s range at the surface, IMO.

010930 3340N 07832W 8429 01546 0103 +124 -005 064066 068 044 010 00
011000 3339N 07834W 8433 01541 0110 +112 -005 064064 068 040 008 00

[WilmingtonSandbar]

While rain has been coming down steadily since about 6pm this evening in Southport, it has not been heavy, and the winds have not been much more than a breeze. There is currently a loll in the rain, and temps have only dropped about 5 degrees to 70 since the sun went down. The sunset was incredible though. Pink and red with with the rain.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Ana is trying to get stronger as it sets to make landfall in South Carolina. Depending on how successful it is, this can turn out to be a strong tropical storm (65 mph - 73mph) any time soon. Recent flight wind data clocks this in at 75 mph, so surface estimates should be around 65mph at the least. We will see how this plays out in these last few hours. Recon is investigating to find out more for the 11pm advisory.




Synopsis for Ana and other storms: http://goo.gl/xlRO8k


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Live IR Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[brunota2003]

Buoy 41013 was sustained at 41 knots, gusting to 51 knots at 9:50 pm EDT. That is the Frying Pan Shoals, NC buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

Station OCPN7, Ocean Crest Pier, NC, recently was sustained at 37 knots, gusting to 46 knots...the first tropical storm force winds next to shoreline that I've seen (note that the anemometer is at 12.2 meters, which is 2.2 meters over the standard observing height of 10.0m).
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=OCPN7

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Rain has not been nearly what I expected in Southport. We had almost an hour and a half of no rain, and now it is back to a light rain. There have been reports of limited power outages from downed trees, but only a couple streets have been effected so far. Definitely not the amount I rain i expected for 7+ inches though. It will need to find a lot more rain to drop that on us.

[galaxy401]

With the recon data and organization earlier, I think Ana peaked at 55 knts and is now weakening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

Yes, the expected weakening is finally happening.

[NDG]

This is the fastest I have seen Ana track during the past several days.

[ozonepete]

As usual the models have the track nailed especially whenever we're within 24 hours. It's jogging a little more WNW to NW and then will turn north.

[brunota2003]

Ocean Crest Pier, NC is now sustained at 42 knots, gusting to 52 knots.

[AJC3]

Just goes to show how tropical storms are powered by heat differential between sea surface and the upper atmosphere. SST's only range from 21 to 26 degrees so there must be a seasonably cold Tropopause Layer. Of course the area off north Carolina is known for bombing the central pressure of coastal storms in the winter and those are not warm core.

After a couple puffs overnight the convection does seem to be more persistent. The front may undercut the system with shear from the SW soon, and the colder SST's and dry air close to shore may cause Ana to poof again as she approaches land. NHC still not wavering on track.

I strongly suspect it's less the differential between SST and tropopause temperature, and more SST vs mid level (i.e. 500MB) temperatures, although may be some correlation between the two (H50 and trope temps). Here's a post I made in the Medcane "Xandra" thread about this subject last year.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116987&p=2429573#p2429573

I should look at some 500MB analyses to see if the possible rule of thumb I mentioned |SST- T500| >= 30C would have worked in this case.

[TheStormExpert]

For the second earliest land falling Tropical Cyclone on record I'm sure impressed with her. Especially after how she looked last night.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Good morning from Southport, NC. Ana had less impact than predicted to our immediate area, thankfully. She came ashore between 35 and 40 miles south of us right before sunrise. The rain gauge in the yard is reading a 2 day total just at 2.5 inches. We are predicted up to another 2 inches today. I can see no wind damage along my road. We don't even have the random little branch or pine cone. For us, Ana was a nice little start to the tropical season.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

"Eye like feature"

[tolakram]