EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

It is happening, symmetrical and scary beautiful

[Hurricane Jed]

If this does make Cat 5, it'll easily best Ava for earliest Cat 5 for the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Any warming of the eye, and IMO, this has 140 locked up.

[Yellow Evan]

NHC might have to do a special advisory soon.

I was thinking that myself.

[Kingarabian]

Has to be a Cat 5. Waiting for ADT to update to confirm.

[TheAustinMan]

Hurricane Andres has certainly been an entertaining tropical cyclone, and unusual in how its been strengthening at ease over the past 24 hours even with roadblocks setting themselves up. It's a very beautiful hurricane right now, and perhaps it'll strengthen a bit more, but I think the conditions 24-36 hours from now are going to be too negative for Andres to keep this up unless it manages to somehow pull itself out of harms way.

[Yellow Evan]

This is Celia 10 all over again.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:29 N Lon : 119:12:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Seems off

[Kingarabian]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:29 N Lon : 119:12:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Seems off

It does. Or maybe TropicalAnalystwx13 is right and we need -80C?

[tolakram]

Wow.

Live IR loops:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-120&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-120&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:29 N Lon : 119:12:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Seems off

It does. Or maybe TropicalAnalystwx13 is right and we need -80C?

Marie didn't have -80C and it was a Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

With those -80C clouds increasing it has to be at least 7.1-7.2.

[Yellow Evan]

With those -80C clouds increasing it has to be at least 7.1-7.2.

Either ADT is underdoing the eye or it is cooling.

[talkon]

For a 7.0, the eye needs to be WMG (9C+) with a 0.5 deg ring of white.

[Yellow Evan]

For a 7.0, the eye needs to be WMG (9C+) with a 0.5 deg ring of white.

It has the latter, and is close to the former.

[talkon]

For a 7.0, the eye needs to be WMG (9C+) with a 0.5 deg ring of white.

It has the latter, and is close to the former.

The white ring is smaller than 0.5 deg.

BTW, this is a different 03:00 image, which looks stronger.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the GFS was right with it's crazy low pressure it had for this storm days ago! Kudos to the GFS!!

Once again the NHC really underperformed in terms of intensity only forecasting 80kts(90mph) at its peak.

Intensity is still a really tricky thing to forecast with these storms and hurricanes and last season in the East Pacific they underestimated the intensity of about 75% of their storms it seemed to me.

I'm in no way trying to cut on the NHC or anyone I'm just pointing out the obvious that we have a ways to go before we nearly perfect intensity forecasts just like we are now doing in terms of forecast tracks.

[Yellow Evan]

For a 7.0, the eye needs to be WMG (9C+) with a 0.5 deg ring of white.

It has the latter, and is close to the former.

The white ring is smaller than 0.5 deg.

BTW, this is a different 03:00 image, which looks stronger.

Depends how you measure it.

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix off, but



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:00 N Lon : 119:08:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C