EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

#381 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:18 am

With a really warm eye, I really don't see why it's not a 7.0?

#382 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:19 am

Kingarabian wrote:

With a really warm eye, I really don't see why it's not a 7.0?

The width of the white is not .5 degrees yet. It may be in the most recent frame.

#383 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:20 am

Looking at new frame, debatable, but I really think SAB will give this a T6.5.

#384 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:21 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Looking at new frame, debatable, but I really think SAB will give this a T6.5.

I'm thinking SAB may go higher.

#385 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:22 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looking at new frame, debatable, but I really think SAB will give this a T6.5.

I'm thinking SAB may go higher.

They might, but I'm not expecting it.

#386 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:26 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looking at new frame, debatable, but I really think SAB will give this a T6.5.

I'm thinking SAB may go higher.

They might, but I'm not expecting it.

Because the ADT is always bullish. I've only seen it bearish when it had trouble with center fixes.

#387 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:Because the ADT is always bullish. I've only seen it bearish when it had trouble with center fixes.

I'm talking about SAB, not ADT. ADT yea could reach 7.0 in an hour or so.

#388 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:29 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Because the ADT is always bullish. I've only seen it bearish when it had trouble with center fixes.

I'm talking about SAB, not ADT. ADT yea could reach 7.0 in an hour or so.

Yeah I know what you're talking about, just adding on to ADT.

#389 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:30 am

#390 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:31 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Because the ADT is always bullish. I've only seen it bearish when it had trouble with center fixes.

I'm talking about SAB, not ADT. ADT yea could reach 7.0 in an hour or so.

Yeah I know what you're talking about, just adding on to ADT.

K. The suspense is killing me. This is like a buzzer beater.

talkon · #391 Postby **talkon** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:32 am

6.0

TXPZ26 KNES 010628
TCSENP

A. 01E (ANDRES)

B. 01/0600Z

C. 15.4N

D. 119.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W WITH 1.0
ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...KIBLER

=

#392 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:33 am

wtf....

#393 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:34 am

Yellow Evan wrote:K. The suspense is killing me. This is like a buzzer beater.

Initially, I was worried about it getting to Cat.5 and then weakening back to Cat.4 before the advisory.

Happy it's still working.

#394 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:35 am

FYI, it's late, so I'm tired, but AFAIK this is not a LG. This is a B or W ring.

talkon · #395 Postby **talkon** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:35 am

I guess the black is a little less than 0.5 deg.

#396 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:36 am

Yellow Evan wrote:wtf....

I'm comparing Andres Dvorak imagery with past Cat.5 hurricanes Dvorak imagery and other than larger CDO's, I don't see differences.

#397 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:36 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

This isn't updating. Maybe they're re-doing it?

Edit: Link is now dead.

#398 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:37 am

Krit-tonkla wrote:I guess the black is a little less than 0.5 deg.

Or they're using a different algorithm.

#399 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:38 am

I guess it's legit. Wonder if this gets thrown out or not.

01/0600 UTC 15.4N 119.5W T6.0/6.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

#400 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:40 am

Yellow Evan wrote:I guess it's legit. Wonder if this gets thrown out or not.

01/0600 UTC 15.4N 119.5W T6.0/6.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

Even if they were not sure about the convection, microwave imagery showed a completed strong eyewall earlier.

EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

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