EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2015052618, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1008W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2015052700, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1018W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 92, 2015052706, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1028W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[tolakram]

Euro still showing two systems. Echo echo

[Yellow Evan]

Looks good, but the thunderstorms are removed from the center.

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2015052712, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1048W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 31 37 52 71 82 93 97 99 100 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 31 37 52 71 82 93 97 99 100 92
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 46 57 68 75 77 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 6 5 10 5 7 8 10 7 3 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 7 7 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 11 7
SHEAR DIR 53 44 26 8 355 58 39 14 354 355 313 324 231
SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 167 166 165 162 161 160 157 153 151 146 138
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 79 78 81 79 77 70 66 63 64 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 15 17 21 24 29 33 34 37 36
850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 37 35 31 35 38 45 64 85 104 104 103
200 MB DIV 150 156 156 136 120 138 134 137 117 81 82 113 91
700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 3
LAND (KM) 940 961 982 979 994 1032 1075 1117 1145 1129 1071 989 883
LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.4 11.3 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.8
LONG(DEG W) 102.8 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.7 109.8 111.5 112.7 113.4 113.8 113.9 113.9 113.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 13 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 61 65 73 76 66 79 77 68 46 33 25 20 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 32. 37. 39. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 38.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 5. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 17. 32. 51. 63. 73. 77. 79. 80. 72.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 48 67 82 94 98 100 99 92 86
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 48 67 82 94 98 100 99 92 86
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 57 71 83 88 84 75 64
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 6 7 9 6 5 9 6 5 5 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 6 6 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 6 8 6
SHEAR DIR 43 26 18 6 42 74 26 28 334 309 289 212 232
SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.3 27.3 26.5 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 165 163 161 160 158 155 146 135 127 119
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.3 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -50.3 -51.0 -50.3 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 78 80 81 78 75 70 64 59 58 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 20 22 27 30 34 36 35 36
850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 38 33 34 38 37 47 52 55 59 67 79
200 MB DIV 160 162 148 127 135 155 122 146 88 121 87 69 56
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -5 -1 0 2 0 1 4
LAND (KM) 1019 1021 1027 1039 1058 1076 1094 1080 1042 915 810 721 637
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.3 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.3 111.0 112.1 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 8 5 4 6 6 5 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 67 75 72 65 72 78 77 60 39 16 1 4 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 16. 23. 28. 33. 37. 36. 36.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 42. 57. 69. 73. 75. 74. 67. 61.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

With record warm sea surface temperatures and what is forecast to be an excellent upper-level setup, I have little doubt this won't grab the name Andres and intensify into at least a hurricane, if not a major hurricane. One limiting factor may be its broad size.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[tolakram]

Looks like the latest Euro run is going to keep the 2 storm idea. Leftmost down to 994 at 60 hours.

[tolakram]

987MB at 84 hours, the echo to the right 1002MB.

[Kingarabian]

987MB at 84 hours, the echo to the right 1002MB.

Maybe a marker is going to be needed by the NHC over that area soon?

Is there another low that is currently there or is the ECMWF somehow spinning another one up?

[tolakram]

I don't see anything suspicious looking yet. I can't find a good view of that area from the BuildYourOwn sat page.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=19&lon=-125&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

As far as this invest goes, it peaks at 985MB in 120 hours then fades as it drifts west. The smaller storm to the right continues to gain intensity until it's just off the Mexican coast at 971MB in 204 hours.

[tolakram]

Model Images





I suppose two distinct storms is looking a little more feasible?

[Kingarabian]

I think this could be it:



Anywho, I think the NHC will also bring it up in the discussion soon.

[cycloneye]

I notice a very small island around 10N-109W.(See tiny yellow dot) What is the name and if people live there?

[Yellow Evan]

Clipperton Island I tnink, a French navy base of a few bozen.

[Yellow Evan]

12z HWRF

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922015 05/27/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 43 51 67 82 91 96 95 94 88 84
V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 43 51 67 82 91 96 95 94 88 84
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 39 50 62 72 77 76 72 66 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 10 14 10 12 11 9 8 10 11 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 4 2 -2 -4 -3 1 0 6 7 6
SHEAR DIR 48 66 47 50 45 29 14 349 1 312 299 244 274
SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 163 162 159 152 147 141 136 130 126 121
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 75 75 72 67 62 56 50 50 51 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 17 20 25 29 33 35 35 36 36
850 MB ENV VOR 53 48 45 38 49 64 68 87 95 104 113 109 114
200 MB DIV 182 169 157 139 126 84 90 57 62 30 55 59 21
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 0 1 2 8 11
LAND (KM) 1052 1089 1135 1161 1199 1245 1186 1135 1077 1019 967 898 831
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 8 5 4 4 4 5 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 68 65 75 78 73 43 22 13 10 6 17 7 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 26. 42. 57. 66. 71. 70. 69. 63. 59.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 154.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/27/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##