EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2015053000, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1002W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053006, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1007W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1012W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053018, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1017W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, ep742015 to ep932015,
EP, 93, 2015053100, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1021W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0,

[Kingarabian]

The main event is here, folks.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS runs will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

Wow,looking at the visible image it looks good. The season is young so I wouldn't say a main event for the season but if the models are right we may be having fun tracking Blanca.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

93E should be slow to develop over the coming days as it's sheared by Hurricane Andres, but I agree it should become a potent hurricane later down the road. Maybe even our first major hurricane assuming Andres doesn't become one.

[cycloneye]

Another thing to look is if Blanca will make a landfall as the models show or it stays in open waters as Andres did.

[Yellow Evan]

Another thing to look is if Blanca will make a landfall as the models show or it stays in open waters as Andres did.

GFS likes to keep this over open water.

[Yellow Evan]

93E should be slow to develop over the coming days as it's sheared by Hurricane Andres, but I agree it should become a potent hurricane later down the road. Maybe even our first major hurricane assuming Andres doesn't become one.

Right now, I don't see any inhibiting factors, but shear is question, and the ECMWF isn't that bullish with it. Dry air Andres hopefully gets rid of.

[Kingarabian]

Wow,looking at the visible image it looks good. The season is young so I wouldn't say a main event for the season but if the models are right we may be having fun tracking Blanca.

Main event of the week

[cycloneye]

Another thing to look is if Blanca will make a landfall as the models show or it stays in open waters as Andres did.

GFS likes to keep this over open water.

18z GFS makes landfall in Baja California but very weak at that point.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings it down to 947 mbar.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, have increased and become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres
are likely to inhibit the development of this low for the next
couple of days. However, these winds should weaken by Monday, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as
this system drifts generally northwestward and then becomes nearly
stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Finnally ATCF made the first update for 93E.

EP, 93, 2015053000, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1002W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053006, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1007W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1012W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
EP, 93, 2015053018, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1017W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, ep742015 to ep932015,
EP, 93, 2015053100, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1021W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0,

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932015 05/31/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 39 49 57 66 74 81
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 25 31 39 49 57 66 74 81
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 18 21 25 32 41 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 26 26 25 25 20 15 6 6 11 13 13 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -6 0 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 317 319 318 313 311 322 316 356 73 84 78 66 62
SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 166 163 162 161 161 161 160 161
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 81 81 84 82 83 83 83 79 77 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 10 13 15 18 21 26
850 MB ENV VOR -62 -68 -63 -55 -63 -63 -53 -37 -18 4 18 37 50
200 MB DIV 68 71 53 66 92 88 114 78 115 87 117 141 164
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 0
LAND (KM) 605 600 596 600 607 584 581 617 654 730 845 982 1083
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.7 11.9 11.0 10.3
LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.2 103.7 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.5 109.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 82 86 87 89 88 88 85 75 64 55 54 67 67

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 46.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 26. 32.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 29. 37. 46. 54. 61.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 05/31/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

I am interested to see how the improved HWRF performs with this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am interested to see how the improved HWRF performs with this.

HWRF was the best in the ePac last season

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF was the best in the ePac last season

It's done so so with Andres.

[Yellow Evan]

howers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, have become a little less organized this evening. Strong
upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres are likely to
inhibit the development of this low for the next day or so. However,
these winds should weaken on Monday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of next week as this system drifts
generally northwestward and then becomes nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

00z HWRF goes down to 977 mbs in 126 hours.