ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Tropical Storm

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tolakram
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#41 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 08, 2015 1:21 pm

Euro has this dissipating before reaching the coast, probably due to the low moisture in the area. GFS shows a very strong storm hitting near Muscat. Why the discrepancy and what model usually does better in this basin?
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#42 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:21 pm

EC has been AWFUL. It hardly even had the storm forming. It has a significant low intensity bias in the region
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#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:46 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2015 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 20:31:58 N Lon : 64:37:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.7mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Cyclonic Storm

#44 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:35 am

01A ASHOBAA 150609 0600 20.6N 64.4E IO 50 985

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Meteosat-7.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Cyclonic Storm

#45 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:19 am

Convection is dropping off fast. May have reached peak intensity yesterday. 00Z and 06Z GFS runs changed their tunes dramatically, indicating a much weaker storm moving into SE Oman Thursday.
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#46 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:22 am

starting to recover a bit in the last couple of hours.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Cyclonic Storm

#47 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:43 am

Very little convection left now. I'm measuring a movement of 11.5 kts past 8 hrs. I don't think it will recover to be as strong as it was yesterday (maybe 55 kts then).
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#48 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:11 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

becoming better organized
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#49 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:51 pm

Alyono wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=15-IO-01A.ASHOBAA,15-EPAC-02E.BLANCA,15-EPAC-94E.INVEST&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2015&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015/io012015.15060912.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015/io012015.15060912.gif&CURRENT=20150609.2146.gcomw1.x.89h.01AASHOBAA.55kts-982mb-211N-627E.56pc.jpg&CURRENT_ATCF=io012015.15060912.gif&ATCF_NAME=io012015&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015&MO=JUN&BASIN=IO&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2015&YR=15&STORM_NAME=01A.ASHOBAA&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc15/IO/02E.BLANCA/tpw/microvap&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc15/IO/01A.ASHOBAA/amsr2/89h/2degreeticks&TYPE=amsr2&PROD=89h&SUB_PROD=2degreeticks

becoming better organized


It sure is looking better tonight.

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#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:52 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUN 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 21:11:36 N Lon : 61:40:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 981.5mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 3.8

Center Temp : -73.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Cyclonic Storm

#51 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:04 am

01A ASHOBAA 150610 1200 20.9N 61.2E IO 55 982

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Cyclonic Storm

#52 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:55 pm

It's falling apart fast. Hard to identify an LLC now. Very little convection.
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#53 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:30 pm

What happened to it?
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:20 am

01A ASHOBAA 150611 0600 20.8N 60.6E IO 40 993

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Meteosat-7.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby tolakram » Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:22 am

Saved visible loop

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