EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2015060806, , BEST, 0, 100N, 900W, 25, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

Shower activity is showing some signs of organization in association
with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are expected to
be conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few
days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVES EP942015 06/08/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 33 34 36 38
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 25 26 26 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 6 4 4 3 6 12 15 17 17 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 -4 0 -3 -5 -7 -8 -4 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 175 230 168 187 196 193 227 275 282 258 260 256 256
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.1 29.6 28.7 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 158 161 167 169 169 166 162 157 149 144
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 86 84 83 82 80 78 74 73 74 74 75 71 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 65 72 74 63 62 69 97 89 96 92 97
200 MB DIV 170 128 101 79 73 40 45 51 49 56 39 55 46
700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1
LAND (KM) 364 323 283 243 191 92 44 10 -30 -84 -120 -103 -20
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.3 90.7 91.0 91.3 92.0 92.6 93.0 93.2 93.2 93.3 93.5 93.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 21 24 28 26 15 47 45 39 35 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 31/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 7. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 13.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVES 06/08/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVES 06/08/15 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

GFS/ECMWF are more bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/ECMWF are more bullish.

Vertical shear direction is hurting the SHIPS output. That and "GOES predictions".

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad low pressure area centered several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form around the
middle of the week while this system moves slowly northwestward or
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Models are a little bit bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

Such a great basin.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942015 06/08/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 47 60 72 81 85 88 89 89 87
V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 47 60 72 81 85 88 89 89 65
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 31 35 43 53 66 81 94 103 106 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 13 10 10 11 15 16 16 13 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 4 5 6
SHEAR DIR 75 93 118 124 119 107 75 76 78 71 75 85 36
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 166 166 167 166 165 163 162 164 165 164
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 10 9 11 9 10 8
700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 76 75 72 70 69 68 69 71 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 57 57 56 61 63 57 49 55 51 75 72
200 MB DIV 176 145 124 106 67 64 49 79 84 86 79 103 67
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 4
LAND (KM) 638 602 567 526 495 425 319 249 210 182 158 85 -45
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.9 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.6 15.1 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.4 93.8 94.2 94.7 95.7 96.9 97.9 98.6 98.7 98.3 97.3 96.7
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 2 1 4 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 26 39 72 51 45 54 55 48 36 43

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 11. 11. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 35. 47. 56. 60. 63. 64. 64. 62.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms are slowly becoming better organized in
association with a broad low pressure area centered several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next two to three days while the this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2015060900, , BEST, 0, 95N, 960W, 25, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942015 06/08/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 69 74 79 83 86 83 77
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 69 74 79 83 86 83 77
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 63 77 90 99 105 108 109
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 14 15 16 17 17 21 20 18 10 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -3 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 0 0 2 4
SHEAR DIR 98 109 104 95 95 86 67 66 77 73 74 62 5
SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3
POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 165 166 166 167 165 164 159 164 167 168 168
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 74 73 71 68 68 66 67 71 75 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 12 13 11 12 14 14 11 7
850 MB ENV VOR 69 69 68 65 62 63 55 57 36 34 30 49 64
200 MB DIV 151 119 90 71 60 50 64 81 78 98 105 92 55
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -5 0 2
LAND (KM) 598 598 603 584 533 461 407 373 360 338 295 167 19
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.2 15.8
LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.0 95.4 95.9 96.4 97.5 98.7 99.6 100.0 99.5 98.0 96.3 95.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 0 5 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 35 51 48 49 56 56 60 49 36 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 40. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 8. 9. 5. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 44. 49. 54. 58. 61. 58. 52.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/08/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

If this wants to really get a head start, it needs to form now.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942015 06/09/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 55 66 72 76 80 77 74 72
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 55 66 72 76 80 77 74 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 35 45 57 71 82 89 94 99 86
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 14 13 17 21 23 25 22 11 5 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 1 0 2 1 1
SHEAR DIR 117 103 86 91 86 77 68 77 74 81 71 14 58
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 166 166 167 163 157 158 166 167 167 165
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 10
700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 74 72 68 67 64 68 74 73 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 15 12 8 6
850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 53 58 62 63 58 40 41 26 46 46 72
200 MB DIV 143 115 73 51 54 46 80 74 76 110 104 46 39
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 1 4
LAND (KM) 688 667 648 613 578 522 472 442 422 386 277 133 -29
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.4 12.2 12.8 13.0 12.8 13.3 14.6 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 96.9 97.4 97.9 99.0 100.0 100.7 100.7 99.4 97.0 95.7 95.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 5 6 7 6 5 3 3 9 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 25 29 34 40 41 41 46 44 45 53 46 33 41

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 358 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 4. -2. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 30. 41. 47. 51. 55. 52. 49. 47.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 06/09/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

18z HWRF

[Yellow Evan]

Model war going on. 0z and 12z GFS along with the GFDL bring this near MX by Day 4. ECMWF and HWRF and CMC and BANM keep this offshore for around 5 days, and weaken it after that time, due to either land interaction, upwelling, or shear.

0z GFS is alling with the ECMWF. In the SE EPAC, we see the opposite.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
changed little in organization. However, environmental conditions
remain conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next
two to three days while the this system moves slowly northwestward
or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Little in organization? It's fallen off a cliff and looks lousy.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2015060912, , BEST, 0, 90N, 960W, 25, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Although the associated shower activity has recently decreased,
satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure several
hundred miles south of Gulf Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain conducive for a
tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while
this system moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Burst of convection near the center.