EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Not yet.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 101.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of
Carlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours.
A subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in
the overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds. The
subjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged
as well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be
generous. The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain,
especially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over
water and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours.
On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to
indicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as
a category 1 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise
of both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in
24 hours. Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is
expected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable
thermodynamic environment. Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast
calls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and
dissipation at day 5.

It appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the
building mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now
moving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue
on this track through the 36 hour period. Afterwards, the dynamical
models show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of
Carlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward
the coast of Mexico. The official forecast reflects this expected
change in the steering pattern. The NHC forecast is again shifted
to the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a
blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Carlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Extratropical94]

Still a TS

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...COMPACT CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[Extratropical94]

EP, 03, 2015061512, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1023W, 60, 988, TS

[Extratropical94]

Recon aircraft AF308 is on the runway and about to depart from Keesler AFB.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to have fallen apart for reasons I can't explain.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

First-light visible satellite imagery indicates Carlos remains a
very small tropical cyclone. An earlier GCOM-AMSR microwave pass
also indicated the compact nature of the system, including a closed
5-10 nmi diameter eye. The consensus of satellite intensity
estimates is 55 kt, but we'll hold the initial intensity at 60 kt
pending the arrival of a United States Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft.

The initial motion estimate is 290/05 kt. Carlos is expected
to maintain a slow west-northwestward motion and move essentially
parallel to the south-central coast of Mexico for the next 24-36
hours. After that time, there is a distinct bifurcation in the model
guidance with how strong the mid-level ridge across northern Mexico
and Texas is forecast to be. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the
BAM models keep the ridge stronger and also weaken Carlos, resulting
in the cyclone moving westward at 48 hours and beyond. In contrast,
the ECMWF and GFDL models weaken the ridge and keep Carlos stronger,
and gradually move the cyclone northwestward and then northward near
the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time. Given that the
large low pressure system currently located over the central Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to move inland over Texas by 48 hours, which
should act to weaken the mid-level ridge to the north and northeast
of Carlos, the ECMWF-GFDL solution is preferred at this time. The
NHC official track forecast is essentially just an update of the
previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, and
GFDL forecast tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right
of the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

The very small size of Carlos makes the cyclone susceptible to small
fluctuations in the vertical wind shear. However, the general trend
in the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is calling for the shear to
decrease to less than 5 kt by 48 hours and beyond, which should
allow for some strengthening to occur over 29C SSTs . Carlos is
expected to weaken into a depression by 72 hours due to
land interaction and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment,
becoming a remnant low by 96 hrs, and dissipating by 120 hrs. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Recon finding low-end hurricane status but a pressure of 994 mbar.

I'd go 70/991.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE
STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Carlos is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move
parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over
the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of
the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the
coastline.

Reports from an United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, once again making Carlos a
category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next
day or so.

Carlos remains a small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

I could go 70 knts based on on SFMR, but I think it got to the deepest convection.

[Yellow Evan]

15/1745 UTC 16.8N 102.9W T4.0/4.0 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Dvorak on par with Recon

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along
with SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two
dropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62
and 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos
has been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1
hurricane once again.

The initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after
36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to
take a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the
ECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a
little stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Given the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and
northeast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the
large low pressure system currently located over the west-central
Gulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track
to the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the
preferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast
lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast
tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the
forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

The general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to
continue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of
light shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight
strengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact
nature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be
short-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity
during that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting
with the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone
weakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating
into a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is
expected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Weirdest looking hurricane I've seen in the EPAC in a long time.

[Yellow Evan]

Weirdest looking hurricane I've seen in the EPAC in a long time.

This is the weirdest EPAC storm I've tracked.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201506152345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1710N, 10330W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, VI, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

TXPZ28 KNES 160030
TCSENP

A. 03E (CARLOS)

B. 15/2345Z

C. 17.1N

D. 103.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND LLCC. CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN OW FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.5 BASED ON 24
HOUR STEADY TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/2122Z 17.1N 103.0W SSMI


...RUMINSKI

I'd go 60.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 65 64 62 61 61 61 60 59 60
V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 65 64 62 61 61 61 60 59 60
V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 67 67 67 67 66 67 68 70 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 6 8 8 5 7 5 11 10 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 3 -1 4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 17 20 6 346 4 330 336 246 228 226 213 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 151 151 148 147 150 151 151 148 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 10 7 10 7 8 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 59 57 59 57 62 62 65 65 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -16 -20 -17 -13 1 20 37 56 55 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -6 -4 -20 -16 -7 -21 5 -7 6 5 7 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 113 113 115 114 98 72 59 68 76 80 105 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 103.3 103.7 104.2 104.6 104.9 105.6 106.1 106.2 106.2 106.4 106.9 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 27 19 14 10 9 8 7 11 16 20 24 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160845
TCDEP3

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

The satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with
the clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C.
Furthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a
small banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt
of northerly shear. Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at
65 kt for this advisory. Little change in strength is expected
during the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated
through the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity
model, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble. The
aforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the
cyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence
and drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest
Mexico. The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in
Carlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days.

Carlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over
the past 12 hours. A turn to the north-northwest is expected
Wednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the
subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico. Carlos
is forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in
5 days. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left
of the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model
consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[talkon]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161439
TCDEP3

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Recent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well-
organized hurricane. A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave
data, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite
images. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane
should provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few
hours. The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos
being such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or
down--are a distinct possibility. The SHIPS diagnostics don't show
environmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and
LGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days. The
global models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with
the ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame.
The official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that
dry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few
days, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by
day 4. As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The initial motion is 290/4 kt. A gradual turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days,
which should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a
bit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope
and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Since the ECMWF dissipates the
cyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS
solution after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

CDO looking better. Who knows, maybe we're on to something, but I really doubt it since I say that with every storm.

[galaxy401]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 161736
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. Carlos is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.
However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast
track would bring Carlos closer to the coastline.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24
hours, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Carlos is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 984 mb
(29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area through this evening.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango,
and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible
through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Based on recon, I'd go 80 knts.