EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

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#261 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 16, 2015 1:28 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/16/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 83 82 77 73 68 64 59 57 55 55
V (KT) LAND 80 83 84 83 82 77 73 68 64 59 57 55 55
V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 86 86 84 80 76 73 70 68 66 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 8 9 8 1 3 5 9 12 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 19 17 10 359 1 54 241 120 152 166 206 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 146 143 141 142 141 143 147 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 56 54 56 56 59 59 63 62 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -18 -6 -16 -22 13 8 35 29 34 32 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -23 -2 0 -5 -2 3 -19 19 4 8 -3 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 115 122 112 98 92 109 101 91 96 109 115 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.5 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.6 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 10 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 7 15 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -23. -25. -25.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/16/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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#262 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:20 pm

An official record is not maintained, but Carlos is likely one of the smallest hurricanes on record in the East Pacific. Hurricane-force winds extend out 10 miles from the center.

Recon recorded peak flight-level winds of 90kt and peak surface winds of 81kt. Carlos may become a Category 2 hurricane tonight if dry air does not disrupt its intensification process.

Image
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Re:

#263 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:35 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Based on recon, I'd go 80 knts.



EP, 03, 2015061618, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1042W, 80, 984, HU


Best track agrees with you.
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Hurricane

#264 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:13 pm

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Carlos is a feisty little hurricane. Despite the hurricane's
satellite presentation, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds
between 80-85 kt. The maximum surface winds are therefore estimated
to be 80 kt. The flight meteorologist also indicated that Carlos's
eye was about 7-8 n mi wide. There continues to be low confidence
in the intensity forecast, since none of the models seem to be able
to handle Carlos's size particularly well. The statistical-
dynamical models keep Carlos as a hurricane for another three days
or so, while the global and regional dynamical models indicate fast
weakening (the ECMWF shows dissipation within 24 hours!). The NHC
official intensity forecast indicates gradual weakening through day
3, with dissipation by day 4. However, Carlos's small size makes it
susceptible to large swings in intensity, and even a slight increase
in shear or dry air could lead to faster weakening than indicated.

Based on the aircraft fixes, Carlos appears to have turned
northwestward, or 305/4 kt, toward a break in the subtropical
ridge located over northern Mexico and Texas. Since the most
reliable track models dissipate the cyclone so soon, the official
forecast relies on the remaining available guidance (GFDL, NAVGEM,
and GFNI) more than usual. The updated NHC track forecast is
essentially a blend of the available guidance and the previous
official forecast.

Due to the high uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts,
the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the coast of
Mexico will be unchanged.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.8N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#265 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:45 pm

If there were higher SFMR readings, I would have gone 85 kt for the intensity.
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#266 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:08 pm

Seems to have fallen apart.
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Re:

#267 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Seems to have fallen apart.


We simply don't know what's going on with this storm.
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Re: Re:

#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Seems to have fallen apart.


We simply don't know what's going on with this storm.


It's a big mystery, partially due to its size.

It can rebound if it doesn't become fully exposed for any major length of time.
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Hurricane

#269 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:52 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...TINY HURRICANE CARLOS REMAINS OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 104.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.7 West. Carlos is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast by Thursday. On the forecast track,
Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small
deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring the
center of Carlos near the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Carlos could remain a hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango,
and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible
through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches
are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Hurricane

#270 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:36 pm

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tiny hurricane Carlos' surface circulation is appearing to become
unglued from its deep convection and its mid-level circulation.
While a mid-level center may be co-located within the convection
near 17.5N 105.0W, the surface center is located substantially
farther northeast. However, it is an open question as to where
exactly it is currently located. My best estimate shown below is
based upon last-light visible imagery and a very timely 0051Z
WindSat microwave pass.

The initial position suggests a current motion of 315/4 kt.
Decaying Carlos should continue to move toward the northwest at
about the same rate of speed, as it gets advected along by the
low-level flow. As all of the global models lose the circulation
of Carlos within a day, the track forecast is based upon a blend of
persistence and the BAM advection models. Due to the more northward
initial position, the track prediction is farther north than that
from the previous advisory.

The areal extent of deep convection is also diminishing and the
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping in
response. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based upon a 4.0 CI
number from both agencies, which represents a substantial drop
from what the aircraft reconnaissance observed only several hours
ago. It is quite possible that the tropical cyclone is even weaker
than indicated here, given the rather abrupt dislocation of the
convection from the center. Embedded within an increasingly dry and
stable atmosphere coupled with moderate northerly vertical shear,
Carlos should continue to weaken. The official forecast is a blend
between the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models (which slowly weaken
Carlos) and the HWRF and GFDL dynamical models (which nearly
immediately dissipate Carlos). This forecast is substantially below
the predictions from the last advisory due to the quick reversal
from intensification to weakening. Given the tiny size of the
system, the very rapid dissipation indicated by the dynamical models
is not out of the question.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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#271 Postby weathernerdguy » Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:51 pm

And, it's dead.
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Storm

#272 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:20 am

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate
as the surface circulation separates further from the remaining
less organized and shrinking deep convection. Moderate northerly
shear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud
pattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the
contributing factor in the sudden weakening trend. Small, compact,
tropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as
quickly as they can rapidly intensify. The initial intensity is
lowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given
that the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small
tropical cyclones. The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening
through the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous
terrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the
24 hour period. The current forecast philosophy is that
Carlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of
its expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of
California. Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should
occur in 48 hours or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt. The primary
steering mechanism through the forecast period is the
south-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the
east-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending
southward from the Gulf of California. The official forecast,
which is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based
primarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS,
and the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Storm

#273 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:23 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...RAPIDLY WEAKENING CARLOS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF PLAYA PERULA MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.1 West. Carlos is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the
western coast of Mexico by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected as
Carlos moves near or over the coast of western Mexico today. The
cyclone is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight and a
remnant low by Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Storm

#274 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:46 am

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

After a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning,
first-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the
convection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU
overpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but
well-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its
proximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity
estimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around
40 kt, which was used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings.
Carlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of
Mexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge
and steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain
of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur
sooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this
morning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to
happen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF
models, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Depression

#275 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 105.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located along the coast of western Mexico near latitude 19.9
North, longitude 105.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Carlos will move near or along the
western coast of Mexico today, and move into the southern Gulf of
California late tonight or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low this afternoon or evening and dissipate on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the Mexican states of Jalisco
and Colima. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. During the
past 24 hours, an automated observation station at Chamelaciuxmala,
Mexico, reported 1.54 inches (39 mm) of rainfall.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Depression

#276 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:51 pm

It's gone!
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Depression

#277 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:02 pm

Carlos has to be one of the most rapidly decaying tropical systems I've seen! I remember noting how tenacious it still looked yesterday morning and by afternoon was looking like it had decoupled to what he looks like now:

Image
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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

#278 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:33 pm

Bye Carlos.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult
to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located
near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been
absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little
convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by
the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being
designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued
at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue
during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic
conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an
open trough by Thursday. The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for
dissipation within the next 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24
hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move
slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak
mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and
move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where
dissipation of the system is expected.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#279 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:12 pm

Over 24 hours ago, he was at his peak. It really weakened!
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: CARLOS - Tropical Depression

#280 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Jun 17, 2015 7:24 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Carlos has to be one of the most rapidly decaying tropical systems I've seen! I remember noting how tenacious it still looked yesterday morning and by afternoon was looking like it had decoupled to what he looks like now:


Reminds me of Tropical Storm Don from 2011, totally fell apart just before landfall in South Texas, when everyone was looking for it to be a drought-buster.
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