WPAC: KUJIRA - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CURVED NOTCH ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE INDICATING THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
NOTCH IN THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY THE 221732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 31 TO 33 KNOTS AT SANYA FENGHUANG (ZJSY),
CHINA (SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HAINAN). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL TO POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS KUJIRA IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 08W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES HAINAN
ISLAND AND ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASED VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA, WHERE IT
WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF
TONKIN AND IS NOW CLOSING IN ON THE VIETNAM COAST. THE CYCLONE HAS
SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFIED AS IT EXITED FROM THE ISLAND OF HAINAN AND
INTO WARM WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS KUJIRA IS TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VIETNAM BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
Very deep convection...
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 20:30:04 N Lon : 108:05:55 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 990.6mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0
Center Temp : -61.4C Cloud Region Temp : -53.8C
Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 47.9 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 20:30:04 N Lon : 108:05:55 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 990.6mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0
Center Temp : -61.4C Cloud Region Temp : -53.8C
Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 47.9 degrees
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 20:08:01 N Lon : 107:45:47 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 985.9mb/ 51.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -59.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 48.0 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUN 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 20:08:01 N Lon : 107:45:47 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 985.9mb/ 51.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -59.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 48.0 degrees
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
Tremendous rain for vietnam with over 20 inches near Hanoi...
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Tropical Storm
WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 106.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 106.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.1N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.6N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 106.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM WHILE THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY THE 232332Z PGTW FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND AND FURTHER DETERIORATE LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: KUJIRA - Post-Tropical
Very interesting. Kujira could have been a typhoon as sustained winds of 78 mph was recorded in Bach long Vi off the Vietnam coast was recorded as it was trying to build an eyewall...Postseason upgrade...
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/48839/2015/06/24/DailyHistory.html
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/48839/2015/06/24/DailyHistory.html
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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