WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 150623 0600 6.0N 145.0E WPAC 15 1010

Southeast of Yap...

[euro6208]

Models are robust and unpleasant weather for the islands...

SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH REGARDS TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO DISPLAYS AN
BAND OF ENHANCED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK
STATE WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 6N147E. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN NWP MODELS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER CHUUK WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THUS EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TOMORROW. GFS DEVELOPS THE CIRCULATION INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION-
LIKE FEATURE BRINGING IT BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP SUNDAY. GAVE THIS
SCENARIO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING AT LEAST IN THE FORECAST FOR
CHUUK AND YAP. FOR YAP...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF YAP COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR KOROR...MODELS
SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR KOROR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THE BAND TO MOVE NORTH OVER KOROR THURSDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK.

[euro6208]

CMC brings it over Guam



EURO doesn't do much with this

[euro6208]

GFS bottoms Chan-hom to 976 mb after it passes between Yap and Guam...

[euro6208]

GFS has been on and off on this.

First indicating a track closer to Guam and peaking at 934 mb west of the Marianas.

Now it shows a somewhat struggling system that intensifies slowly to a TS and aims for Okinawa...

EURO is the same. A slowly consolidating system during a Fujiwhara with another storm...

[euro6208]

GFS is super aggressive, passes Chan-hom closer to Guam and peaks at a monster 911mb and a huge hit for Taiwan slightly weaker

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N 144.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 250413Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 T0 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, NAMELY THE POLEWARD CHANNEL THAT IS
TAPPING INTO THE TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO just east of Luzon

[euro6208]

Crazy GFS run...Deepens Chan-hom to 910 mb, weakens and strengthens back to the 910's as it passes between Taiwan and Luzon and makes a big landfall over Hong Kong in the 930's...

[euro6208]

Not quite as bullish as earlier but still a pretty intense typhoon...

Peak



Landfall

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not quite as bullish as earlier but still a pretty intense typhoon...

Actually, that's not the system GFS is referring to

[euro6208]

CMC still developing this into one entity, a typhoon, until it merges with 95W...



EURO also develops this into a weak TS before merging with 95W



GFS doesn't at all develop this into anything significant...

[euro6208]

Still some model support with the majority saying it will get absorbed into 95W...

[Yellow Evan]

Looks almost there.

[euro6208]

Which one will become a TS first?

Either this gets Chan-hom or Linfa as GFS has both systems becoming one at the same time...

[euro6208]

Might as well post this here as there is great uncertainty. Someone is going to get alot of rain...

AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS MICRONESIA SOUTH OF
10N. TWO CIRCULATIONS COULD BE FOUND ON THE TROUGH...ONE SOUTH OF
GUAM NEAR 7N145E AND THE OTHER NEAR POHNPEI NEAR 7N160E. MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE CIRCULATIONS.
EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE THEMSELVES AS THE
PREDICTIONS CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. AT TIMES THEY ARE
INTERESTED IN THE POHNPEI CIRCULATION THEN THEY SWITCH TO BEING
INTERESTED IN THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE
TWO CIRCULATIONS COMBINING INTO ONE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY. ALL THAT PROBABLY CAN
BE AGREED ON AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

[euro6208]

A Tropical Depression?

[euro6208]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 7.6N 147.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.06.2015 7.7N 148.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.06.2015 8.4N 149.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.06.2015 8.8N 150.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.07.2015 8.4N 150.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2015 8.6N 153.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[euro6208]

Well the big models, EURO doesn,t develop this much while GFS has it as a TS for a short moment...