SouthPAC: RAQUEL - Tropical Cyclone

[Yellow Evan]

Keli 2.0 anyone?

[Yellow Evan]

GFS doesn't appear to be picking up on this much.

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jun 28/0409 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F CENTER {[1006HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 04.5S
163.3E AT 280300UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD17F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
ORGANISATION IS POOR WITH CONVECTION PERSISTANT AND DISPLACED FROM
SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGRESS
CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER TWO ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 11:00 AM ON MONDAY, 29TH JUNE 2015.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR ALL PROVINCES.

AT 5:00 AM THIS MORNING, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005
HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR 4.4 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 163.4 DEGREES LONGITUDE
EAST AND THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 281 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF MALAITA ISLAND.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 08 KNOTS, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.

EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 KNOTS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST PROVINCES AND ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE SWELLS AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

http://www.met.gov.sb/tropical-cyclone-warnings/tropical-disturbance

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER THREE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER THREE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 5:00 PM ON MONDAY, 29TH JUNE 2015.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR ALL PROVINCES.

AT 4:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR 4.1 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 161.9 DEGREES LONGITUDE
EAST AND THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 265 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALAITA ISLAND.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 09 KNOT AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS, POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

GALES WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP ABOUT THE MALAITA, ISABEL, WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND GUADALCANAL PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR
LANDSLIDES, MAY OCCUR OVER THESE PROVINCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE SWELLS AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 1:30AM TOMORROW MORNING.

DATE: 29TH JUNE 2015.
http://www.met.gov.sb/tropical-cyclone-warnings/tropical-disturbance

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 29 June 2015
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 2 July 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low has developed to the northeast of the Solomon Islands and is currently moving in a westwards direction.
The tropical low is expected to develop further over the next couple of days and could move into the Eastern Region area of responsibility during Tuesday.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th.
This out of season outlook is being issued due to the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jun 29/2313 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F CENTER [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 04.3S
160.5E AT 292100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD17F SLOW MOVING.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGRESS CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

TCFA Issued.

WTPS21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.9S 161.1E TO 5.9S 157.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 160.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO A RECENT (292226Z) METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT
A SOLID LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THE 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER SIX

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER SIX ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 3:30PM THIS AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY 30TH JUNE 2015.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR ALL PROVINCES.

AT 11:00 AM THIS MORNING, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002
HECTOPASCALS WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 4.5 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 160.7 DEGREES
LONGITUDE EAST AND THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 229 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MALAITA ISLAND AND
93 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF ONTONG JAVA ATOLLS.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 06KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS BY LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).

GALES WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP ABOUT THE MALAITA, ISABEL, WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND GUADALCANAL PROVINCES ON WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR
LANDSLIDES, MAY OCCUR OVER THESE PROVINCES TODAY AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE SWELLS AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 7:30PM THIS EVENING.

DATE: 30TH JUNE 2015.
http://www.met.gov.sb/tropical-cyclone-warnings/tropical-disturbance

[Yellow Evan]

SH, 90, 2015063006, , BEST, 0, 45S, 1605E, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 200, 45, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

SH, 90, 201506300532, 10, DVTS, CI, , 480S, 16070E, , 2, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , P, KNES, GS, VIM, 3, 2020 /////, , , MTSAT, LLCC, T, DT=2.0 BO SHR MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

Looks like a T1.5, but w/e.

[euro6208]

2.0 but in this part of the world, JTWC doesn't warn on TC's until they reach 2.5, a tropical storm...

TXPS26 KNES 300642
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)

B. 30/0532Z

C. 4.8S

D. 160.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM WAS MORE SHEARED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW CONVECTION
BUILDING AGAIN NEAR LLCC. DT=2.0 BASED ON SHEAR MATRIX OF CENTER NEAR
LARGE CONVECTION AREA. MET AND PAT ALSO 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

TPPS10 PGTW 300911

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (E OF SOLOMON IS)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 4.94S

D. 160.17E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 2.0. DBO PT AND
MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0342Z 4.48S 160.90E SSMI


UEHARA

[euro6208]

Looks like a short weak TS at most...

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Raquel

Issued at 5:00 am EST Wednesday 1 July 2015.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Raquel at 4:00 am EST:
Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 5.8 degrees South, 159.3 degrees East , 410 kilometres north of Honiara .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

[wxman57]

Looks like Raquel has been torn apart by shear.

[wxman57]

Good hit by ASCAT an hour or so ago. Convection has built back over the center. Not dead yet...

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 issued 0914 UTC Friday 3 July 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jul 03/0802 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD17F EX-TC RAQUEL CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 160.9E AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD17F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT AND HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTEND IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS
DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD17F TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 7.8S 160.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 8.7S 159.3E MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD17F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 031400 UTC.