WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has Linfa dissipating and being absorbed by Chan-hom next Tue/Wed.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 021829

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LINFA)

B. 02/1732Z

C. 15.73N

D. 128.20E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 2.0 DT. MET YIELDS A 1.5 AND PT YIELDS A 2.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1302Z 15.07N 128.65E MMHS


BERMEA

TXPQ25 KNES 021529
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LINFA)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 15.2N

D. 128.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .4 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/0947Z 14.7N 128.8E SSMIS
02/1006Z 15.0N 128.5E GMI


...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

LLC continues to be on the northeastern edge of the deepest convection...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT DEEP CORE OF CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 021302Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS, HEDGING HIGHER
THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE. TS
LINFA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TS LINFA WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT WILL OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. IN ADDITION, THE
APPROACH OF TY 09W FROM THE EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI), CAUSING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TS LINFA TO
BECOME MORE COMPLEX. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THEY DIVERGE NEAR TAU 36 WITH THE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS DIVERGENCE, IN ADDITION
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIAL DCI WITH TY 09W, LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Linfa is stronger than being reported. A recent ASCAT pass sampled 50kt winds in the southeastern quadrant.

Do West Pacific agencies know what ASCAT is? This is a common issue.

[Alyono]

typhoon in 24 hours is a possibility, if it is not already close to typhoon intensity now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1510 (LINFA)
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 3 July 2015

<Analyses at 03/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 04/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E122°30'(122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

[Alyono]

an eye may be trying to form

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[dexterlabio]

this is now a severe tropical storm per JMA


STS 1510 (LINFA)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 3 July 2015

<Analyses at 03/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Has been linked to several accidents (boat accidents) here

[xtyphooncyclonex]

STS 1510 (LINFA)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 3 July 2015

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 031242Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
WRAPPING IN ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 030931Z WINDSAT PASS AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WSAT DATA. TS LINFA
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72. TS LINFA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24
DESPITE THE HIGH VWS, AS THE OUTFLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. ONCE OVER
LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BEFORE EMERGING IN THE LUZON STRAIGHT,
WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-INSTENSIFICATION WILL BEGIN. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT IN THE SHORT TERM,
LARGELY DUE TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) BETWEEN TS 10W AND
TS 09W TAKING PLACE IN THE MODELS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, AN UNSEASONAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS, RESULTING IN A BREAK IN THE THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO RECURVE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEGRADE THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO WEAKENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH SOME MODELS
RECURVING MUCH SOONER DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DCI. ANOTHER GROUPING OF
MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE LARGE MODEL
SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIAL DCI WITH TS 09W, LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 031815

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 15.23N

D. 124.60E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT
AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1242Z 14.78N 125.07E MMHS
03/1327Z 15.12N 125.07E MMHS


MARTINEZ

TXPQ25 KNES 031508
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LINFA)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 15.7N

D. 125.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES UNDER LARGE, COLD OVERCAST
YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=2.5. MET=1.5 WITH PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/0934Z 15.1N 125.8E SSMIS
03/1027Z 15.3N 125.8E SSMIS
03/1242Z 15.5N 125.3E AMSU


...SALEMI

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED, BUT WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS SEEN IN A RECENT
021329Z SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 031326Z. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET
BY GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD ENHANCEMENT, ALLOWING
THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE LLCC. TS LINFA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72. EXPECT MODEST STRENGTHENING DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND THE PERSISTENT VWS. TS LINFA WILL RE-EMERGE OVER
WATER NEAR TAU 72 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER TS 10W AND BREAK IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SITS IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF TAIWAN. IN ADDITION, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM
THE EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI), CAUSING
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TS LINFA TO BECOME MORE COMPLEX. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 WITH THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS DIVERGENCE, IN ADDITION TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIAL DCI WITH TS 09W, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Looks like a typhoon...

[Alyono]

RAPIDSCAT showed this is nowhere close to typhoon intensity

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041307Z METOP-A IMAGE
INDICATES A COMPACT CORE OF WEAKLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE
CURRENT POSITION LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 24. EXPECT MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN LUZON NEAR TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. THE
SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD
AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES LUZON, WITH NAVGEM AND GFDN ERRONEOUSLY
TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AT VARYING DEGREES. THIS
IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE BREAK IN THE
STR, POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, AND STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 48 AND THE POOR MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

RAPIDSCAT showed this is nowhere close to typhoon intensity

The RapidSCat pass is 12 hours old now.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like a typhoon...

Nope...

______________
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "EGAY"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 04 July 2015

Severe Tropical Storm “EGAY” has made landfall over Palanan, Isabela.

Baler Radar shows a clear slot passing over Palanan but the microwave shows the convection still sheared from the center.

[wxman57]

Good recent microwave pass (wasn't available to JTWC before their advisory) indicates that the center was well south & west of JTWC's 18Z position. Close to 17.2N/122.3E and moving inland across Luzon. I'd estimate the center 16nm inland near 17.4N/121.9E as of 2230Z. That's about 50nm south of JTWC's track.