WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 11W
Tuesday 07jul15 Time: 1614 UTC
Latitude: 14.65 Longitude: 152.18
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 14 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 933 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 125 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -8.1 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.63
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.24
RMW: 19 km
RMW Source is: IR
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 07 Time (UTC): 1200

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like Nangka is feeling the effects of Chan-Hom's massive circulation. It needs to slow down so it can break free from the latter's influence imo

[cycloneye]

WDPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE WITH A 14-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 071616Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING THAT
IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TY NANGKA IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, AS THE TUTT CELL REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CYCLONE, LEADING TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 36, TY
NANGKA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS WHICH WILL BEGIN A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR
CAUSING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
MOVING POLEWARD. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AND A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE INCREASED VWS (30+ KNOTS)
AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING THE WEAKENING RATE. IN
ADDITION, SSTS AND OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19N. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF AND EGRR, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD, ABSENT OF ANY INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THIS TRACK IS CONSIDERED ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO SLOW IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING AND CONTINUED STABILITY OF
CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 080313
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 PM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...NANGKA MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 150.2E

ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 140 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY...AND MAY BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 15:38:21 N Lon : 149:32:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 957.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -40.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 116km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.1 degrees

[euro6208]

Spiral bands arriving

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 17 NM DIAMETER CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND MSI, WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLEAR EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TY
11W UNDERWENT A BRIEF PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT RESULTING FROM
THE PROXIMITY OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND HAMPERING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE WATER VAPOR
NOW INDICATES ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS RESUMED AND THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT (10 KNOTS), AND SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TY NANGKA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. AS THE POSITION OF
THE TUTT CELL BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE, IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VWS
THROUGH TAU 36 SHOULD ALLOW TY 11W TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK
NEAR 125 KNOTS. TY NANGKA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS
NEAR TAU 48, WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEFLECT POLEWARD. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE
INCREASED VWS (30+ KNOTS) AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING THE
WEAKENING RATE. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH
HWRF, EGRR AND ACES MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS VARYING DEGREES OF
RECURVATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO SLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AS THE MODELS ADJUST TO THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. DUE TO INCREASING SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAU
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND THEIR DEPICTION OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 080916
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST WED JUL 8 2015

...OUTER WINDS OF NANGKA NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAIPAN AND TINIAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS
OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TYPHOON WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN...AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 149.4E

ABOUT 245 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 15.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.4 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 130 MPH...MAKING NANGKA A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THIS INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CNMI. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO 140 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM LATER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 15:45:03 N Lon : 149:26:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 957.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -34.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 116km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.2 degrees

[cycloneye]

115kts.

[Yellow Evan]

2015JUL08 173000 6.2 945.0 119.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.36 -72.70 EYE 20 IR 54.6 16.54 -147.91 COMBO MTSAT2 19.7
2015JUL08 183000 6.3 941.8 122.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.24 -70.86 EYE 20 IR 54.6 16.62 -147.74 COMBO MTSAT2 19.7

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 081508
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NANGKA)

B. 08/1432Z

C. 16.4N

D. 148.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...W RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

Good morning Nangka...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 082120
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 AM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CNMI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF NANGKA
DEVIATES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 147.3E

ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME EYE
WOBBLING MAY OCCUR...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI.

NANGKA IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 140 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TODAY...THEN
BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FRIDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:51:57 N Lon : 147:00:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.9 degrees

[euro6208]

Dark grey has now completely wrapped around the eye. It's strengthening...

Impressive...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ83 PGUM 082358
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
958 AM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
CNMI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON TINIAN..SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN IN
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND THEIR
COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF NANGKA
WERE TO DEVIATE TO THE SOUTH.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES EAST.

ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN

NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 140 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES TYPHOON NANGKA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NANGKA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY 4
TYPHOON. TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY
AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
SAIPAN WATERS FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON AS NANGKA
PASSES TO THE NORTH.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON NANGKA SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED.
REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL DAMAGING WINDS SUBSIDE. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE SETTING IN NOW OVER THE ISLANDS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF NANGKA NEAR ALAMAGAN AROUND 5 PM
THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
AN EYE PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE OVER ALAMAGAN. IF THAT OCCURS...DO NOT
VENTURE OUT FAR FROM SHELTERS AS LIFE-THREATENING WINDS CAN
INCREASE RAPIDLY.

DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS NANGKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN AT ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...AND WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM
ON AGRIHAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 1 PM TO
8 PM ON ALAMAGAN. AT PAGAN...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
FROM ABOUT 4 PM TO 8 PM. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST UNTIL AROUND 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL THREE ISLANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
THREE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALAMAGAN COULD EXPERIENCE AN EYE PASSAGE
AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY AS NANGKA APPROACHES...AND WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SURF MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 25 FEET.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS TYPHOON
NANGKA PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

GUZ003-004-090500-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
958 AM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED ON TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
WILL BE DANGEROUS. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

&&

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
NOON TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER
THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET MAY BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF
15 TO 18 BY THIS AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS NANGKA MOVES AWAY.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND
EAST FACING SHORES THIS AFTERNOON AS NANGKA APPROACHES...THEN
SHIFTS TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES EARLY THIS EVENING.

...HEAVY RAINFALL...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS CAN
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

$$

PMZ153-154-090500-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
958 AM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF SAIPAN WHERE GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS NANGKA PASSES AND COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET IN FAR
NORTHERN SAIPAN WATERS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

CHAN/M AYDLETT

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC gave this a T6.0. IMO this is a 7.0.

[euro6208]

Big hit for Japan



NAVGEM is more easterly...



CMC unrealistically develops another TS within Nangka's circulation and that causes an erratic track...



EURO peak and landfall