WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

GFS stalls this just west of the Marianas before resuming a west northwest track. Brings a 909 mb monster east of Okinawa. Those islands won't like this...

[euro6208]

Good thing Alamagan is a volcanic uninhabited island...

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 090114
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA APPROACHING ALAMAGAN...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 146.9E

ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 17.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.9 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. ALTHOUGH SOME EYE
WOBBLING MAY OCCUR...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI.

NANGKA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 140 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TODAY...THEN
BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FRIDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing 140 I think. Any warming off the eye, and it's there.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 17:07:08 N Lon : 146:37:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 17:11:09 N Lon : 146:28:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[euro6208]

I can't imagine what it's like on Alamagan right now. Since it's a volcanic island, maybe the safest place would be inside it's very small crater if that even helps but then rains coming down and swallowing up you...It's frightening...

[euro6208]

Getting alot of gusty winds today easily in the 30's and Saipan which is closer to the storm recorded a gust of 39 mph recently with showers on and off over here...

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 090321

A. TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA)

B. 09/0232Z

C. 17.20N

D. 146.42E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR B (+1.0 ADJ
W) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/2159Z 16.82N 147.22E SSMS
08/2328Z 17.00N 146.83E MMHS
09/0014Z 16.95N 146.75E MMHS


MARTINEZ

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ27 KNES 090322
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NANGKA)

B. 09/0232Z

C. 17.2N

D. 146.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN BLACK FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.5 WITH
A WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE AND A WHITE RING YIELDING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF
+1.0 FOR A DT OF 6.5. MET IS 6.5 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. PT IS 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/2159Z 16.8N 147.2E SSMIS


...LIDDICK

[euro6208]

It's right over Alamagan what a direct hit.

[Yellow Evan]

One of the prettiest systems ever.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM NORTH OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE
STRUCTURE THAT IS SURROUNDING A SHARP 20-NM EYE. THIS SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 090446Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MOSTLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDING AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TY NANGKA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, ALLOWING
TY 11W TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU
12, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS TY NANGKA
MOVES INTO A MODERATE TO HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT AND REDUCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. NEAR TAU 48, TY NANGKA WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR CAUSED BY A FAST MOVING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 11W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN AS
A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THE STEERING STR ALLOWING IT TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE SYSTEM. THE BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HAMPER OUTFLOW AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE VWS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND COTC WHICH
CURVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72 WITH THE
WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER 72 HOURS AND THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Some renewed strengthening?

Eye warmed to 14.9 but is down to 14.1C. These are the highest numbers so far...

[euro6208]

894 and 887 mb!

[euro6208]

904 mb for Southern Japan

[euro6208]

914, 915, and 916 mb!

[euro6208]

Eye temperature shot up to 15.8C!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This should be 145 kts, really resembles Felix 2007 in the ATL with such a warm eye and red (medium cold) cloud tops surrounding the eye

[euro6208]

This should be 145 kts, really resembles Felix 2007 in the ATL with such a warm eye and red (medium cold) cloud tops surrounding the eye

I agree. It's hard to maintain an eye that long been counting over 24 hours now. It's gotten warmer and more symmetrical but intensity hasn't budge much.

Why can't we just have one recon for this?

They did send one for that weak TS near Hawaii recently...

Dvorak does poorly with small storms...