CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2015070312, , BEST, 0, 75N, 1175W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 34. 37. 37. 36. 36. 35.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 80% is 6.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

This one may have a good chance to make all the way to WPAC.

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1300 miles
south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 96, 2015070318, , BEST, 0, 75N, 1189W, 20, 1006, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 07/03/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 32 37 46 57 65 71 71 74 76 78
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 32 37 46 57 65 71 71 74 76 78
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 34 38 43 48 53 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 14 16 17 15 16 14 8 6 8 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 4 3 1 0 4 2 3 4 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 139 109 50 33 29 17 25 37 20 42 51 83 98
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.6 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 157 157 156 156 156 155 153 146 142 134
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 80 78 80 81 83 84 83 81 81 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 11 12 13 13 15 16 18 16 17 19 21
850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 46 43 41 39 39 50 50 46 44 58 67
200 MB DIV 163 162 143 120 120 101 103 75 94 91 88 68 64
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -6 -6 -9 -5 -3 -5 0
LAND (KM) 1959 2001 2047 2094 2144 2278 2385 2507 2629 2490 2185 1873 1544
LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.7 122.6 124.5 126.5 128.7 131.1 133.6 136.1 138.6 141.2
STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 20 34 48 37 17 12 9 27 16 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 15. 17. 19. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 26. 37. 45. 51. 51. 54. 56. 58.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Those in Hawaii may have to watch for future Dolores in a week.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like track is shifting north.

These early runs now are reminded me of the runs before Iselle that kept it south at the very begging.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered showers more than
1300 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the
system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

Looks like track is shifting north.

These early runs now are reminded me of the runs before Iselle that kept it south at the very begging.

Yeah it's tricky. I wonder how intensity will influence the track.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like track is shifting north.

These early runs now are reminded me of the runs before Iselle that kept it south at the very begging.

Yeah it's tricky. I wonder how intensity will influence the track.

Too soon to say IMO.

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2015070400, , BEST, 0, 60N, 1205W, 20, 1005, LO

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 42 46 48 50 51 53 53
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 42 46 48 50 51 53 53
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 18 21 24 22 27 25 22 21 16 12 13 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 3 4 4 5 5 4 0 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 67 50 37 32 24 28 27 26 32 32 36 33 18
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 156 156 155 156 158 156 154 150 148 140
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -52.0 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 80 80 84 81 85 85 84 83 82 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 35 33 33 35 41 53 57 46 50 51 64
200 MB DIV 183 171 136 110 105 101 100 92 99 85 93 72 66
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -9 -10 -5 -2 -5 -2
LAND (KM) 2191 2224 2260 2298 2338 2447 2525 2620 2723 2473 2164 1860 1558
LAT (DEG N) 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.1
LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.5 125.2 127.0 129.1 131.5 134.2 136.8 139.3 141.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 14 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 9 9 15 33 50 52 31 17 13 9 33 31 14

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 33.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS and Euro runs show a TS skirting the big island. Looks like the mountainous terrain is giving them trouble resolving it as it nears the big island.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2015070412, , BEST, 0, 61N, 1232W, 20, 1005, LO

[Yellow Evan]

24 hours and it's go time.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 32 42 51 62 68 74 77 78 75
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 32 42 51 62 68 74 77 78 75
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 33 39 45 52 57 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 24 27 25 20 21 14 14 10 8 4 6 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -4 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -7
SHEAR DIR 50 45 36 26 29 21 31 40 39 82 190 207 239
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 155 155 155 156 155 152 144 138 131 126
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 83 83 83 84 85 85 80 78 77 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 13 14 17 18 20 22 24 24
850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 37 44 48 53 59 75 80 71 68 75 70
200 MB DIV 118 106 123 124 130 158 115 100 88 110 91 74 50
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -7 -8 -4 0 2 2 2
LAND (KM) 2345 2379 2415 2451 2489 2528 2578 2645 2490 2167 1837 1475 1121
LAT (DEG N) 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 7.2 8.1 9.3 10.6 12.2 13.8 15.3 16.7
LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.9 124.5 125.2 125.9 127.3 129.1 131.2 133.5 136.0 138.6 141.6 144.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 48 56 57 52 46 29 17 14 11 23 2 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 11. 9. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 6. 11. 12. 16. 19. 22. 21.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 22. 31. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 55.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

Trend so far continue to be north and albeit stronger.

Euro has something like a possible cane' strong TS landfall near Maui/Oahu.

GFDL has a strong cane' and completely misses Hawaii to the north.

HWRF doesn't make much out of it keeps it south.

GFS has a weak TS with a head on strike on the Big Island

So if it develops quickly, it'll likely miss the Islands all together. Develops and becomes strong; misses the Islands as well to the north. Develops steadily; greater risk to the islands.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.