CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Organizations making strange calls is not a rare thing outside the jurisdiction of the NHC. Just look at Linfa--it has likely been a typhoon for the better part of the past 36 hours, yet JTWC just now upgraded it. But anyways, that's a conversation for a different thread.

We all know Four-E is a minimal tropical storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Organizations making strange calls is not a rare thing outside the jurisdiction of the NHC. Just look at Linfa--it has likely been a typhoon for the better part of the past 36 hours, yet JTWC just now upgraded it. But anyways, that's a conversation for a different thread.

We all know Four-E is a minimal tropical storm.

That's no excuse IMO.

It's kinda sad that we see such (IMO) questionable calls though.

[Kingarabian]

It's interesting how when recon finds new developments regarding Atlantic storms, the NHC quickly issues new advisories/updates.

Yet the CPHC similar to last year would rather side with Dvorak over raw data.

The JTWC is something else.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 PM HST WED JUL 08 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
ITS VICINITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED IN
DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH LIES JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES. SINCE THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A BIT MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH
OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM SHIPS WAS 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES AT LEAST 20 KT OF SOUTHWEST SHEAR. MOST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM
SUCCUMBS TO THE IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
BACK TO A DEPRESSION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATED BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 18.2N 144.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.1N 146.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.3N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.5N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.3N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 23.5N 158.4W 20 KT 25 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 24.7N 163.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

It's interesting how when recon finds new developments regarding Atlantic storms, the NHC quickly issues new advisories/updates.

Yet the CPHC similar to last year would rather side with Dvorak over raw data.

The JTWC is something else.

NHC is smart when it comes to recon.

CPHC is too conservative to use Recon and seems to like to factor in Dvorak as well, which can be off for sub-2.0 systems.

JTWC has no recon, and cling to Dvorak which is IMO fine, but they own dvorak estimates bring the average down so much since they don't know how to do it.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon still supports TS status.

[talkon]

TS Ela.

04E ELA 150709 0600 19.0N 144.7W EPAC 35 1003

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 PM HST WED JUL 08 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
HAS SHUNTED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THE ON-BOARD SFMR INSTRUMENT WAS EXPERIENCING
DATA QUALITY ISSUES...REDUCTION OF FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTS
UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10 KT...WITH ELA BEING STEERED
BY THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A PERSISTENT
CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. UW-CIMSS INDICATES NEARLY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM...AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO. AS SUCH...ELA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STORM
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE DISSIPATION
OCCURS. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND LIES
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.3N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.6N 146.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.8N 148.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 22.9N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.5N 153.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 24.4N 158.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST THU JUL 09 2015

A 1052Z VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND IMAGE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN HELPING TO
LOCATE THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF ELA THIS MORNING. LATEST
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO/SAB/JTWC INDICATE
THAT ELA IS A WEAK SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.0 TO 1.5. MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PULSING
DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN WHEN U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
THEREFORE...ELA IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11 KT...WITH ELA BEING STEERED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE
IS AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AS BEING AS
HIGH AS 25 KT BY UW-CIMSS. EVEN GREATER SHEAR VALUES LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE INCREASING SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DEMISE OF
THE SYSTEM...WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING DISSIPATION BY DAY 2.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW THROUGH DAY 3 BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
WESTWARD-MOVING OPEN WAVE ON DAY 4. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT ELA WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW TO BEGIN
CARRYING IT WESTWARD. ELA IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT IN
THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...TO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...AND THE FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN DECREASED AFTER 36
HOURS...FOLLOWING TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE TVCX CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.2N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 147.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 22.5N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 23.4N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 23.8N 153.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 24.0N 158.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

3. REMARK: MISSIONS SCHEDULED ON TROPICAL STORM ELA FOR
09/1800Z AND 10/0600Z CANCELED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 09/0945Z.

Why do agencies do this? It's within their best interest to get as much recon as possible.

[Alyono]

3. REMARK: MISSIONS SCHEDULED ON TROPICAL STORM ELA FOR
09/1800Z AND 10/0600Z CANCELED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 09/0945Z.

Why do agencies do this? It's within their best interest to get as much recon as possible.

limited number of flight hours per year

[Yellow Evan]

3. REMARK: MISSIONS SCHEDULED ON TROPICAL STORM ELA FOR
09/1800Z AND 10/0600Z CANCELED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 09/0945Z.

Why do agencies do this? It's within their best interest to get as much recon as possible.

limited number of flight hours per year

How did 2005 AHS get so much recon? Did they get too much money?

I kinda feel if they've came all this way, they might as well fly at least 3-5 missions.

[wxman57]

Ela looks like a remnant low now. I expect a downgrade shortly (at least to a depression).

[Yellow Evan]

Ela looks like a remnant low now. I expect a downgrade shortly (at least to a depression).

As usual, the CPHC is late to both upgrade and downgrade.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 092039
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 AM HST THU JUL 09 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF ELA REMAINS
WELL EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LATEST
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO/SAB/JTWC INDICATE
THAT ELA IS A WEAK SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO A SYSTEM TO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. ELA IS BEING MAINTAINED AS
A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT
GENEROUS GIVEN IN CURRENT APPEARANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10 KT...WITH ELA BEING STEERED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER
LOW TO ITS WEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
UW-CIMSS SHEAR VALUES SHOW 36 KT WHILE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER
AT 16 KT. EVEN GREATER SHEAR VALUES LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ELA AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT ELA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS AROUND DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.5N 146.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.5N 147.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 22.5N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 23.2N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 23.5N 153.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.5N 158.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 100230
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF ELA REMAINS
WELL EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LATEST
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND JTWC INDICATE
THAT ELA IS A WEAK SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5 FROM HFO TO A SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BY JTWC. ALSO A
RAPIDSCAT PASS AROUND 2322Z INDICATED ONLY 20 TO 30 KT NON RAIN
CONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS ELA
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10 KT...WITH ELA BEING STEERED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER
LOW TO ITS WEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND EMBEDDED
IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO MOST RELIABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
UW-CIMSS SHEAR VALUES SHOW 30 KT WHILE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER
AT 17 KT. EVEN GREATER SHEAR VALUES LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ELA AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO A POST-TROP/REMNT LOW IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AROUND DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.7N 147.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 22.7N 148.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 23.5N 150.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 23.9N 152.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 154.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 24.1N 159.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE