CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

06z GFS and 00z Euro have a depression clearing the islands. Confusing.

It has a nice anti cyclone situated over it to disperess the Hawaiian shear and I'd side with the intensity models of having a decent cane. From the looks of it, we could see a classification tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the global models have bogus development ahead of the system

[Yellow Evan]

06z GFS and 00z Euro have a depression clearing the islands. Confusing.

It has a nice anti cyclone situated over it to disperess the Hawaiian shear and I'd side with the intensity models of having a decent cane. From the looks of it, we could see a classification tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the global models have bogus development ahead of the system

What's stopping development? SHIPS is making this a hurricane, and these models are usually too low in the EPAC?

[Alyono]

06z GFS and 00z Euro have a depression clearing the islands. Confusing.

It has a nice anti cyclone situated over it to disperess the Hawaiian shear and I'd side with the intensity models of having a decent cane. From the looks of it, we could see a classification tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the global models have bogus development ahead of the system

What's stopping development? SHIPS is making this a hurricane, and these models are usually too low in the EPAC?

reread my post. 95E is the bogus development

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS and 00z Euro have a depression clearing the islands. Confusing.

It has a nice anti cyclone situated over it to disperess the Hawaiian shear and I'd side with the intensity models of having a decent cane. From the looks of it, we could see a classification tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the global models have bogus development ahead of the system

Bogus development in terms of intensity or something else? Right now it looks close to a TD and both the GFS and Euro have a depression clearing the islands to the north.

Edit: Now I understand. How does the artifical development of 95e affect the track?

[Yellow Evan]

reread my post. 95E is the bogus development

Oh, gotcha. Makes sense then. Global models still sometimes overdue crap in the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Gonzo for Wednesday and a fix also on that day.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -NOAA 49-
A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0196E SURV
C. 07/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX A DEVELOPING CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEM AT
08/1800Z NEAR 17.0N 143.2W.
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 09/0000Z.

[Alyono]

the bogus development of 95E is sending this too far north

[Yellow Evan]

the bogus development of 95E is sending this too far north

Happened during Iselle as well for a while.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure system located about 1600 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce a large area of
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Alyono]

starting to organize. However, I notice that the models are really backing off on developing this. Not sure why as the environment looks favorable

[Kingarabian]

Just needs more convection near the center. Outflow looks established.

[Kingarabian]

starting to organize. However, I notice that the models are really backing off on developing this. Not sure why as the environment looks favorable

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the large area of low
pressure located about 1450 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical cyclone will likely form over the next day or two while
the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

starting to organize. However, I notice that the models are really backing off on developing this. Not sure why as the environment looks favorable

Models have low bias in this basin.

[Kingarabian]

starting to organize. However, I notice that the models are really backing off on developing this. Not sure why as the environment looks favorable

Models have low bias in this basin.

Just 2 days ago, GFS was actually showing a Cat.2 landfall and the Euro had a strong TS/minimal hurricane landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC EP, 96, 2015070700, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1342W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

[Yellow Evan]

starting to organize. However, I notice that the models are really backing off on developing this. Not sure why as the environment looks favorable

Models have low bias in this basin.

Just 2 days ago, GFS was actually showing a Cat.2 landfall and the Euro had a strong TS/minimal hurricane landfall.

Generally, forecasts go down after 2 days of no development.

[Kingarabian]

Beginning stages of a CDO?

[hawaiigirl]

when is this expected to reach Oahu? I have a wedding on Wednesday

[Alyono]

looks very close to TD status. Won't affect the Wednesday wedding