Could be a problem for Iwo-to...
WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (HALOLA)
WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH AN
EXPANDING MOISTURE FIELD WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT CAN BE EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LINES PULLING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 190545Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WITH DEFINED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SUPPORTED BY A PGTW
AND RJTD SATELLITE FIX. ALTHOUGH TD 01C HAS SHOWED AN IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON A 190007Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
REDUCED PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS THE TUTT CELL HAS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSION OF THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE CURRENT
CONVECTION. LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
TD 01C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DOMINANT STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE
TUTT CELL REDUCES, ALLOWING INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND REDUCING
THE VWS. BEYOND TAU 24, TD HALOLA IS FORECAST TO GAIN A STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ENCOUNTER REDUCED VWS, CONTINUING
THE INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48; HOWEVER, THE SPREAD AT TAU 72 HAS INCREASED TO 175NM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO GAIN A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
STEERING STR; FURTHERING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TD HALOLA WILL
ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO
THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE RE-CURVE.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE
CURRENT POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE RE-
CURVE PHASE. IN ADDITION, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE NEAR TERM
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE RECENT STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
CAUSED BY THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN TD HALOLA AND THE TUTT
CELL.//
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