WPAC: HALOLA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Convection is weakening. Good ASCAT hit around 12Z did indicate 45kts. Could be 45-50 kts, but probably not 60kts. Dvorak closer to 3.0 than 3.5.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB/JTWC are both at T3.5. CIMSS CI is 3.3. 50 knts is good, based on the ASCAT.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA)
WARNING NR 43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
CORE OF THE CYCLONE INTO A WELL-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS A
RADIALLY EXPANDING MOISTURE FIELD WITH AN ENHANCED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. A 201710Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN ACCELERATED BY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 01C IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW
VWS, AND SSTS ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL REACH 20 TO
25 KNOTS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO DECREASE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TS
HALOLA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS,
DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A BUILDING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST, AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO VARYING DEGREES IN THE
TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. THIS FORECAST AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS
TO THE EXTENT OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, TS HALOLA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTH OF JAPAN
DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 40 DEGREES
LATITUDE.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Now a Typhoon per JMA.

TY 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 21 July 2015
<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25'(22.4°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E141°55'(141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E139°40'(139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°30'(24.5°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40'(25.7°)
E133°25'(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

[Yellow Evan]

Looks around a T4.5 via Dvorak.

JTWC's estimates are way too low as usual.

[Yellow Evan]

Why no eye scene?

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 22:31:21 N Lon : 143:25:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 989.8mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -57.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ28 KNES 210322
TCSWNP

A. 01C (HALOLA)

B. 21/0232Z

C. 22.4N

D. 143.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD FILLED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
VISIBLE EYE TECHNIQUE GIVES A DT OF 4.0 BASED ON .7 DEGREES EMBEDDED
DISTANCE. MET IS 3.5 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO DT NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2015 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 22:37:55 N Lon : 143:03:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 989.8mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.1 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 221510

A. TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA)

B. 22/1432Z

C. 23.92N

D. 137.29E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AGREES WITH
DT YIELDING A 5.0. WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0955Z 23.80N 138.03E SSMS
22/1156Z 23.93N 137.75E MMHS


LEMBKE

[wxman57]

12Z GFS & Euro both shifted west of Japan (by a good bit) and turn Halola more sharply northward into S. Korea Sunday.

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 24:16:24 N Lon : 135:59:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 989.0mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.7 4.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -51.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Looks around 75-80 knots IMO.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 53//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS IN ENHANCED INFRARED. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WELL
DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING, ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE CORE
OF THE CYCLONE. A 230626Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
BROADENING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CORE CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A PGTW AND RJTD
SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON A
CURRENT INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING SOME OF THE
EFFECTS. TY 01C CONTINUES TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED
BASED ON A 230118Z ASCAT PASS.
B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU
36. TY 01C HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PRIOR TO ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. AT THIS TIME VWS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE 25 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY. THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION TO DECREASING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 36, TY HALOLA WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH (30-40 KNOT) VWS AND SSTS
BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN,
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF THE STEERING STR, LEADING TO A WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 36. THIS CAUSES CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE AND LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

06Z GFS strengthens it a bit more to 949 mb before making a direct hit or close call for Okinawa and recurves to Korea...

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Cooler waters are already affecting it.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks face value around 70 knots.

[galaxy401]

^JTWC agrees with you.

[euro6208]

eye on radar...