CPAC: IUNE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

area south of Hawaii. Looking fairly well organized

[Yellow Evan]

2. Scattered thunderstorms persist around a surface low located about 625 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Anticipating unfavorable environmental conditions for significant development of this system during the next two days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Why ins't this a TD?

[Yellow Evan]

My convo with Eric Blake over this:

@Yellow_Evan 40m40 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 what is 91C and 92C missing for TD status? I know it's not your basin, just wondering.
0 retweets 0 favorites
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 39m39 minutes ago

@Yellow_Evan I am not sure. Maybe @bodyboarder22 could explain more.

[Yellow Evan]

2. Showers and thunderstorms located about 620 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii are associated with a small area of low pressure. Some signs of low-level organization have been observed. Upper level winds are conducive for additional slow development over the next 48 hours.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

2. Showers and thunderstorms located about 620 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii are associated with a persistent area of low pressure. Signs of low-level organization have been observed and environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development into tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 70 percent.

[jaguarjace]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022015
1100 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015

PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FAR
SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS PROMPTED THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS SUPPORTED BY
A 2.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HFO...WHILE SAB AND JTWC GAVE
1.5.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION CONTAIN A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MIXED SIGNALS FROM
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE SHIPS INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION TO A
HURRICANE BY DAY 5...THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BY DAY 3. THE REMNANT LOW TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THESE
MODELS...THEREBY SKEWING THE NORMALLY RELIABLE TRACK CONSENSUS
MODELS THAT RELY HEAVILY ON THESE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES THE
DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY DAY 5. THEREFORE...A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN NOT FORECAST...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWEST EARLY ON...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS...STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 10.9N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 11.4N 155.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 12.0N 156.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 13.0N 158.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 13.5N 159.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 13.1N 162.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 13.0N 166.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 13.0N 169.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022015
500 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE
THE INITIAL ADVISORY...BUT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS A FAIRLY SMALL
CIRCULATION...WHICH HISTORICALLY LEADS TO UNDERESTIMATION OF
INTENSITY BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. HAVING SAID THAT...LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO/SAB/JTWC RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0...
AND SUPPORT 30 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 310/05 KT...AS THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SMALLER HIGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL INDUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY...BUT AS THE
DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...AN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED.

THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO LGEM AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THIS IS IN CONTRADICTION WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...
WHICH DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER ABOUT 3 DAYS...WITH THE WEAKENING
SYSTEM TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE FACT THESE
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM MAY BE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HWRF ALSO INDICATES LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE APPARENT
CONTRADICTORY SIGNALS FROM THE GUIDANCE...AND THE SENSITIVE NATURE
OF SMALL CYCLONES TO SUBTLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES...THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTAINS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 11.4N 155.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 12.1N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 13.0N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 13.8N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 13.6N 160.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 13.6N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 14.0N 168.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 14.0N 172.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO CP022015 07/10/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 51 53
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 51 53
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 42 46 49 52 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 13 9 6 6 9 8 4 12 18 20 18 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 -8 -8 -7 -4
SHEAR DIR 84 108 105 104 81 89 83 70 11 23 22 30 11
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 136 136 137 139 141 143 145 144 143
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10
700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 66 61 57 53 52 49 49 47 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 26 20 10 13 16 17 27 34 28 27 29
200 MB DIV 3 3 14 27 20 9 -25 -28 -38 -8 -24 -9 -17
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 793 750 711 659 619 663 807 939 1013 1112 1271 1421 1585
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 13.9 13.4 13.4 13.9 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 154.8 155.4 155.9 156.7 157.4 159.0 160.6 162.4 164.3 166.3 168.3 170.3 172.3
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 15 29 18 15 9 28 36 31 44 34

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/10/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022015
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CENTER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS MORNING.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...JTWC...AND SAB ALL
CAME IN AT 1.5...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SMALL...WHICH
HISTORICALLY LEADS TO UNDERESTIMATION OF INTENSITY BY THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 325/07 KT. TWO-C REMAINS IN A COMPLEX
AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE SYSTEM IS
STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA...WHICH IS
CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN A STRONG HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TWO-C LIES NEAR A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF TWO-C. ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ON DAY TWO AND BEYOND...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF TWO-C. IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN
ORDER TO BE CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM THE
GFDL MODEL...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...LIKELY
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF TWO-C. THIS IS LEADING TO A LARGER THAN
NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 12.1N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 155.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 13.8N 157.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 14.3N 158.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 14.4N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 14.2N 164.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 14.0N 168.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 13.9N 172.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

Probs near TS status, but I don't think the CPHC will upgrade until T2.5 or ASCAT.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 11:45:04 N Lon : 155:36:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1004.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.3

Center Temp : -60.1C Cloud Region Temp : -50.9C

[Yellow Evan]

10/2330 UTC 12.5N 155.1W T2.0/2.0 02C -- Central Pacifi

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO CP022015 07/11/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 43 45 47 50 52
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 39 43 45 47 50 52
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 40 42 46 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 10 8 6 5 14 16 18 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 0 -2 -6 -6 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 105 109 113 96 92 109 81 3 16 25 43 39 26
SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 135 135 136 139 142 144 144 143 143
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 62 59 54 50 50 49 48 47 47 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 24 15 14 29 25 32 35 30 24 26 26
200 MB DIV -1 10 18 15 17 -9 -36 -34 -6 -16 -11 -10 11
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 2 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 712 650 595 568 556 629 753 901 1021 1173 1309 1483 1674
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 155.2 155.8 156.4 157.2 157.9 159.5 161.2 163.2 165.3 167.3 169.1 171.2 173.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 8 10 17 31 32 10 8 16 37 29 32 48 23

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022015
500 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO-C HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB CAME IN AT 2.0...WHILE JTWC
REPORTED A 1.5. A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS AT 2011 UTC REVEALED A
SMALL CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND GIVEN NO SIGN
OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 10 TO 15
KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 315/08 KT. TWO-C REMAINS IN A COMPLEX
AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE SYSTEM IS
STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA...WHICH IS
CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN A STRONG HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TWO-C LIES NEAR A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF TWO-C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RUNS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMIC AND CONSENSUS MODEL ENVELOPE THROUGH 48
HOURS AND IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER...WHEN
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF TWO-C...IMPARTING MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT. IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION WAS AGAIN SLOWED IN ORDER TO BE CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS...WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE SMALL SIZE
OF TWO-C IS LIKELY LEADING TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE
TO SENSITIVITY OF THE SMALL CYCLONE TO EVEN THE MODEST WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS...INCLUDING THE HWRF...ARE FORECASTING NO
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY THE GFDL HINTING ONLY AT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS LEADING TO
LARGER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 12.8N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.6N 156.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.3N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 159.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 14.3N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 14.4N 165.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 14.4N 169.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 14.4N 173.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 12:42:04 N Lon : 155:24:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1004.6mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.5

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO CP022015 07/11/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 46 48 51 55 57
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 46 48 51 55 57
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 37 41 45 50 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 10 10 9 9 8 12 16 13 10 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 0 2 -3 -4 0 -3 -8 -7 -3 -8
SHEAR DIR 110 105 109 98 112 99 109 64 50 48 71 50 47
SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 135 135 135 138 140 142 145 144 144 144
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11
700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 61 58 54 51 51 50 47 46 47 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 22 23 31 28 29 34 36 30 29 31 26
200 MB DIV 5 17 22 31 26 -25 -25 -32 -12 -5 -8 -6 6
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 3 1 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 633 584 549 561 586 715 866 954 1055 1208 1403 1596 1783
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.5 157.2 158.0 158.8 160.6 162.4 164.3 166.1 168.2 170.5 172.7 174.8
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 10 18 32 32 17 8 10 30 33 25 47 25 31

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 25. 27.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022015
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2015

IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...LLCC...OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FROM
0522Z SHOWED THE EXPOSED LLCC SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT
ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 08 KT FROM 115
DEGREES BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. AS A RESULT OF THIS
SHEAR...MOST OF THE FIX AGENCIES APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM HFO WAS 2.5...SAB WAS 2.0...AND JTWC WAS 1.5. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR OF TWO-C IS 315/08 KT. TWO-C REMAINS IN A
COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE NEAR SURFACE STEERING OF TWO-C APPEARS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA...WHICH IS CAUSING A
WEAKNESS IN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII.
TWO-C IS ALSO NEAR A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF
KAUAI. THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF TWO-C. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CLOSELY WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. THIS FORECAST TRACK AGAIN
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMIC AND CONSENSUS MODEL
ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE
THEREAFTER...WHEN THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF TWO-C IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF TWO-C...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION OF TWO-C COMPARED WITH THE
CONSENSUS. THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF TWO-C IS LIKELY LEADING TO A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DUE TO SENSITIVITY OF THE
SMALL SYSTEM TO EVEN THE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 13.5N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.2N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 158.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 14.6N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 14.6N 162.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 14.5N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 14.5N 170.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 14.5N 175.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO CP022015 07/11/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 42 46 50 54 57 60
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 42 46 50 54 57 60
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 39 44 49 55 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 9 5 5 7 13 10 10 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 0 -2 -6 0 2 -5 -7 -6 -4 -5
SHEAR DIR 110 111 100 115 124 112 134 70 46 57 62 50 18
SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 136 139 142 145 145 144 145 145
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 60 57 52 52 52 49 46 47 46 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 21 30 30 27 31 39 34 27 35 34 34
200 MB DIV 10 21 26 28 11 -19 -30 -13 -1 10 2 3 -3
700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 600 582 576 611 651 792 915 1021 1179 1350 1540 1748 1959
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3
LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.4 158.1 158.9 159.7 161.5 163.3 165.3 167.5 169.7 172.0 174.3 176.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 25 34 30 17 10 8 18 41 31 36 32 22 70

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022015 TWO 07/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)