EPAC: ENRIQUE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

While Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern
became a little better organized. It now consists of a small central
dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band.
The upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the
western semicircle. A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are
at least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have
increased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt.

In about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler
waters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast
to increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should
become a remnant low in 3 days or sooner.

Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8
kt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge.
Global models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents
will collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of
Dolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation.
This NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the
ECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Enrique has not changed much during the last several hours. The
cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast and rain
bands over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. Enrique is
headed for cooler water, and it should have crossed the 26 C
isotherm by Wednesday morning. These cool waters combined with an
increasingly more stable air mass and southwesterly shear should
cause steady weakening. Enrique will likely become a remnant low
in 2 to 3 days. The intensity models are in good agreement, and
this forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.

The storm continues moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days while
the system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and then drift southward
when the steering currents collapse as Hurricane Dolores approaches
from the east. This track forecast is similar to the previous one
and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on an ASCAT
pass from earlier today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 18.7N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.2N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.8N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 20.4N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 20.9N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.0N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 20.5N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z 20.2N 136.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxman57]

Bones needs the practice...

[cycloneye]

They say not yet.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease,
data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space
Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds
near 1100 UTC. Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier
air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's
dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return,
Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours
and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should
continue for another 24 hours or so. After that, steering currents
weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down. Most of
the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward,
then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the
previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[wxman57]

ASCAT from 1030Z indicates 25-30kts. I see no evidence that the convectionless swirl of low clouds has 35kt winds.

[cycloneye]

...ENRIQUE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 135.9W
ABOUT 1680 MI...2700 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

Enrique has become a swirl of low- and mid-level clouds with
isolated thunderstorm activity as the center moves over sea surface
temperatures of about 25C. The initial intensity is decreased to
30 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The forecast track keeps the cyclone over cool waters,
and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours
and dissipate completely between 96-120 hours.

A jog to the north has occurred since the last advisory, and the
initial motion is now 300/7. A west-northwestward motion should
continue for another 12 hours or so. After that, steering currents
weaken, and the cyclone or its remnants should slow down as it
turns westward and southward. The global models agree that the
remnants of Enrique will be slow moving during the 48-96 hour
period, although there are differences in the details of the tracks.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in showing
a southward turn after 36 hours, followed by little motion from
48-96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

Enrique is a well-defined vortex, mainly consisting of low-level
stratocumulus clouds. Although a small thunderstorm cluster has
developed north of the cyclone's center in the last couple of hours,
overall Enrique has been devoid of any significant deep convection
near the center for about 12 hours. Dvorak current intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped to a 1.5, or 25 kt. A 2024Z
RapidScat pass suggested peak surface winds in Enrique of 40 kt,
but these winds are likely rain-inflated and may not be reliable.
Based on the tight swirl remaining in the low cloud field, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.

As the cyclone should remain over cool 24-25 degree C water and
embedded within dry stable air, it is anticipated that Enrique will
soon become a remnant low. Due to the large size of the vortex,
however, it will likely take four to five days for Enrique's remnant
low to spin down and dissipate, as indicated by the global models.

Enrique is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt due to the steering
induced by a surface high to its north. As Hurricane Dolores
approaches from the southeast, the low-level steering near Enrique
will collapse in a day or so. This should allow Enrique to meander
until dissipation occurs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.5N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 20.7N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 20.3N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 20.0N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 19.9N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Extratropical94]

"Reclassified as a minimal TS"

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not
weakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were
still tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the
cyclone. The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt,
resulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm.
Several hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over
the northern portion of the circulation. Recently, however that
convection is dissipating. Enrique should be traversing waters
cooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air. Therefore,
weakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. This is also
consistent with the SHIPS guidance.

The center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the
initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Over the next few days,
Enrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general
counterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level
cyclonic gyre. The official track forecast is a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171432
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Enrique has changed little in organization over the past several
hours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north
of the center. There is no recent scatterometer data from the
central core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity
from the previous advisory. The cyclone should decay over sea
surface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so. It should be noted
that while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after
96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than
120 hours.

The initial motion is now 270/3. The track guidance suggests that
Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during
the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The
new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Recently received ASCAT data shows that Enrique has weakened to a
tropical depression with winds of 30 kt. There is currently no deep
convection associated with the cyclone, although several bands of
low-topped showers are present. Unless there is a significant
increase in convection, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant
low pressure area in 24 hours or less. After that, the dynamical
guidance suggests that the remnant low should persist for several
more days before dissipating.

The initial motion is 270/2. The track guidance indicates that
Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during
the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The
new track forecast is again similar to the previous forecast and is
near the center of the track guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.5N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 20.3N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 20.2N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about
12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is
occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than
75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated
as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time.
The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions
should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so
gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected
over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for
dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
global models.

The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC
model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique
should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next
48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart