EPAC: ENRIQUE - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

EP, 97, 2015071000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1180W, 20, 1008, DB

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a
broad low pressure area centered about 1150 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California Sur have increased over the last
24 hours. Continued development is anticipated through the weekend,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by early
next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 39 52 64 75 80 81 82 83 84
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 39 52 64 75 80 81 82 83 84
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 44 55 64 70 73 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 13 9 10 8 3 4 8 9 7 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 8 3 0 -6 -6 -7 -4 -4 -2 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 52 39 50 47 54 31 49 100 141 146 146 138 125
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 154 152 151 146 144 142 140 134 128
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 75 74 74 73 71 67 62 58 55 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 23
850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 35 51 55 66 84 103 98 95 90 94 94
200 MB DIV 132 110 98 109 117 91 113 131 117 85 73 46 33
700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -2 0 1 0 1 1 1
LAND (KM) 1667 1683 1702 1713 1726 1757 1771 1786 1817 1875 1920 1988 2069
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.3
LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.7 121.8 123.0 124.3 125.7 127.2 128.5 129.7 130.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 6 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 52 52 45 37 29 22 16 14 14 33 24 15 12

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 19. 32. 44. 55. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a
broad low pressure area centered about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur have increased over the last
24 hours. Continued development is anticipated through the weekend,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by early
next week while it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Concentrated showers and thunderstorms associated with a low
pressure area centered about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California Sur have become better organized during the
last 24 hours. Further development is expected, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend while the low moves
generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 52 64 76 82 85 86 89 89 89
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 52 64 76 82 85 86 89 89 89
V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 46 55 65 76 84 89 89 86 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 21 19 14 15 13 7 9 6 10 6 8 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -2 -4 -8 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 53 52 60 50 44 45 60 129 109 94 108 108 70
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 153 152 151 149 146 143 140 134 123
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5
700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 68 71 71 68 65 65 63 65 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 16 19 19 21 21 22 24 26
850 MB ENV VOR 78 90 100 110 112 126 145 127 130 124 122 112 90
200 MB DIV 127 93 103 122 107 130 152 158 72 71 58 35 47
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 2008 2018 2027 2033 2040 2047 2026 2011 1997 1986 1989 2012 2035
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.0 15.5 16.1 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.7 124.2 124.6 124.9 125.6 126.2 127.0 127.7 128.4 129.0 129.9 131.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 34 36 40 41 42 44 46 50 41 31 24 16 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 16. 19. 20. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 34. 46. 52. 55. 56. 59. 59. 59.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur has become better defined
since yesterday. Further development is expected, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend while the low moves
generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 45 45 43 40 38 35 34
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 45 45 43 40 38 35 34
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 39 41 40 38 34 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 23 21 16 14 10 13 17 16 19 21 20 23 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 0 -3 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 59 74 81 75 91 142 171 157 147 159 176 170 169
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.3 25.5 25.2 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 151 148 143 135 126 117 114 115
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 67 64 58 52 49 52 49 47 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 100 110 112 117 123 159 166 156 122 99 94 122 124
200 MB DIV 100 85 96 106 102 109 123 84 7 19 9 23 14
700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 -4 -1
LAND (KM) 2128 2100 2072 2042 2013 2010 2054 2112 2207 2294 2160 1984 1813
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 39 41 42 38 34 40 31 24 14 9 4 1 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 29. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 20. 18. 15. 13. 10. 9.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions appear to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form over the weekend while the low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/11/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 38 41 43 43 42 42 41 41
V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 38 41 43 43 42 42 41 41
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 24 23 23 23 22 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 11 8 7 13 8 13 11 14 11 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -3 -6 0 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 -5
SHEAR DIR 56 51 48 30 11 232 209 151 157 189 189 183 173
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.4 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 150 149 142 137 136 134 130 122 115 112
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 71 72 75 74 76 73 69 64 61 57 54 56 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 71 71 75 86 85 69 74 77 94 101 102
200 MB DIV 83 90 94 114 134 119 103 52 34 22 10 7 1
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 1852 1822 1788 1731 1676 1621 1683 1755 1811 1881 1973 2061 2137
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 15 12 16 7 14 15 8 4 2 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 22. 21. 21.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

A well-defined area of low pressure located about 1200 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 mph. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is showing signs of organization, and conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of a tropical depression
during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is moving north-northwestward at
about 10 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization, and conditions are expected to be conducive
for the development of a tropical depression during tonight
or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/11/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 44 54 60 63 60 57 55 54 52
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 44 54 60 63 60 57 55 54 52
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 37 42 47 50 51 51 48 44 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 4 4 7 7 11 11 11 10 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -5 -6 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 37 27 33 48 156 153 131 155 180 188 189 167 140
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 146 145 142 135 130 123 114 110 108
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 73 71 67 60 56 55 53 53 52 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 13 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 95 104 115 129 122 121 100 99 82 83 87 93 103
200 MB DIV 85 85 117 134 130 115 37 34 31 8 14 7 19
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
LAND (KM) 1957 1930 1905 1890 1877 1903 1944 1988 2044 2090 2156 2175 2048
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 7 5 5 6 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 28 22 19 17 16 29 23 14 11 8 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 29. 35. 38. 35. 32. 30. 29. 27.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/11/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[galaxy401]

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located a little
more than a 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California Sur has not become any better organized since yesterday.
However, environmental conditions remain conducive for a tropical
depression to form Sunday or Monday while the system moves toward
the west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

WTPN22 PHNC 111100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZJUL2015//
AMPN/A/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 123.1W TO 15.8N 125.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 123.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
122.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.6W, APPROXIMATELY 854 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS. MODEL
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM SHOWS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE REACHING 25 KTS OR GREATER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 96.5W//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

A large low pressure area located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing an extensive area
of cloudiness and shower activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
After that time, the system could encounter a more stable air mass
with development becoming less likely.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 2015071206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1246W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,

[Yellow Evan]

Sorry if I've been posting too many of these, but SHIPS/LGEM output went up this run.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/12/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 34 33 31 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 6 10 13 12 13 11 13 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -6 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 349 344 54 125 142 182 191 187 194 185 174 177 167
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 144 143 139 129 123 119 115 110 109 109
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 69 67 60 56 55 56 53 53 51 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 128 118 106 104 104 94 81 57 58 56 64 67 73
200 MB DIV 101 83 83 87 62 5 9 -17 0 -11 -4 9 2
700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 1817 1823 1832 1857 1884 1919 1975 2074 2183 2223 2096 1988 1894
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 21 32 18 8 8 6 5 1 0 0

[Kingarabian]

Uhh?

How is this not a tropical storm?

[Kingarabian]