EPAC: ENRIQUE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Sorry if I've been posting too many of these, but SHIPS/LGEM output went up this run.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/12/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 34 33 31 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 6 10 13 12 13 11 13 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -6 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 349 344 54 125 142 182 191 187 194 185 174 177 167
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 144 143 139 129 123 119 115 110 109 109
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 69 67 60 56 55 56 53 53 51 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 128 118 106 104 104 94 81 57 58 56 64 67 73
200 MB DIV 101 83 83 87 62 5 9 -17 0 -11 -4 9 2
700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 1817 1823 1832 1857 1884 1919 1975 2074 2183 2223 2096 1988 1894
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 21 32 18 8 8 6 5 1 0 0

So it's easier, what is the main ones to look at?

I like to only look at SST and shear as it is easier to understand...

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a low pressure area located about 1200 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur has become
better organized since yesterday. Overnight satellite wind data
also indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be
initiated on a tropical depression later today while this system
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Sorry if I've been posting too many of these, but SHIPS/LGEM output went up this run.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972015 07/12/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 42 45 46 44 42 41 42 40
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 34 33 31 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 6 10 13 12 13 11 13 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -6 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 349 344 54 125 142 182 191 187 194 185 174 177 167
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 144 143 139 129 123 119 115 110 109 109
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 69 67 60 56 55 56 53 53 51 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 128 118 106 104 104 94 81 57 58 56 64 67 73
200 MB DIV 101 83 83 87 62 5 9 -17 0 -11 -4 9 2
700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 1817 1823 1832 1857 1884 1919 1975 2074 2183 2223 2096 1988 1894
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 21 32 18 8 8 6 5 1 0 0

So it's easier, what is the main ones to look at?

I like to only look at SST and shear as it is easier to understand...

SST, shear, OHC, and 700-500 mb humidity (anything above 55-60ish is good).

[cycloneye]

TD SIX-E is born.No land will be threatened.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located
well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become
better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around
the western semicircle of the system. Overnight scatterometer data
and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the
circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore
advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of
the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak
classification of 2.0.

The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low
shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more
stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement
with the SHIPS guidance. The cyclone is expected to move over
cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. The depression is
forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north
during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone should
maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track. Later in
the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should
weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from
the west. This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed
to decrease. Although the track guidance is in general agreement
with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the
depression will gain during the next couple of days. The NHC track
is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Glad they upped. Looked overdue.

While weak, this could be decently long lived. GFS keeps it around for 5-6 days and conditions for this aren't too bad. 0z ECMWF make this a hurricane. Dry air however may hurt its chances at developing a really good inner core.

[Yellow Evan]

I hate Dvorak Constraints like these. They were put in to place for the WPAC monsoonal systems where there is sometimes some lag in winds (though recent storms suggest otherwise). But doesn't work here. Hopefully NHC goes with DT of 2.5 here.

TXPZ22 KNES 121802
TCSENP

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 13.1N

D. 125.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS 5/10 FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE
UNDEFINED SINCE STORM WAS NOT BEING CLASSIFIED 24 HRS AGO. FT OF 2.0 IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE INCREASE IN FT 1.0 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...VELASCO

[Yellow Evan]

06, 201507121800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1320N, 12550W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, GR, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,


EP, 06, 2015071218, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1256W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 60, 40, 30, 1009, 300, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

Hi Enrique.

[Kingarabian]

OVerdue.

[Yellow Evan]

OVerdue.

SAB if I had to guess was holding us back.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The convective structure of the tropical cyclone has improved
somewhat today, with a band of deep convection wrapping around the
south and southwestern portions of the circulation. Although Dvorak
data T-numbers have increased to T2.5 from both agencies, a recent
ASCAT pass suggests that the system is still below tropical storm
strength. Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low
vertical wind shear should allow for strengthening during the next
couple of days. The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some
drier and more stable air to the north and northwest of the
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is in close agreement with the SHIPS guidance during
the first 48 hours. After that time, increasing southerly shear,
cooler waters, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause
weakening.

Visible satellite images indicate that the initial position of
the cyclone is a little south of the previous estimate. As a
result, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6. The
depression is expected to move on a general west-northwest to
northwest heading during the next several days while it remains to
the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. Near the end of the forecast
period, the global models continue to show weakening of the steering
flow over the far eastern Pacific as the large circulation of
Dolores approaches from the east. This is likely to cause
the cyclone's forward speed to decrease. The track guidance remains
in agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is close to the
GFS ensemble mean, and just south of the model consensus. The new
NHC track is a little south of the previous advisory due to the more
southward initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 13.6N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

13/0000 UTC 14.0N 126.0W T2.5/2.5 06E -- East Pacific

FT and CI values now up to the Data-T values.

[Yellow Evan]

2015071300, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1259W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,


Wow.

[Hurricane Jed]

BT has already been wrong once today. Could always be wrong again.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
last several hours. Deep convection remains mainly confined to a
curved band to the south of the center and in an area over the
northeastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical
storm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt
based on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass
earlier today.

The depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a
longer term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt. A slightly
faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted
during the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a
narrow mid-level ridge. Beyond that time, the system is expected
to slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the
approach of Dolores to its east. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for
the more northward initial position.

The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next
couple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
over relatively warm water. There does appear to be a fair amount
of stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could
limit the amount of intensification that occurs. Beyond 48 hours,
the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier
air mass. These conditions should provoke weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model. It is worth noting that none of the
intensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2015071306, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1261W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better
organized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and
more persistent convection near the center. Given the improved
satellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected
to upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory. The
tropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into
an area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear.
Most of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity
forecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side
of the model envelope.

After a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving
northwestward at about 9 kt. The track should gradually bend back
to the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm
is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is
rather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to
the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north. Overall, the
guidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points,
and the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the
southeast of the consensus at most forecast times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 16.8N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 19.3N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly
fragmented. Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from
ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus
Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt. A partial pass by
the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force
winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center.

It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining
organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has
limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below
26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear
- which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt
out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the
western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these
effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after
a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about
four days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the
multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from
the previous NHC forecast.

Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due
to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been
unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a
west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today. It
is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has
begun this turn toward the west-northwest. After moving toward the
west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next
three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a
remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow
weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this
scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel
consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted
track from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

Enrique continues to produce a limited amount of deep convection,
likely due to the stable air mass that it is embedded within.
Satellite images show a small area of thunderstorms just north of
the center and a more organized band over the northeastern
quadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, but Dvorak
T-numbers suggest that this could be generous. Little change in
strength is expected during the next day or two. After that time,
however, weakening is forecast when the storm moves over water
cooler than 26 C and into an environment of higher wind shear. The
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and is
in good agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The storm has made the expected turn to the left, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. A continued west-northwestward
motion at about the same speed is predicted for the next 2 to 3 days
while Enrique remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. After
that time, a considerable slowdown is expected, when the steering
currents collapse in response to Hurricane Dolores to the east and a
deep-layer trough extending southwestward from the west coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of
the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 16.8N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.3N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.9N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.9N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

The center is now embedded within the deep convection, which, in
fact, has increased during the past several hours. The upper-level
outflow has also expanded westward and became better defined.
Consequently, the Dvorak numbers are a little higher at 1200 UTC.
Data from ASCAT indicate that the cyclone's intensity is 40 kt, and
these winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of
the center. Enrique is now crossing a small tongue of warm waters,
and this probably caused the slight increase in organization. Soon,
the circulation will move over cooler waters, and on this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for little change in strength today with a
gradual weakening thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 72 hours or sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 305/8 kt. The cyclone is
is forecast to continue on a track between the northwest and the
west-northwest during the next couple of days, steered by the
flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days,
these steering currents are forecast to collapse due to the approach
of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely, Enrique
will meander until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 20.0N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 20.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 20.3N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 18:08:28 N Lon : 129:39:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1002.2mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -66.0C Cloud Region Temp : -50.0C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*