EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 18:26:59 N Lon : 110:02:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Eye cooling.

[KBBOCA]

I can't believe how QUIET it is in here. I figured even with nothing exciting in the Atlantic, at least a Cat 4 storm in the EPAC would provoke at least some interesting discussion. But I guess not...

And it's not just here. Wunderground is dead too. I've never seen the comments on Jeff Master's blog so slow as in recent weeks. This is really sad for those of us who like weather blogs & forums to provide a bit of distraction and interest during the summer. Sigh...

[galaxy401]

I can't believe how QUIET it is in here. I figured even with nothing exciting in the Atlantic, at least a Cat 4 storm in the EPAC would provoke at least some interesting discussion. But I guess not...

And it's not just here. Wunderground is dead too. I've never seen the comments on Jeff Master's blog so slow as in recent weeks. This is really sad for those of us who like weather blogs & forums to provide a bit of distraction and interest during the summer. Sigh...

There's just a lack of interest going on. This storm isn't threatening any land and not a lot of known posters live near the storm.

[KBBOCA]

There's just a lack of interest going on. This storm isn't threatening any land and not a lot of known posters live near the storm.

Oh sure, I understand totally. Normally I would hardly glance at the EPAC. I guess I just thought that wanting SOME storm to look at / discuss might drive more folks to talk about this system, especially since there was some talk of RI last night. But without recon, and any threat to land, I realize there isn't so much to talk about. I'm just moaning cause I'm bored!

[Yellow Evan]

I can't believe how QUIET it is in here. I figured even with nothing exciting in the Atlantic, at least a Cat 4 storm in the EPAC would provoke at least some interesting discussion. But I guess not...

And it's not just here. Wunderground is dead too. I've never seen the comments on Jeff Master's blog so slow as in recent weeks. This is really sad for those of us who like weather blogs & forums to provide a bit of distraction and interest during the summer. Sigh...

There's just a lack of interest going on. This storm isn't threatening any land and not a lot of known posters live near the storm.

Andres had a 19 page thread and it didn't affect land.

The storm is a threat to Soccoro Island anyhow.

[Yellow Evan]

200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1

Upper-atmosphere too warm.

[Yellow Evan]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/CO02_10M.TXT

Socorro Island obs.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's
eye since this morning. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt. Dolores is moving over
very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be
traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island.
Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before
reaching colder water. Gradual weakening is now forecast during the
next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the
forecast period. This forecast is very close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and
is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not
restrengthened.

Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and
the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt. A ridge is expected to
build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days,
which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours. After
that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance,
with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the
north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south. The
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right
and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[galaxy401]

Cloud tops are continuing to warm. Eye is still defined though.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the eye expansion, this might have finished an ERC.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks nice just warm.

[Ntxw]

Well modeled storm for sure. I think the lack of interest is a combination of a few things, the board generally has been slow as folks haven't been checking in (Atlantic related). Second I think the EPAC has spoiled us all so they may think ehh another EPAC system, every storm seemingly goes to cat 4. A cat 5 (hopefully fish) would probably give a jolt to interest.

[Ntxw]

Btw posted this over in the EPAC thread. Dolores thus far has added 11 units, and counting, of ACE bringing the EPAC to 72 units, which is double the amount at the same date last season.

[WeatherGuesser]

I can't believe how QUIET it is in here.

There's just a lack of interest going on.

These threads are hard to follow. Not much discussion, but multiple posts with seemingly the same information even if bits are different. Things are posted without any information as to why or what they mean. It's as if this is a met-to-met board only with no regard for the general public.

I just sit back, scan and say little. Maybe one out of ten or fifteen posts is something I can understand.

[Yellow Evan]

I can't believe how QUIET it is in here.

There's just a lack of interest going on.

These threads are hard to follow. Not much discussion, but multiple posts with seemingly the same information even if bits are different. Things are posted without any information as to why or what they mean. It's as if this is a met-to-met board only with no regard for the general public.

I just sit back, scan and say little. Maybe one out of ten or fifteen posts is something I can understand.

What's so hard to understand about the ADT posting or SHIPS outputs or discussion? If you have questions, don't hesitate to ask,

[Yellow Evan]

Well modeled storm for sure. I think the lack of interest is a combination of a few things, the board generally has been slow as folks haven't been checking in (Atlantic related). Second I think the EPAC has spoiled us all so they may think ehh another EPAC system, every storm seemingly goes to cat 4. A cat 5 (hopefully fish) would probably give a jolt to interest.

The board feels like how it does during the winter. Really the most active thread is the ENSO one.

Good point about the EPAC spoiling us all, but I think most Atlantic trackers would kill for something like this to happen in there basin. It's mid-summer so I also think some people are on vacation (I am, still not posting full time). The ones who aren't checking in are missing out on some fun though IMO as both the WPAC and EPAC have been on a roll lately.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a
major hurricane. Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite
distinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall
have warmed some during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering
the initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over
warm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for
about another 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is
forecast during that time. Afterwards Dolores is expected to move
over cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and
drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of
the previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance.

The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit.
Smoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate
of 300/05 kt. The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the
steering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next
couple of days. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to
turn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during
the next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western
periphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the
cyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja
California peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a
little to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with
a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

Enhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores
is exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with
its distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance,
large 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands. Decreasing
26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear
to be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern. For this advisory, the
initial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates. Because of Dolores'
annular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the
36 hour period. Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable
thermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should
cause the cyclone to weaken more quickly.

After smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term
motion is estimated to be 300/6. There is no significant change to
the track forecast philosophy. Dolores should continue to be
steered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and
move on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading
around the western periphery of the anticyclone. Much uncertainty
and large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours.
Global and hurricane models either show a turn toward the
west-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to
north-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching from the northwest. The NHC forecast basically splits
these two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and
is a little to the right of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

Looks slightly better.