EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Has to be a special advisory. Probably at 11PM PDT.




Hopefully it pulls a Celia and keeps going till Cat.5.

Compact core should raise that possibility.

It might. But the storm is too lopsided. It has 24 hours left and conditions go from favorable to perfect. After 18-24 hours, the storm is too close to the SST gradient for more deepening IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2015JUL15 043000 5.2 963.7 94.8 5.2 5.2 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -2.76 -76.01 EYE 12 IR 45.2 18.07 109.40 COMBO GOES15 36.0
2015JUL15 040000 5.2 963.6 94.8 5.2 5.2 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 7.44 -75.59 EYE -99 IR 45.2 18.15 109.25 COMBO GOES15 36.2
2015JUL15 033000 4.9 971.5 87.4 4.9 5.2 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 4.14 -75.10 EYE 14 IR 45.2 18.12 109.23 COMBO GOES15 36.2
2015JUL15 030000 4.6 977.3 79.6 4.6 5.2 6.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -4.16 -74.73 EYE 11 IR 45.2 18.10 109.19 COMBO GOES15 36.2

[Kingarabian]

Has to be a special advisory. Probably at 11PM PDT.



Hopefully it pulls a Celia and keeps going till Cat.5.

Compact core should raise that possibility.

It might. But the storm is too lopsided. It has 24 hours left and conditions go from favorable to perfect. After 18-24 hours, the storm is too close to the SST gradient for more deepening IMO.

Yeah I'm going by pure RI trends. Looks like it went from Cat.1 to Cat.3 in less than 4 hours. I'm not sure, could be mistaken, I think that's how Celia attained Cat. 5 status. Took off immediately and then went down rather quick.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah I'm going by pure RI trends. Looks like it went from Cat.1 to Cat.3 in less than 4 hours. I'm not sure, could be mistaken, I think that's how Celia attained Cat. 5 status. Took off immediately and then went down rather quick.

Best comparison here is Amanda IMO. Celia was further S and shear mostly took that apart. Celia mostly RI'd after it finally cleared an eye after failing to do so for days.

Regarding this storm's RI, it was from Cat 1 to Cat 3 IMO in around 5 hours. Similar to Amanda and to some extent Cristina.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 18:07:08 N Lon : 109:30:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 201507150530, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1820N, 10940W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, IM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO DT

115 knt and for the first time I can remember in my 12 years tracking these, constraints have been broken due to an EPAC TC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cat 4

EP, 05, 2015071506, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1095W, 115, 944, HU,

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I'm going by pure RI trends. Looks like it went from Cat.1 to Cat.3 in less than 4 hours. I'm not sure, could be mistaken, I think that's how Celia attained Cat. 5 status. Took off immediately and then went down rather quick.

Best comparison here is Amanda IMO. Celia was further S and shear mostly took that apart. Celia mostly RI'd after it finally cleared an eye after failing to do so for days.

Regarding this storm's RI, it was from Cat 1 to Cat 3 IMO in around 5 hours. Similar to Amanda and to some extent Cristina.

I relate it more to Celia because of the small window it had. Dolores hasn't intensified quickly until now.

[Kingarabian]

EP, 05, 201507150530, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1820N, 10940W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, IM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO DT

115 knt and for the first time I can remember in my 12 years tracking these, constraints have been broken due to an EPAC TC.

There shouldn't be many constraints in manual DT estimates. Maybe on tropical storms, but not on hurricanes who quickly intensify.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at sat imagery, this storm looks to have peaked for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions still get better though:

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 123 122 121 113 96 83 68 58 49 43 35
V (KT) LAND 115 120 123 122 121 113 96 83 68 58 49 43 35
V (KT) LGE mod 115 121 123 121 118 107 93 80 67 56 46 36 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 4 1 4 7 7 11 12 11 11 8 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 275 294 3 148 131 94 61 64 42 20 354 272 289
SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.5 25.8 24.8 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 144 140 134 128 121 111 100 95 92 87
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 67 68 63 63 59 61 56 55 52 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 37 39 37 38 37 37 37 36 34
850 MB ENV VOR 39 53 68 76 78 96 103 111 106 85 65 44 37
200 MB DIV 77 85 68 63 46 51 3 13 -2 3 -7 6 -5
700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 -2 -2 -4 1 -2 0 3
LAND (KM) 503 496 478 455 440 484 567 617 697 732 756 833 882
LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.8 23.0 24.6 26.1 27.3
LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.0 113.4 115.1 116.7 118.3 120.0 121.7 123.2 124.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

[Ntxw]

That little Soccoro Island is right in there again

[Yellow Evan]

Track shifed south, so EPAC SST gradient not an issue. Barring an ERC, intensification is possible till the 26C isotherm.

[Yellow Evan]

Viewing angle causing ADT to be too low

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 18:17:24 N Lon : 110:03:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.1mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +2.8C Cloud Region Temp : -65.2C

Satellite Name : GOES15 Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.6 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Hit a dry slot to its NW.

[Hurricane Jed]

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming
of the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since
the last advisory. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and
SAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt
based on the CI numbers. Low vertical wind shear and very warm
ocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next
12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4
hurricane during this period. Weakening is expected after 24 hours,
predominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the
guidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN
consensus thereafter. As will be discussed below, Dolores's
forecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the
cyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed
weakening.

Dolores's eye wobbled westward recently, but a longer-term motion
is 290/5 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico
should propel Dolores west-northwestward or even westward during
the next 72 hours. After that time, there are some model
differences regarding the strength of the ridge and whether Dolores
will turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. At the
extremes, the GFS maintains a strong ridge and keeps Dolores to the
south, while the ECMWF weakens the ridge off the California coast
and allows Dolores to turn northward. Despite these differences,
the overall guidance envelope has continued to shift southward, and
the updated NHC track forecast follows that trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.4N 110.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Aah. Didn't make it.

At least it looks respectable.

[Kingarabian]

GFS all over the place with its track forecasts. From being a fish to making landfall in California, and now reaching Hawaii and making landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

Has one more chance tonight to deepen, but shear could be affecting it now, but should relax to like 1 knot.

SHIPS has 1 knot of shear at 12 hours and 18 hours. But it also can't start an ERC.